EURODIPLOMATS IN ANKARA SAY TURKEY'S EU CANDIDACY

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ANKARA 007974

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR EUR/SE


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/06/2007
TAGS: PGOV PREL EU TU EU
SUBJECT: EURODIPLOMATS IN ANKARA SAY TURKEY'S EU CANDIDACY
GAINING MOMENTUM


REF: A)ANKARA 7766 B)ANKARA 7352 C)ANKARA 6116


Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch; reasons 1.5 b and d.



1. (C) Summary: EU-member-state diplomats in Ankara say the
EU is headed toward offering Turkey a conditional date for
accession talks, possibly in January 2004. Our contacts say
Germany holds the key; local German diplomats agree Berlin
feels under pressure not to block Turkey's candidacy. UK and
Danish diplomats say their countries strongly back Turkey.
The diplomats agree their governments are willing to work
with the newly elected AK Party government, though some are
wary of AK's perceived Islamist roots. End Summary.


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TURKEY'S CANDIDACY GAINING MOMENTUM
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2. (C) Poloff discussed the state of Turkey's EU candidacy
and the impact of the landslide victory of the
Islam-influenced AK Party in the November 3 national
elections (Reftel A) with German, Danish and British
diplomats November 4 and 5. The Eurodiplomats agreed
Turkey's candidacy has gained momentum since the October 9
release of EU Commission reports that did not recommend
offering Turkey a date for accession talks (Reftel B). They
said a strong consensus is emerging in favor of offering
Turkey a date to start accession talks, on the condition that
the GOT implements further reforms. According to our
contacts, the details will not be hammered out until shortly
before the December 12-13 EU Summit in Copenhagen, but one
scenario being widely discussed in EU circles would establish
the following steps: Turkey's candidacy will be reviewed
again at the December 2003 EU Summit; if Turkey at that time
meets political criteria for membership, accession talks will
begin in January 2004. A Danish diplomat said this was the
best-case scenario, possible if there is a breakthrough on
Cyprus and a strong commitment by the new Turkish government
to the EU membership process before the December Summit. A
weaker version of the EU offer would state that Turkey will
start accession talks at an unspecified date in 2004.


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GOT WANTS 2003 DATE
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3. (C) GOT officials accept privately that the EU will attach
conditions to any date offered. Still, they insist the EU
must mention a specific date, preferably in 2003, before 10
new states become members in 2004. Inan Ozyildiz, foreign
affairs advisor to the President, told Poloff the Turkish
public will not understand if countries such as Malta and
Lithuania, not to mention Cyprus, join the EU before Turkey
has even begun accession talks. He said Turks are very
proud, and may turn their back on the EU if they feel
slighted. Also, he said, the new members might try to block
Turkey's accession once they attain EU voting rights. The
Ankara-based Eurodiplomats said they are aware of Turkish
sensitivities, but the EU members also have to worry about
their own constituencies. By offering to start talks in
January 2004, the EU would be setting a date far enough in
the future to ease member-state anxieties about Turkey, but
early enough to show the Turks they are being treated fairly.


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BERLIN FEELING THE HEAT
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4. (C) According to our contacts, Germany holds the key to
the December Summit. They say other major EU states are
either supportive of Turkey's candidacy or are staying on the
sidelines. The UK appears to be Turkey's strongest backer --
a British diplomat told Poloff the UK will do everything it
can to see that the EU offers Turkey a forward-leaning
conditional date. Term president Denmark and Italy are
apparently also very supportive. France is a mystery -- both
the GOT and diplomats from other EU states have told Emboffs
they don't know where Paris stands. Most of the smaller
states are indifferent, and Greece is no longer putting up
opposition. Two German diplomats told Poloff Berlin does not
want to be seen as the obstacle in Turkey's path. "If Turkey
does not get in, they will blame us," one of them said. They
lamented the fact that Germany, which would be most affected
by Turkish membership, is being pressured by other countries
with a much smaller stake in the matter. They said they were
caught off guard when German FM Fischer recently made public
statements strongly supporting Turkey's candidacy. The
German Embassy is usually more pro-Turkey than Berlin, and
now the positions are reversed.



5. (C) A Danish diplomat told Poloff his government has
noticed a sudden change in Germany's approach. At the
October 21-22 EU Foreign Ministers meeting, both Fischer and
UK FS Straw urged participants to think about Turkey as a
strategic ally in the struggle against terrorism. The EU,
they said, needed to support Turkey to show that Islam could
co-exist with democracy and prosperity. The Danish diplomat
noted that in the past the UK had been alone in making this
U.S.-style argument in EU meetings. "They (the Germans) are
starting to talk like you guys," he said.


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SIGNIFICANCE OF GOT REFORMS SINKS IN
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6. (C) The Eurodiplomats said EU support for Turkey is
increasing primarily because the significance of the GOT's
recent reforms has begun to sink in. In particular, they
said, EU states were surprised by the extent of the GOT's
August reform package (Reftel C),which dealt with the most
sensitive issues -- such as the death penalty and Kurdish
language rights -- that the GOT had avoided in earlier reform
efforts. Before August, EU-member governments had assumed
Turkey would be so far from meeting membership criteria that
its candidacy would not have to be seriously addressed at the
December Summit. Now, they understand the GOT has launched a
serious reform effort that the EU must help keep on track.


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EU WILLING TO WORK WITH AK
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7. (C) It is not yet clear how the electoral triumph of the
Islam-influenced AK party will affect this process. The
Eurodiplomats said their governments were determined to give
AK the benefit of the doubt, given the party's pro-EU stance
during the campaign. Still, there are anxieties below the
surface in some EU capitals about AK's perceived Islamist
roots, according to our contacts. The German diplomats said
AK's rise to power is "not a boost" to Turkey's candidacy, as
it will heighten fears among the German public about taking
in a large, Muslim country as an EU member.






PEARSON