Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02AMMAN4379
2002-08-06 15:17:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

USINT BAGHDAD CHIEF BERNACKI GETS OUT OF TOWN,

Tags:  PREL IZ JO 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004379 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2012
TAGS: PREL IZ JO
SUBJECT: USINT BAGHDAD CHIEF BERNACKI GETS OUT OF TOWN,
FINALLY

REF: WARSAW 2654

Classified By: Ambassador Edward Gnehm. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 004379

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/07/2012
TAGS: PREL IZ JO
SUBJECT: USINT BAGHDAD CHIEF BERNACKI GETS OUT OF TOWN,
FINALLY

REF: WARSAW 2654

Classified By: Ambassador Edward Gnehm. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).


1. (C) PolCouns and Poloff met August 6 with Krzysztof
Bernacki, Chief of USINT Baghdad, as he transited Amman for
home leave in Poland. Bernacki, who had not been able to
depart Baghdad for four months, was visibly relieved to be
out of Iraq. He departed the Iraqi capital August 4, one day
after the arrival of a USINT consular officer who will be the
sole staff of the interest section for the remainder of
August (other USINT personnel -- including Bernacki -- will
return to Baghdad at the beginning of September).

-------------- --------------
The Mood on the Street; Speculation Among Diplomats
-------------- --------------


2. (C) Bernacki reported the mood in Baghdad as increasingly
tense, with an expectation that "something is going to
happen." The exchange rate for Iraqi dinars against the
dollar (a bellwether of tension) has steadily eroded in
recent weeks and is now back to levels of early May, before a
20 percent jump. Bernacki noted that while "no one knows"
how large the opposition is within the country, the consensus
among Baghdad-based diplomats is that most Iraqis would
support a U.S.-led invasion, the regular army would not
resist, and fighting would be centered solely on the
Republican Guard and other units fiercely loyal to Saddam.
However, "no one except diplomats is asking 'what comes
next'," he stated. The sense he perceives is that "Iraqis
are tired and are waiting for change."

-------------- --------------
Full RJ Flights Out Of Baghdad, But Not So Regular As Before
-------------- --------------


3. (C) Bernacki said that Royal Jordanian (RJ) Airlines'
flights out of Baghdad continue to be full, including the
flight he put his family on in early July. That said, the
airline has taken some steps to dampen the view that it is
providing a regularly scheduled, commercial service. The
number of flights per week has decreased, RJ will not confirm
a flight until the day before or the day of departure, and
significant delays have become routine in recent weeks.

-------------- --------------
GRL List Notwithstanding, Pentium 4's Available Everywhere
-------------- --------------


4. (C) Bernacki also passed on that even with the

implementation of the GRL, holes in the net are clearly
visible. As an example, he noted that Pentium 4 computers --
prohibited under the GRL -- are readily available from
numerous computer stores in Baghdad, and at prices that are
much more competitive than in Amman.

--------------
They Will Only Act If Faced With An Ultimatum
--------------


5. (C) Turning to the international community's overall
policy toward Iraq, Bernacki offered that the recent drama
involving his own inability to depart Iraq by land is
instructive in understanding the broader Iraqi way of viewing
the world. The GOI was completely intransigent and
unresponsive regarding Bernacki's travel by land for weeks on
end. The situation only resolved itself after the U.S.
presented an ultimatum to the GOI -- threatening to close
USINT and, correspondingly, the Iraqi Mission in Washington
on a certain day if Iraq's land travel ban was not rescinded.
The clarity of this imminent action, he emphasized, was the
only thing that forced the GOI's hand.

--------------
But Even Then, Yes Does Not Always Mean Yes
--------------


6. (C) Bernacki cautioned, however, that even if you think
you have agreement from the Iraqis, you often do not. The
international community should keep this in mind and remain
very wary of "Iraqi games" regarding the return of weapons
inspectors. "Test them and judge them by the results," he
said, "they will never deliver on their promises." Recent
GOI promises to allow him to travel up to 40 km from the
center of Baghdad proved to be empty (ref). When he sought to
test this Iraqi offer last week (and had conveyed to the
Iraqi authorities the full information on his prospective
journey -- including time, road to be used, license plate and
car make),he was turned back at a checkpoint 24 km from the
city -- the same place he has been barred from crossing
before. Using this specific instance to again more generally
depict official Iraqi behavior, Bernacki noted "you have to
understand, in Iraq yes does not always mean yes."

-------------- --------------
Concern For His Family's Safety and That He Not Be Forgotten
-------------- --------------


7. (C) As the meeting drew to a close, Bernacki expressed
concern -- given public speculation of impending U.S.
military action -- that perhaps his family should not return
to Baghdad with him in September. He also made clear that he
would like more regular communication from Washington and
from Embassy Amman, both to check on his situation, and to
task him with projects that could be of assistance to the
U.S. We promised to pass on his concerns to the Department
and would seek to keep in more regular contact with him in
the months ahead.
Gnehm