AND THE SURVEY SAYS . . . GOJ POPULAR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003726

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/03/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL KPAL SOCI IS JO
SUBJECT: AND THE SURVEY SAYS . . . GOJ POPULAR


Classified By: AMBASSADOR EDWARD GNEHM FOR REASONS 1.5(B) AND (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (C) On June 23, 2002, the Center for Strategic Studies
(CSS) at the University of Jordan released the most recent
iteration of its opinion poll assessing government
popularity. The poll indicates that a large segment of the
Jordanian public continues to support Prime Minister Ali Abul
Ragheb and his two-year-old government, both on issues
related to the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and more
generally. Some assert that the poll is flawed, though a
contact at CSS naturally denies this. End summary.

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CSS POLL RESULTS
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2. (C) CSS has been tracking government popularity since

1993. Its most recent poll contains seventeen questions,
fourteen of which assess public attitudes towards the GOJ's
stand on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict and popular support
for the Abul Ragheb government. The poll samples two groups,
a large demographically diverse "national" sample of 1470
adults and a smaller sample of 700 opinion leaders --
businesspeople, professionals, union leaders, politicians,
and academics.


3. (U) The CSS poll indicates that most Jordanians support
the GOJ's strongly pro-Palestinian stand vis-a-vis the
Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Nearly two-thirds of
Jordanians in both polling samples say GOJ policies reflect
public opinion to a medium or large degree. In what may be
the most revealing item in the survey, many respondents (38%
in the national sample and 58% in the opinion-leader sample)
believe the GOJ can do nothing to alleviate problems on the
West Bank. But even among those who believe the GOJ should
do more, only a minority (24% in the national sample and 22%
in the opinion-leader sample) favor severing or threatening
to sever ties with Israel. The balances in both groups favor
moderate measures like sending aid to Palestinians and
supporting international political initiatives. Opinions
within Jordan's Palestinian refugee camps mirror responses
from the rest of the country.


4. (U) The CSS poll also indicates a fairly high level of
general support for the Abul Ragheb government. Around
two-thirds of Jordanians in both polling groups rate the
current government's "capabilities" as satisfactory or
better. This figure is similar to the figures reported in
the five previous CSS polls assessing support for Abul
Ragheb's government. On the other hand, respondents list
unemployment and poverty as two important areas where the
government should concentrate more effort.

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REACTION TO THE POLL
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5. (C) Reaction to the CSS poll is mixed. A Jordan Times
editorial praises Jordanian "sagacity" revealed in
"reasonable, moderate, realistic and mature" responses to
polling questions. On the other hand, one long-time human
rights contact believes the poll was crafted to "direct"
results favorable to the government. The CSS poll results,
he also says, are worthless because the selection of "opinion
leaders" is unscientific and susceptible to bias. One former
parliamentarian even more cynically opines that the CSS poll
results are simply "untrue." "How can we say that the people
are happy with the government," he asks, "when the government
has failed to ease the economic pressure they suffer from."


6. (C) A contact at CSS, Dr. Hassan Barari, defends the poll
as being carefully designed and professionally administered.
He denies that polling questions are "leading," or that poll
results are subject to any outside interference. As evidence
of the poll's integrity, Barari notes that the GOJ has
previously adopted the unvarnished results of CSS polls even
when they were not favorable to it. In addition, Barari
says, a reputable and experienced pollster (Tony Sabah)
oversees CSS polling and CSS's credibility is such that it
now teaches polling techniques to the Government of Yemen.

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COMMENT
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7. (C) Though CSS is the most respected polling organization
in Jordan, it remains difficult to reconcile the published
results of the CSS poll with ground-level sentiment in
Jordan. CSS polling questions are not obviously leading or
misleading, but some questions are so complex that they may
have generated poorly-considered responses. (For example,
one question assessing government popularity asks, in rough
translation, "To what degree do you believe the government of
Engineer Ali Abul Ragheb has been capable of shouldering the
responsibilities of this era, from the time the government
was formed until now?"). Also, some respondents may have
feared that their replies would not remain confidential.
Still, while it may be difficult to say -- based on this poll
-- whether popular support for the current government is
strong, the poll does seem to suggest that support for the
government has remained much the same in recent months,
despite the turmoil in the region. End comment.
Gnehm