IRAQI, TURKISH FONMINS VISIT AMMAN: FOCUS ON

S E C R E T AMMAN 004443

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/08/2022
TAGS: PREL IZ TU JO
SUBJECT: IRAQI, TURKISH FONMINS VISIT AMMAN: FOCUS ON
IRAQ, BUT NO MOVEMENT


Classified By: Amb. Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D)

--------------
IRAQI FONMIN IN AMMAN...
--------------


1. (S) Iraqi FonMin Naji Sabri visited Amman August 6 and
met with King Abdullah, PM Ali Abul Ragheb, and FonMin Marwan
Muasher. In an August 8 conversation with the Ambassador,
Muasher said that Sabri was clearly concerned about what King
Abdullah had discussed regarding Iraq during the King's trip
to the U.S. last week -- although Sabri did not ask about the
King's discussions directly. According to Muasher, the King
told Sabri that he was frustrated with Iraqi regime policy:
even though he has tried to give good advice to Iraq, the
regime never listens. Muasher said that when the King told
Sabri that Iraq should immediately implement all applicable
UNSCRs, "we did not get any positive reaction." Sabri
repeated his public line that Iraq is prepared to cooperate
with UN weapons inspectors, but only as part of an overall
deal involving the lifting of sanctions. The King, Muasher
claimed, told Sabri that Iraq "can't dictate the conditions
-- don't you realize that?"


2. (S) According to Muasher, Sabri also expressed concern
over former Jordanian Crown Prince Hassan's appearance at a
July conference of Iraqi oppositionists in London. The King
reportedly told Sabri that he had not approved Hassan's
appearance and, in fact, had known nothing about it
beforehand.

--------------
...AND THE TURK AS WELL
--------------


3. (S) Turkish FonMin Sukru Sina Gurel also visited Amman
August 6 and met with King Abdullah, PM Abul Ragheb and
FonMin Muasher, as well as Iraqi FonMin Sabri. Muasher told
the Ambassador that Gurel had wanted to discuss Jordan's
position on Iraq, but had provided little insight into
Turkish thinking. However, Muasher commented, Gurel left the
impression -- but did not state explicitly -- that, in the
end, Turkey will "provide support" to possible U.S. military
action against Iraq.


4. (C) Turkish Charge Sadi Altinok (protect) claimed to the
DCM August 7 that FM Gurel was unaware that Iraqi FM Sabri
was in Amman until FM Muasher mentioned it in passing during
his meeting. After the meeting with Muasher, Gurel decided
on his own to ask Sabri to meet. According to the Turkish
charge, Gurel urged Iraq to comply with UNSCRs, and Sabri
restated the Iraqi position.


5. (C) According to Altinok, PM Abul Ragheb and Gurel in
their meeting had discussed scenarios for the "day after" a
possible military action against Iraq. Both agreed the Iraqi
regime is bad for everybody, but worried that Iraq would
break apart in the wake of a war. Abul Ragheb told Gurel
that removing the Ba'ath party would leave Iraq without any
political glue, perhaps leading to disintegration of
authority and civil war.

--------------
KING ABDULLAH SHIES AWAY FROM TURKISH PRESS
--------------


6. (C) In an interesting side note, Altinok said that King
Abdullah had turned down a request to appear on Turkish state
television. The palace said the King had been on TV quite a
lot lately and was cutting back on his exposure.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (S) Sabri seems to have come to Amman both to check on
what King Abdullah did in Washington and to remind the
Jordanians that Iraq is watching Jordanian actions. As
usual, the Jordanian-Iraqi exchange seems to have produced
little movement in any direction.

Gnehm