USINT BAGHDAD CHIEF BERNACKI SAYS IRAQIS ARE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 005490

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/23/2012
TAGS: PREL XF IZ
SUBJECT: USINT BAGHDAD CHIEF BERNACKI SAYS IRAQIS ARE
GETTING READY

Classified By: Ambassador Edward W. Gnehm. Reasons 1.5 (b,d)

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (C) USINT Baghdad Chief Krzysztof Bernacki, in meetings
with the Ambassador and other Embassy officials on September
23, provided his latest impressions of life in Baghdad.
Bernacki, who returned to Baghdad September 6 after a month's
leave, said the Iraqi regime, and average Iraqis themselves,
are taking steps to prepare for U.S. military action. More
security forces have appeared on the streets of the capital
and Iraqis have begun stockpiling provisions. Those with the
means to do so are making plans to leave the capital when
military operations begin. Bernacki noted that Iraq's recent
West Asian Football Championship victory provided an
opportunity to see (and hear) how widespread private gun
ownership is in Baghdad and how undisciplined Iraqi soldiers
can be. After Iraq won the championship, the city was ablaze
with all variety of gunfire: "I thought the war had started,"
he said. Finally, he passed on a rumor making the rounds in
Baghdad diplomatic circles that after the President's UNGA
address, the Saudis offered asylum to Saddam and his family
-- an offer Saddam turned down. End Summary.

-------------- --------------
Security on the Streets; Preparations to Get Out of Town
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Bernacki said that he had noticed a significant
increase of Iraqi security forces -- both uniformed and
plainclothed -- on the streets of the capital. While ever
present before, "one or two are now stationed on every street
corner." Security around government buildings and ministries
has also been beefed up somewhat, from an average of four per
building to six or eight. He also reported having seen a
noticeable increase of individuals he assumes to be
intelligence officers positioned on the street and in
buildings near the U.S. Interest Section. Those increases
notwithstanding, Bernacki said he has not seen any large
concentrations of troops moving or otherwise present in the
center of Baghdad, nor any visible signs of dissent or
anti-regime behavior (graffiti, etc.) anywhere.


3. (C) Bernacki said that many people appear to be making use
of the double rations the government has been distributing
for the past 2-3 months to stockpile provisions. He has also
heard rumors that "people are looking for ways to get out of
the city when fighting begins. They are building shelters in
the countryside." Asked about how he thought most Iraqis
would respond to a U.S.-led military action, Bernacki
predicted that most would neither fight for the regime or
join an uprising. They would stay inside their homes and
when it's over "will come out and cheer. People are fearful
about what regime change will bring -- whether fighting will
be swift or prolonged, about the uncertainty of it all -- but
not about regime change itself."

-------------- --------------
Has War Begun? No, That's Just A Cheer for the Home Team
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Bernacki passed on a vignette about Iraq's September 7
victory in the West Asian Football Championship that provides
a vivid example of the extent of private gun ownership in
Baghdad and the level of discipline (or lack thereof) of the
Iraqi military. After the Iraqi team won, "the whole city
was out firing anything they had. It went on for about an
hour an a half." Bernacki said he saw and heard heavy
machine gun fire, pistols and other small arms. He even saw
anti-aircraft batteries firing wildly into the air: "for a
minute, I thought the war had begun! Then I found out it was
about the game." Bernacki noted that there is a standing
Presidential order forbidding anyone from firing weapons into
the air for celebration, an order that was widely ignored the
night of the game. Offering his own interpretation of what
he had seen and heard, Bernacki observed that "after all they
have been through over the years, Iraqis badly want to be on
the winning side. They want a success."

--------------
Saudi Offer of Asylum?
--------------


5. (C) Finally, Bernacki passed on a rumor that has been
making the rounds in Baghdad's diplomatic community.
According to Russian and Spanish diplomats there, the Saudis
-- through an envoy dispatched to Baghdad immediately
following the President's UNGA speech -- supposedly offered
asylum to Saddam and his family in Saudi Arabia. Saddam, to
no one's great surprise, turned the Saudis down.
GNEHM