MEPI REACTION: AMMAN

UNCLAS SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 007349

SIPDIS

STATE FOR NEA/PPD (MCGUINNESS, CBOURGEOIS),R, NEA/ARN,
NEA/P (ACASPER)

E.O. 12958: N/A
TAGS: KPAO PREL KISL JO
SUBJECT: MEPI REACTION: AMMAN


1. SUMMARY: THE MEPI AND SECRETARY POWELL'S SPEECH HAVE
DOMINATED JORDANIAN EDITORIAL PAGES IN RECENT DAYS, WITH
REACTION BEST DESCRIBED AS COMPLEX: SOME WRITERS HAVE
WELCOMED THE INITIATIVE, EXPRESSING A KIND OF RELIEF AT THE
ACCURATE IDENTIFICATION OF CORE DEFICIENCIES PLAGUING ARAB
SOCIETIES (IF MIXED WITH AN ADMITTED DEGREE OF "SHAME" THAT
IT WAS THE U.S. THAT DID SO AND SUSPICION OF TRUE U.S.
MOTIVES),WHILE OTHERS HAVE REJECTED THE INITIATIVE AS AN
APPARENT U.S. PALLIATIVE MEANT TO DISTRACT ARABS FROM THE
REAL DANGERS IN THEIR MIDST: UNLIMITED US SUPPORT FOR ISRAEL
AND THREATS AGAINST IRAQ. OTHER COMMENTATORS HAVE MADE THE
POINT THAT THE INITIATIVE TEMPTS GREAT DANGER: THAT BY
ENCOURAGING GREATER DEMOCRACY IN THE REGION AT A TIME WHEN
ISLAMIST MOVEMENTS ARE VIEWED AS THE BEST ORGANIZED
POLITICAL ELEMENTS IN MANY ARAB SOCIETIES (AND FEEDING OFF
WIDESPREAD OPPOSITION TO US POLICIES TO FURTHER ENHANCE
THEIR POPULAR APPEAL),THE RESULT CAN ONLY BE FURTHER
RADICALIZATION AND INSTABILITY HERE. PRIVATELY, SOME IN THE
BUSINESS COMMUNITY HAVE EXPRESSED DISAPPOINTMENT THAT
SPECIAL MENTION OF JORDAN'S ONGOING ECONOMIC REFORM EFFORTS
WERE NOT HIGHLIGHTED MORE IN THE SECRETARY'S SPEECH.
OVERALL, THE ANNOUNCEMENT HAS ALREADY HAD THE POSITIVE
EFFECT OF STIMULATING AN IMPORTANT DEBATE ON DEMOCRATIZATION
AND REFORM, AS WITNESSED FIRST-HAND WHEN PAO AND USAID
MISSION DIRECTOR PRE-BRIEFED INFLUENTIAL JORDANIAN
COLUMNISTS PRIOR TO THE SPEECH. END SUMMARY.


2. SECRETARY POWELL'S MEPI SPEECH RECEIVED FRONT-PAGE
COVERAGE IN ALL JORDANIAN DAILIES ON FRIDAY, 12/13, AND HAS
BEEN THE DOMINANT ISSUE IN THE EDITORIAL PAGES SINCE. POST
IS REPORTING SEPARATELY, IN STANDARD "MEDIA REACTION"
FORMAT, SYNOPSES OF INDIVIDUAL OP-ED COLUMNS REGARDING THE
MEPI ANNOUNCEMENT; THIS CABLE ATTEMPTS TO CRYSTALLIZE SOME
OF THE PRINCIPAL COMMENTARY WE HAVE SEEN IN JORDAN ON THE
ISSUE.


3. PA AMMAN ROLLED OUT THE MEPI LOCALLY WITH A PRE-BRIEFING
FOR INFLUENTIAL JORDANIAN COLUMNISTS, CONDUCTED DECEMBER 12
BY THE PAO AND USAID MISSION DIRECTOR. THIS SESSION
REVEALED THE MIXED VIEWS BORNE OUT IN SUBSEQUENT PUBLISHED
COMMENTARY ON THE SPEECH. IN GENERAL, THE COLUMNISTS WE
BRIEFED WERE SUPPORTIVE OF US EFFORTS TO ENCOURAGE
POLITICAL, ECONOMIC AND EDUCATIONAL REFORM IN THE REGION,
BUT EXPRESSED SKEPTICISM ABOUT HOW SUCH EFFORTS WOULD BE
VIEWED GIVEN WIDESPREAD DISAGREEMENT WITH US POLICY TOWARD
THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT AND IRAQ. THE US POSITION ON THE
ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN DISPUTE WAS THE "MAGIC KEY" TO GAINING
ACCEPTANCE FOR OTHER US INITIATIVES IN THE REGION, ONE
COLUMNIST SAID -- A FAILURE TO MAKE CHANGES ON THAT ISSUE
WOULD MAKE INSIGNIFICANT THE IMPACT OF THE MEPI ON BROADER
US EFFORTS TO IMPROVE ITS IMAGE IN THE REGION. THIS
AUDIENCE ALSO FOCUSED ON THE PURPORTED PARADOX WHEREBY THE
US WOULD ENCOURAGE INCREASED POLITICAL PARTICIPATION IN
COUNTRIES WHERE IT MAINTAINS FRIENDLY RELATIONS WITH
GOVERNMENTS PERCEIVED AS HOSTILE TO INCREASED POLITICAL
OPENNESS.

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FEARS OF SUCCESS: GAINS BY ISLAMISTS
--------------


4. THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE MEPI MIGHT LEAD TO FURTHER
POLITICAL GAINS BY ISLAMISTS TOUCHED OFF A LIVELY DISCUSSION
IN OUR MEETING WITH COLUMNISTS. AS THE BEST ORGANIZED AND
MOST RESPECTED (AMONG THE MASSES) POLITICAL MOVEMENTS AT
PRESENT, ISLAMIST PARTIES WOULD BE THE PRINCIPAL
BENEFICIARIES OF REAL STEPS TOWARD DEMOCRACY, SEVERAL OF
THEM ARGUED. IN ADDITION, "UNBALANCED" US POLICIES TOWARDS
THE PALESTINIANS AND IRAQ ARE ONLY FUELING THIS TENDENCY AND
BOOSTING THE CHANCES OF ISLAMIST TAKE-OVERS. "WAS AMERICA
AWARE OF THIS DANGER BEFORE IT DECIDED TO LAUNCH THE
INITIATIVE?", ONE OF OUR GUESTS ASKED. ANOTHER, A SELF-
DESCRIBED "LIBERAL", SAID THAT THE REGION WAS IN DESPARATE
NEED OF MORE DEMOCRACY, BUT HE FEARED THAT AMERICA'S NATURAL
ALLIES IN THIS EFFORT (E.G., OTHER LIBERALS) WOULD SHY AWAY
FROM EMBRACING THE INITIATIVE OUT OF DEEP-SEEDED
DISAPPOINTMENT WITH OTHER U.S. POLICIES IN THE REGION AND
SUSPICIONS ABOUT TRUE U.S. MOTIVES. THIS SAME WRITER SAID
IN A COLUMN 12/14 IN THE ARABIC DAILY AL ARAB AL YAMM: "WE
WELCOME THIS POSITIVE AND CONSTRUCTIVE POSITION BECAUSE WE
VALUE DEMOCRACY AND YEARN TO BE ABLE TO ENJOY IT. WE
CHALLENGE THE AMERICAN ADMINISTRATION TO IMPLEMENT THIS
INITIATIVE AS A PACKAGE, AND WE SHALL ASSUME THAT POWELL'S
WORDS SPRING FROM REAL CONVICTION. BUT WE MUST REPEAT TO
THE U.S. ADMINISTRATION FOR THE THOUSANDTH TIME THAT THE KEY
TO GAINING THE CONFIDENCE OF THE ARAB PEOPLES IS THROUGH
SOLVING THE PALESTINAIN PROBLEM."

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REJECTIONISTS AND THE OPPOSITE VIEW
--------------


6. THE INITIATIVE HAS ALSO MET WITH OUTRIGHT REJECTION BY
CERTAIN QUARTERS. IN OUR BRIEFING OF COLUMNISTS, ONE WRITER
SAID THAT "ANY NEW US ASSISTANCE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
INITIATIVE WILL AMOUNT TO NOTHING NEXT TO THE DESTRUCTION
YOU WILL SOON UNLEASH ON IRAQ." THIS SAME WRITER CLAIMED AN
INCONSISTENCY IN THE INITIATIVE'S CALL FOR GREATER POLITICAL
PARTICIPATION, "WHILE THE US WORKS TO DRAW UP ITS OWN TERMS
FOR SUCCESS" IN THE UPCOMING PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY
ELECTIONS. FOR ITS PART, THE MUSLIM BROTHERHOOD-AFFILIATED
JORDANIAN "ISLAMIC ACTION FRONT" (IAF) ISSUED A STATEMENT
DECEMBER 16 THAT READ, IN PART: "REAL PARTNERSHIP WILL
EMERGE ONLY WHEN ALL U.S. FORCES LEAVE OUR COUNTRIES AND
WHEN THE UNITED STATES STOPS THREATENING US AND INCITING
AGAINST US AND WHEN IT STOPS SUPPORTING OUR ENEMIES AND
PROVIDING THEM WITH PROTECTION. WE WANT DEMOCRACY AS A
NATIONAL CHOICE, NOT AS A U.S. RECIPE."


7. ON THE OTHER HAND, WE HAVE HEARD PRIVATELY FROM BUSINESS
AND EVEN SOME GOVERNMENT CONTACTS SOME DISAPPOINTMENT THAT
JORDAN'S OWN ECONOMIC REFORM EFFORTS WERE NOT HIGHLIGHTED
MORE SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE SECRETARY'S SPEECH AS AN EXAMPLE
OF THE KIND OF DIFFICULT, BUT ULTIMATELY REWARDING, STEPS
REQUIRED TO BREAK LOOSE THE ECONOMIES OF THE REGION. A DAY
PRIOR TO THE SPEECH, KING ABDULLAH OFFERED STRONG PRAISE FOR
MEPI IN REMARKS ADDRESSED VIA DIGITAL VIDEO CONFERENCE TO
BUSINESS PEOPLE AND INVESTORS IN JORDAN, WASHINGTON AND FIVE
ARAB CAPITALS IN AN EVENT RELATED TO THE ONE-YEAR
ANNIVERSARY OF THE U.S.- JORDAN FREE TRADE AGREEMENT. THE
JORDANIAN BUSINESS COMMUNITY IS PROUD OF THE ECONOMIC GROWTH
JORDAN HAS MANAGED TO ACHIEVE IN THE YEAR SINCE THE ENTRY-
INTO-FORCE OF THE FTA, ESPECIALLY AS OTHER ECONOMIES IN THE
REGION HAVE CONTINUED TO SLIDE.

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AN OPENING OF THE DEBATE
--------------


8. AMONG THE MORE POSITIVE REACTIONS WE HAVE SEEN IS A
TREND AMONG A NUMBER OF PROGRESSIVE AND INFLUENTIAL OPINION
WRITERS (AND OTHER PA CONTACTS) WHO HAVE WELCOMED THE
OPPORTUNITY TO GET THESE ISSUES ON THE TABLE AND INTO THE
PUBLIC DEBATE. URAIB RINTAWI, A PROMINENT DAILY COLUMNIST
WROTE IN AL-DUSTOOR 12/14: "THE NEED FOR POLITICAL,
ECONOMIC, ADMINSITRATIVE AND FISCAL REFORM IN THE ARAB WORLD
IS REAL, EVEN IF IT IS THE AMERICANS THAT TELL US ABOUT IT.
WE SHOULD NOT SUSPEND DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS WAITING FOR A
SOLUTION TO THE ARAB-ISRAELI CONFLICT." SIMILARLY, IN A
PIECE ON 12/16 IN SEMI-OFFICIAL AL-RAI, COLUMNIST JAMAL AL-
TAHAT SAID: "THE VALUE OF THE INITIATIVE DOES NOT LIE IN
THE FUNDS ALLOCATED TO IT, BUT IN THE IDEA ON WHICH IT IS
BASED. BUT IT IS ALSO AN EXPRESSION OF A TOTAL ARAB
FAILURE, TO THE POINT WHERE IT SEEMS THE U.S. IS SIDING WITH
THE ARABS AGAINST THEIR OWN IGNORANCE." AT A PA-ORGANIZED
DISCUSSION PROGRAM FOR JORDANIAN STUDENTS ON "THE ROLE OF
THINK TANKS IN FORMULATING U.S. FOREIGN POLICY" AT THE
EMBASSY ON 12/16, NUMEROUS PARTICIPANTS WERE AWARE OF THE
MEPI AND EXPRESSED INTEREST IN HOW IT MIGHT ADVANCE, FOR
INSTANCE, OPPORTUNITIES FOR WOMEN IN JORDAN. IN SUM, U.S.
ENCOURAGEMENT OF ARAB REFORM STRUCK A LOUD CHORD IN JORDAN,
EVEN IF DISTRUST OF U.S. OBJECTIVES IN THE REGION IS ALSO AN
ISSUE IN THE DEBATE WE HAVE SPARKED.
GNEHM