QUIET IN JORDAN'S PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CAMPS:

C O N F I D E N T I A L AMMAN 003727

SIPDIS

DEPT FOR NEA AND PRM

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/08/2012
TAGS: PREL PREF KPAL KWBG JO
SUBJECT: QUIET IN JORDAN'S PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CAMPS:
DISGUST WITH ARAFAT FOR "SELLING OUT"

Classified By: DCM Greg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) In a July 3 meeting with refcoord, GOJ Department of
Palestinian Affairs Director-General Abdulkarim Abulhaija
shed some light on the calm that currently prevails in
Jordan's refugee camps, in spite of continued tensions in the
West Bank and Gaza. Abulhaija attributed the calm to three
factors. First, demonstration fatigue. Abulhaija said there
is a sense in the camps that life simply must go on, no
matter what happens in the Palestinian Territories. Second,
a combination of fear and political expediency. Abulhaija
said the GOJ had made it very clear in April that the
security services would react -- "cruelly if necessary" -- to
maintain stability in Jordan. With parliamentary elections
coming, he said, none of Jordan's recognized political
players are willing to earn disfavor by pushing for
unauthorized demonstrations. As evidence, Abulhaija noted
the ease with which trade unions recently cancelled plans for
a U.S. boycott event after the GOJ made clear that the event
would not be approved.


2. (C) Finally, Abulhaija attributed the current calm to
great popular disgust with Arafat among many residents of
Jordan's refugee camps, who believe Arafat has sold out his
people. According to Abulhaija, most Palestinians in Jordan
view Arafat's mild reaction to President Bush's June 24
Middle East policy speech as blatant self-preservation at the
expense of the Palestinian people. They therefore are
unwilling to take to the streets in support of Arafat.
Abulhaija added that even the Fatah factions in Jordan, with
whom he had just met the same morning, "want to see Arafat
go." Abulhaija cautioned, however, that popular disgust with
Arafat does not mean that Palestinians in Jordan would
embrace a new leader "imposed" by the U.S. or Israel. He
predicted that any such leader would ultimately be
assassinated, plunging the region into long-term instability.
Abulhaija concluded by rhetorically asking what the U.S.
hoped to achieve by new Palestinian elections. Arafat is
still popular in the Territories, Abulhaija said, and likely
would win a presidential election. Where would that leave
U.S. policy?


3. (C) Comment: Abulhaija's comments on the reasons behind
the current quiet in the camps and rising popular disdain for
Arafat ring true to us and echo opinions we have heard from
across the political spectrum in Jordan. End comment.
Gnehm