Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02AMMAN2423
2002-05-16 06:00:00
SECRET
Embassy Amman
Cable title:  

SADDAM'S REGIME PROSPERING AND CONFIDENT ACCORDING

Tags:  PREL PGOV ECON ETRD IZ 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002423 

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2007
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ETRD IZ
SUBJECT: SADDAM'S REGIME PROSPERING AND CONFIDENT ACCORDING
TO LONGTIME JOURNALIST

Classified By: Ambassador Edward Gnehm. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

-------
Summary
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S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002423

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/15/2007
TAGS: PREL PGOV ECON ETRD IZ
SUBJECT: SADDAM'S REGIME PROSPERING AND CONFIDENT ACCORDING
TO LONGTIME JOURNALIST

Classified By: Ambassador Edward Gnehm. Reasons 1.5 (b,d).

--------------
Summary
--------------


1. (S) Journalist Peter Arnett (please protect throughout)
shared with the Ambassador May 13 impressions from a
just-completed three-week tour of Iraq. The images he
conveyed -- full flights into and out of Baghdad, markets
better stocked with products than before, huge,
recently-completed ornate Mosques, and the self-assured words
of Tariq Aziz and other GOI officials -- are of a
self-confident regime that believes it can withstand any
potential U.S. attack short of a full-scale ground invasion.
Baghdad, he noted, was full of European and other
international "solidarity activists" who had come to Iraq to
take part in Saddam's 65th Birthday celebrations. He
observed that the GOI no longer looks to the international
media to generate public pressure to stop any U.S. action.
Instead, its active -- and in its own view successful --
courting of its Arab neighbors and European NGOs is building
opposition to any U.S. action. He also noted that Uday
apparently has recently become a Shi'a, and has taken to
writing long tracts in his newspaper Babel on the virtues of
the Shi'a sect. Whether this indicates a change in his
notoriously libertine lifestyle remains to be seen. End
Summary.

-------------- --------------
Full Planes, Busy Markets, New Mosques, and Plenty
of Interested International Businesspeople
-------------- --------------


2. (S) Arnett observed that throughout his trip, it was clear
that Iraq is much more prosperous now than it has been at any
time since Desert Storm. He flew into and out of Baghdad
from Amman, and also flew internally from Baghdad to Mosul in
the north and to Basra in the south. All the flights, he
noted, were filled with businesspeople, Iraqi families, and
large numbers of Shi'a pilgrims from other countries. The
Iraqi planes on the internal flights were all in good repair,
and Saddam International Airport was "spic and span,
well-maintained, and bustling with flights to and from
everywhere." He said he saw similar levels of activity at

Baghdad's bus terminals, with new buses departing regularly
for destinations all over the country.


3. (S) A visit to Saddam City in Baghdad (which Arnett views
as a bellwether neighborhood) revealed that the quantity and
variety of goods found in working class markets have greatly
improved. The expanded availability of goods is not limited
to upper class neighborhoods like Mansour, he said, but
clearly extends to other levels of society as well. (Note:
UN officials he met said that supplies of medicines obtained
under O-F-F are, for the most part, meeting overall needs.
That said, the officials noted that there have been problems
importing some specialized medicines due to sanctions
restrictions on potential dual-use items.) He also recounted
visiting an Iraqi family he has known for more than 10 years,
noting how their economic situation had improved
significantly. The father is now making relatively good
money as a driver on the trade routes back and forth to
Syria. Quite striking, as well, were the huge and ornate new
mosques that had been completed or are still under
construction in various parts of Baghdad. Many Iraqis appear
to approve of and appreciate the new mosques, he said: "it
gives them a place to go."


4. (S) Just as striking, in his view, has been the
proliferation of international business people in Baghdad
compared to the numbers he had seen on previous visits. As
an example, he noted that delegations from both Indonesia and
Malaysia were negotiating with the Iraqis over oil
development projects in the Western Desert. A senior Iraqi
official boasted to him that Iraq would soon be shown to have
the world's largest oil reserves. This is, and would
continue to be, an irresistable lure to international
business. Trade Minister Mohammed Salih, he noted, "made a
big issue of saying that Iraq very much wanted to rebuild its
trade relationship with the U.S. under the 1988 trade
agreement" and said he regretted that politics had thus far
prevented that from happening.

-------------- --------------
Saddam's Birthday Bash: Organized But Genuine Enthusiasm
-------------- --------------


5. (S) Arnett's three-week visit coincided with Iraq's
commemoration of Saddam's 65th Birthday. In total he
"endured" 22 hours of celebratory parades in Baghdad, Tikrit
and Mosul in honor of this occasion. While the government
obviously instructed and organized the populace to
participate (bussing people in, for example, and sending
notices instructing people which event to attend),many
Iraqis took part of their own volition. Much of this stems
from Saddam's emotional appeal as an Arab hero who fearlessly
stands up to America. Part of it is a result of the largesse
Saddam bestows on those who are loyal. In either case, the
journalist noted, the enthusiasm of many Iraqis came off to
him as genuine.


6. (S) Arnett also passed on comments from Tariq Aziz that
reflected the regime's judgement that the people's support
is, in fact, real. Aziz told him that the Government had
distributed "hundreds of thousands of weapons" into the hands
of the people. If they were truly concerned about the
loyalty of average Iraqis, they would never have done this.
Americans and others "who may believe that the Iraqi
population is seething with rage against the regime are
sorely mistaken," Aziz said. Aziz added: "The U.S. is
wasting its time and money with these so-called opposition
groups. The relationship between the Government and the
people is a healthy one. We are not afraid. We are sure of
their patriotism." Fondly recalling evenings spent in packed
cafes along the waterways and marveling over the many
positive changes in Iraq since his last visit several years
ago, Arnett opined that as time goes by regime change will be
more difficult, saying "each month (sees) more trade, more
prosperity, and more solidarity."


--------------
No Relationship With UBL
--------------


7. (S) In the same interview, Tariq Aziz emphatically denied
any cooperation between Iraq and "terrorists," noting that
Palestinian "freedom fighters" fall into a different
category. He told Arnett that "we don't work with
terrorists. We don't need them. We never recognized the
Taliban. The attack on the WTC was the act of a desperate
individual. Governments don't do things like that. We are a
revolutionary government power and we would have been subject
to nuclear attack if we did such a thing."

--------------
"International Solidarity" Activists
More Effective Advocates than the Media
--------------


8. (S) Saddam's birthday and the 34-nation "Baghdad
Conference" that had also taken place drew large numbers of
"international solidarity activists" from around the world.
The Iraqis, Arnett noted, appear to have settled on a
strategy of building grassroots support for Iraq in Europe
and elsewhere by courting and (in all likelihood, he noted)
financing these groups. They see these organizations as
effective pressure centers that, over time, will be able to
affect their own governments' policies toward Iraq and erode
support for, and participation in, any U.S.-led action. This
has been especially true of its efforts in Arab countries.
He contrasted the energy and resources the GOI is devoting to
these groups to the diminished role the Iraqis have assigned
to the international media. He noted, "their experience in
1991 showed that our reporting did nothing to stop the U.S.'s
decision to launch Desert Storm."

--------------
A New, More Pious and Shi'a Uday?
--------------


9. (S) One curiosity Arnett remarked on was Uday's recent
public conversion to Shi'a Islam. Uday has been utilizing
his newspaper "Babel" to pontificate on the virtues of Shi'a
Islam. This development has not gone unnoticed among Iraqi
Shi'a. What it ultimately portends, how most Iraqis view it,
and whether Uday has permanently forsaken his previously
notorious libertine lifestyle, Arnett jokingly remarked,
remain to be seen.
Gnehm