TURKEY'S ELECTIONS: OUR ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ANKARA 007726

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E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/04/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL ECON TU
SUBJECT: TURKEY'S ELECTIONS: OUR ANALYSIS AND PREDICTIONS

REF: ANKARA 7713


(U) Classified by DCM Robert Deutsch. Reason: 1.5(b)(d)



1. (C) Summary: The Islam-influenced AK (Justice and
Development) of R. Tayyip Erdogan will be the clear winner in
the Turkish national elections on Nov. 3, and has a strong
shot at a Parliamentary majority. Deniz Baykal's
Establishmentarian, left-of-center Republican Peoples' Party
(CHP) will probably finish second, though the gap between it
and the rest of the pack will be relatively small. How other
major parties will fare -- and whether they make it over the
10% national vote threshold and into Parliament -- may well
now be the critical factor for Turkey's immediate politicfal
future. End summary.


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AK is Here
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2. (C) AK will win big. The party's own poll numbers suggest
that it will get at least 30 percent of the vote. In our
view, such figures represent low-end, conservative estimates
sustained over a considerable period of time. We are
inclined to put AK in the mid-30s at least, with a legitimate
shot at still more.


-- The remaining question is not whether AK will win a
plurality of the vote, but by how much -- and whether its
margin of victory will grant it a parliamentary majority,
perhaps one sufficient (367 of 550 seats) to amend Turkey's
Kemalist constitution. This is well within the realm of the
possible.


-- Continuing last-ditch efforts by the Deep State to clip
the party's wings and shave its vote tally could have an
impact on the outcome -- with observers divided over whether
such moves will generate a popular reaction that could
actually enhance rather than limit AK's numbers. Recent
ham-handed attempts by the State to undercut AK include: 1)
Appeals Court and Election Board decisions to rule Erdogan
ineligible to stand for elections; 2) the recent filing of a
closure case against AK; 3) statements by President Sezer
widely interpreted as hinting he might not grant the mandate
to form a government to a victorious AK; and 4) last-minute
legal proceedings raising the possibility of post-election
annulment of AK votes on yet another technicality --
Erdogan's name is still listed on the ballot as Party
Chairman.


-- Supporters of the Islamist Saadet Party and former P.M.
Necmettin Erbakan, its de facto leader, are also sensing an
AK victory and appear to be gravitating to Erdogan, which
would keep Saadet on the sidelines after Nov. 3.


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CHP Second by Default
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3. (C) CHP will wind up a distant second, probably in the
mid-teens though with an outside shot at 20 percent of the
vote on election day. CHP is trying to portray itself as the
Kemalist Establishment's champion and only viable alternative
to AK. However, CHP has done little to capture the popular
imagination, and indeed has alienated many centrist voters.
Whereas AK support cuts across a broad swath of the
socio-political pie, CHP's appeal is confined to
left-of-center urban voters. Moreover, CHP has made numerous
strategic and tactical errors that are costing it the chance
to monopolize the roughly 30 percent of the vote that
traditionally is apportioned to the left here. As Kemal
Dervis -- whose candidacy for CHP is proving more
controversial than the secularist Establishment had expected
-- confided to us this week, CHP is not making the progress
it wanted. He also lamented once again his decision to
abandon the New Turkey (YT) Party of Ismail Cem.


-- CHP local activists show none of the enthusiasm for Baykal
and the party that is the rule on the AK side. A CHP
activist in Zongludak, a Black Sea haven of the labor
constituency, expressed concern that divisive Baykal would
"bring the country down" if he becomes Prime Minister. A
journalist at the Kemalist Cumhuriyet daily told us he would
vote for Baykal, even though "I hate him."


-- CHP, moreover, has failed to monopolize the Aegean region,
which was crucial to the victory of Bulent Ecevit's
Democratic Left (DSP) in 1999.


-- Notably, Izzetin Dogan, one of the leading voices of an
Alevi community that has traditionally backed the center-left
and CHP, is signaling publicly that his co-religionists are
not in any way indebted to CHP, nor should they feel
compelled to vote for it.


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Curtains for Current GOT Parties
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4. (C) Despite Ecevit's full-court effort to stoke secularist
and nationalist fears among an anxious electorate, his DSP
looks set to finish below the 10% national vote threshold and
out of Parliament -- though it could pull in sufficient votes
to hurt CHP. Similarly D/P.M. Mesut Yilmaz' ANAP
(Motherland) is playing its support for EU-related
democratization for all its worth, and the party gets credit
on the local level and for some of its regional candidates.
Nevertheless, ANAP appears to need a miracle to overcome
general public distrust of Yilmaz and reach the threshold.
Voters also seem set to punish Deputy P.M. Devlet Bahceli's
Nationalist Movement Party (MHP) by keeping it out of the
next Parliament. MHP's militant grassroots see Bahceli as
failing to deliver on his ultranationalist campaign promises.
However, the MHP base has a reputation for blind loyalty and
could return to the fold on election day.


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Genc and the Rest
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5. (C) The Genc (Youth) Parti of Motorola deadbeat Cem Uzan
could well emerge as the surprise of the 2002 race. Some
observers compare the rise of Genc to that of MHP, which came
in from the political fringe to capture 18% of the vote in
the 1999 elecitons. Genc and MHP share some of the same
xenophobic and populist ideological convictions and compete
for the same constituency -- MHP insiders admit to us
privately that Genc is cutting into their support base.
Nevertheless, there are some significant differences. Uzan
has vast media and financial resources denied to MHP. On the
other hand, MHP, unlike Genc, has a decades-long track record
and is a known quantity among voters, attributes that made it
a viable "protest" vehicle for disaffected voters in 1999.
While some of our contacts dismiss Genc's chances to clear
the 10% threshold, others insist in might attract up to
12-14% on election day -- which would threaten CHP's hold on
second place.


-- Another potential surprise is the pro-Kurdish DEHAP
(Democratic People's Party),which is within striking
distance of the vote threshold. Like previous pro-Kurdish
parties, DEHAP is set to dominate in the Kurdish southeast
(with AK a possible second). Unlike its predecessors, DEHAP
seems to have picked up support from migrant Kurds in the
western cities, in central Anatolia, and even in the Black
Sea region -- votes which in the past have gone to Erbakan
and his Islamist parties.


-- The True Path Party (DYP) of Tansu Ciller is on the bubble
but, according to various contacts, has gained ground among
rural Anatolian voters in recent weeks and might well reach
the threshold (reftel).


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Comment: Get Ready
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6. (C) The race for 10% is still not completely decided --
and so neither is the breakdown of the post-election
Parliament, which could host as few as two and as many as six
parties. The outcome will also have a major impact on how
seats are apportioned, and thus, on the potential AK majority
or on leaders' calculations as to possible coalition
alternatives. The bottom line: whatever the ultimate
arithmetical outcome, we should expect significant changes in
Turkey.
PEARSON