Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02AMMAN3242
2002-06-17 13:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

JORDANIANS AWAIT PRESIDENT'S MIDDLE EAST

Tags:  PREL PGOV KPAL ASEC IS JO 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003242 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL ASEC IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS AWAIT PRESIDENT'S MIDDLE EAST
STATEMENT, HOPE FOR U.S. PLAN, BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH


Classified By: Amb. Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D)

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SUMMARY
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 003242

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/16/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV KPAL ASEC IS JO
SUBJECT: JORDANIANS AWAIT PRESIDENT'S MIDDLE EAST
STATEMENT, HOPE FOR U.S. PLAN, BUT DON'T EXPECT MUCH


Classified By: Amb. Edward W. Gnehm for reasons 1.5 (B) and (D)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) Jordanians, confused about the direction of U.S.
Middle East policy, are nervously awaiting President Bush's
Middle East policy statement, hoping (but doubting) that it
will bring clarity and the prospect of genuine progress for
the Palestinians. Most Jordanians see U.S. engagement in the
MEPP as the only way to break the current spiral of violence,
although most are also highly suspicious of U.S. motives and
doubt U.S. commitment to take hard decisions regarding
Israel. In the end, it is the concrete results of any new
U.S. proposal -- not the words of the President's remarks --
to which Jordanians will look to measure American resolve to
reach peace. END SUMMARY.

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WAITING TO EXHALE
--------------


2. (C) The withdrawal of Israeli forces from most of the
West Bank in May, and the consequent reduction of daily
Palestinian casualty and arrest figures, has reduced the
level of tension in Jordan: the loudest wedding season for
the past two years has begun, and students are sitting for
the annual end of secondary school "tawjihi" exams. Even
regular Israeli raids in the West Bank and Gaza have not
entirely soured the sense that something is happening on the
Middle East peace front. Jordanians have been mildly
encouraged as a procession of Middle Eastern leaders -- PM
Sharon, King Abdullah, President Mubarak, PM Sharon again,
and Saudi Prince Saud -- have visited the White House and
given the President their views on where they think the
Middle East should go next. Statements by the President, the
Secretary, and other senior U.S. officials that the President

SIPDIS
is weighing his options on next steps have heightened the
sense that a new U.S. initiative is just around the corner.

--------------
U.S. POLICY CONFUSING... AND CONFUSED
--------------


3. (C) While our contacts are generally skeptical that the
speech will provide new U.S. support for the Palestinians,

there is no agreement on what it will mean for the region.
In fact, there is a clear sense here -- heightened by local
and Western press commentary -- that the U.S. has not yet
settled on the next steps of its policy. "The (U.S.)
President says he supports a Palestinian state," one NGO
leader told us recently, "but what kind of State? Real?
Provisional? What are its borders? What is its capital?"


4. (C) Pointing to differing statements from various
officials, many see a distinct split within the U.S.
administration. "When," a senior MFA official asked us late
last week, "is the U.S. going to decide what its policy is."
The lack of clarity in U.S. policy, according to one
academic, has "left us (in the Middle East) without
direction."

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WHAT WILL BUSH SAY? WILL HE BACK IT UP?
--------------


5. (C) Consequently, a wide variety of Embassy contacts and
local editorial writers have focused their attention on what
President Bush will (or should) say about the future of U.S.
policy in the region. "Most," said a senior Jordanian
banker, "assume that U.S. policy will be biased toward
Israel," especially following President Bush's recent
statements that Sharon is a "man of peace," that the
President is not prepared to offer a timetable for creation
of a Palestinian state, and the President's persistent focus
on Arafat's responsibility to act against Palestinian
terrorists.


6. (C) However, statements by the Secretary at the G-8
meeting in Canada about the possibility of creating a
"provisional" Palestinian state, and Western and Israeli
press speculation that the U.S. will call for an end to
Israeli settlement activity have raised hopes among some in
the educated elite that the U.S. will set out a political
plan that leads to a Palestinian state and asks Israel to
take concrete actions.


7. (C) The many nay sayers, however, doubt U.S. commitment
to peace in the Middle East, and dismiss out of hand
suggestions that the U.S. will try to force Israel to accept
even minimal Palestinian political demands. One Jordan
University professor declared that, public statements aside,
"no U.S. President has ever supported (creation of) a
Palestinian state." An always-cranky former Parliamentarian
opined last week that any new U.S. proposal would be merely
"a tool to keep Arab regimes in the War against Terrorism."
In any case, he concluded, "the Zionist lobby and the
Christian right" will prevent "any plan that Israel does not
like" from being implemented.

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COMMENT
--------------


8. (C) The bad news is that most Jordanians remain very
skeptical about U.S. motives and U.S. commitment to use its
position to deliver concrete Israeli concessions. Those who
doubt U.S. motives will see even a positive speech as a way
to create motion in the peace process without real progress.
A presidential statement that offers no concrete political
gains for Palestinians and focuses on Palestinian
responsibilities (to reform, fight terrorism, or choose a new
leader) to the exclusion of needed Israeli actions could lead
to another round of demonstrations and other expressions of
public anger.


9. (C) The good news is that most Jordanians -- even many
of the nay sayers -- continue to see U.S. engagement as the
only way to solve the Middle East crisis. Consequently,
there is intense attention focused on the President's
statement, and more than a little heightening of expectations
among those who hope for a U.S. role that offers more hope to
the Palestinians. For Jordanians, however, the test of the
President's speech will not be the specific words he utters
or the plan he presents, but whether the U.S. takes concrete
actions to move forward on Palestinian political goals in
parallel with moves to ensure Israel's security.

Gnehm