PUBLIC'S UNEASINESS ABOUT DIRECTION OF

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004506

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV IZ IS JO
SUBJECT: PUBLIC'S UNEASINESS ABOUT DIRECTION OF
U.S.-JORDANIAN RELATIONSHIP

REF: SECSTATE 139546

Classified By: DCM Gregory L. Berry for Reasons 1.5 (B) and (D)

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) Despite healthy bilateral economic, trade,
political, and military ties, confusion and uncertainty about
recent developments on both bilateral and regional issues
have made many Jordanians uneasy about the direction of the
US-Jordan relationship. The press has pulled together a
number of issues -- delays in visa issuance to students,
public discussion of the MARLO notice of possible MIF
searches in the Red Sea/Gulf of Aqaba, press speculation
about U.S. intentions toward Iraq -- as signs of U.S.
unhappiness with Jordan. The general edginess of the
Jordanian public is likely to be a continuing factor in the
government's calculations on policy pronouncements across the
board. End Summary.

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AREN'T YOU OUR FRIENDS ANYMORE?
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2. (S) Several recent events -- U.S. press stories alleging
that the US is basing troops in Jordan for an offensive
against Iraq, the controversy over the participation of
Prince Hassan in a meeting of exiled Iraqi officers in
London, the public discussion of the month-old announcement
of possible MIF inspections of ships in the Red Sea, and
lengthened processing time for visas (see reftel) -- have
caught the attention of Jordanians both in and out of
government. The confluence of these events over the past
month has caused some Jordanians to wonder about the
direction of Jordan's relationship with the U.S. Ongoing
violence in Israel and the West Bank/Gaza and rising regional
tension because of speculation about a U.S. military strike
on Iraq are compounding this uneasiness about the
U.S.-Jordanian relationship.

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IRAQ: THE GOVERNMENT AND THE PUBLIC
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3. (S) In Jordan, the GOJ has been on the defensive for the
last month vis-a-vis its position on Iraq. Jordanian
officials first scrambled to confront U.S. press stories
outlining Jordan's alleged role in a U.S. offensive against
Iraq. The government's overreaction -- a too-strong denial
of the presence of U.S. forces in the Kingdom -- and the
King's ill-considered public statements in London succeeded
only in convincing many Jordanians (and especially the press)
that the U.S. media reports of Jordan as a "launching pad"
for an attack must be true. Former Crown Prince Hassan's
highly visible role at a meeting of exiled Iraqi military
officers in London further fueled speculation that Jordan was
somehow angling for a Hashemite role after regime change in
Iraq.


4. (C) In this context, MARLO's announcement of the
possibility of resumed MIF inspections of ships leaving Aqaba
was given great belated play in the press. At a time when
senior GOJ officials -- including the King -- were trying to
calm a suspicious public about Jordanian policy on Iraq, the
MIF announcement was widely interpreted as an expression of
U.S. unhappiness with Jordan or pressure on the GOJ.

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VISAS
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5. (C) Jordanians, particularly those getting ready to send
their children to the U.S. for education or medical
treatment, have been surprised and deeply worried by the long
waits for visas. The lengthened processing time due to the
Visas Condor program -- and particularly the Consular
Section's inability to tell visa applicants when/whether they
will be permitted to travel -- resulted in several rumors
claiming that the U.S. had stopped issuing visas to
Jordanians altogether. Senior GOJ officials have been
swamped with requests to intervene with the Embassy to speed
up visa issuance. A senior MFA contact complained to us this
week that the visa issue alone had so distracted GOJ
officials that many took it as a sign of U.S. unhappiness
with Jordan. Our argument that security concerns are
paramount meets with considerable sympathy in the abstract,
but the more sophisticated of our contacts insist that an
American-educated political elite is a key investment in the
future. The less sophisticated simply put in a plea for
children, nieces, nephews, or cousins.

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COMMENT
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6. (S) Many of our interlocutors seem to have given in to
the worry that recent events represent a negative shift in
U.S. attitudes towards Jordan -- objective evidence of the
strength of relations notwithstanding. In a tense region
with no relief in sight, anxiety among the public is probably
inevitable, but is nonetheless a problem for officials
mapping out responsible policies on the MEPP and Iraq while
looking over their shoulders at a dissatisfied and uneasy
public.


Gnehm