MODERATES IN PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CAMP UNEASY ABOUT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 AMMAN 002243

SIPDIS

E.O. 12958: DECL: 05/06/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV PREF KPAL KWBG IS JO
SUBJECT: MODERATES IN PALESTINIAN REFUGEE CAMP UNEASY ABOUT
U.S. INTENTIONS IN AFTERMATH OF ISRAELI OFFENSIVE


Classified By: CDA Gerg Berry, per 1.5 (b) and (d).


1. (C) Summary and Comment: In the aftermath of Israel's
Operation Defensive Shield, the mood among even moderate
factions in Amman's Wihdat refugee camp is suspicious and
uneasy about Israeli and U.S. intentions. In a May 1
meeting with emboffs, Palestinian notables from Wihdat
questioned U.S. "protection" of Israel as evidenced by
cancellation of the UN's Jenin fact-finding mission;
questioned stated U.S. support for the creation of a
Palestinian state; and warned that the recent Israeli
offensive would lead to greater political extremism within
the West Bank and Jordan. The notables believe the only
way to repair the damage of the last few months is to make
dramatic progress toward the creation of a Palestinian
state. End summary and comment.


2. (C) Refcoord and poloff met on May 1 with former member
of Parliament Mohamed al-Kuz and Palestinian notables from
Wihdat refugee camp. Wihdat, located within and
indistinguishable from Amman's poorer eastern
neighborhoods, is one of Jordan's largest and most
politically active Palestinian refugee camps. It also has
been the scene of some of the more violent demonstrations
in recent weeks. Al-Kuz and the notables who accompanied
him represent the most moderate faction among Jordan's
Palestinian refugee camps: those who embrace a two-state
solution and fully support the Jordanian regime and its
pro-U.S. policies.

DISAPPOINTMENT IN U.S. "PROTECTION" OF ISRAEL FOLLOWING
JENIN "CRIMES"


3. (C) As soon as the pleasantries were out of the way, a
clearly distressed notable began questioning emboffs about
the UN's decision to cancel the fact-finding mission to
Jenin refugee camp. Somberly telling emboffs that his own
relative had personally witnessed the IDF loading
Palestinian corpses into trucks and "taking them to an
Israeli crocodile farm within the West Bank," the notable
wanted to know why the U.S. was "protecting" Israel. No
other army in the world, he told emboffs, would be allowed
to get away with the "crimes" committed in Jenin refugee
camp. (Note: ConGen Jerusalem confirms that there is, in
fact, a crocodile farm in the West Bank. The notable's
story might not seem outlandish to a Palestinian familiar
with the West Bank.)

QUESTIONING THE DETAILS OF U.S. VISION


4. (C) The notables questioned emboffs extensively about
the U.S. vision of two states -- Israel and Palestine --
living side-by-side in peace and security. Explaining that
they believed the U.S. had given an implicit "green light"
for Israeli destruction of PA facilities in the West Bank,
the notables wondered whether U.S. support for a
Palestinian state extended only to Gaza. And if a
Palestinian state were limited to Gaza, they asked, did the
U.S. support a federation of the West Bank with Jordan?
The notables were also concerned about the purpose of a new
international peace conference. Hadn't the Madrid
conference created an appropriate framework? And if a new
conference were convened, the notables asked, would the
international community absolve Israel of its
responsibilities under the Oslo process? The notables
asked emboffs how Palestinians could ever believe Israel
would be held accountable to its agreements, if the
international community "gave up" on Oslo.


5. (C) Given the widespread damage inflicted by the IDF in
the West Bank, the notables also wondered how anyone could
realistically expect peace in the immediate aftermath of
Operation Defensive Shield. Stressing repeatedly that they
themselves did not condone violence, the notables warned
that Palestinian humiliation and suffering of the last
month will result in "thousands" more suicide bombers.
Only the creation of a Palestinian state will alleviate
tensions.

NEGATIVE REPERCUSSIONS FOR JORDANIAN DOMESTIC POLITICS


6. (C) The Wihdat camp leadership fears that the Israeli
offensive will lead to greater popular support for
political extremism within Jordan. Pointing to the Muslim
Brotherhood's "sweeping" victory in late April's
Engineering Association elections, Al-Kuz told emboffs that
many people now believe the MB was right to reject the Oslo
process. After watching weeks of destruction in the West
Bank, Jordanians could only believe that engagement with
Israel would bring "ruin" to the Palestinians. The only
possible solution to turn Jordanians away from extremism
would be the immediate creation of the state of Palestine.
Absent such a move, Al-Kuz believes King Abdullah will have
no choice but to postpone Jordan's upcoming but still
unscheduled parliamentary elections in order to prevent an
MB victory. Al-Kuz noted that such a decision would be in
full accord with Jordan's constitution and likely greeted
with relief by political moderates like himself. He
predicted that the King would call the former Parliament
back into session.

SUPPORT FOR MAINTAINING TIES WITH ISRAEL


7. (C) Al-Kuz and the notables expressed strong support
for the GOJ's decision to maintain ties with Israel.
Although they acknowledged that there is great popular
demand for a complete break in relations, the notables said
relations with Israel are necessary to provide a "lifeline"
to the Palestinian people. Through its relations with
Israel and subsequent ability to funnel Arab aid to the
West Bank, Jordan is the "savior" of the Palestinian
people.

WIHDAT SADDENED; CALM FOR NOW


8. (C) Echoing comments made by sources from other camps,
the notables described the mood in Wihdat as very sad.
They said "everyone" has had a relative killed, arrested,
or left homeless during the recent incursions. Although
Wihdat had been the scene of some of the most violent
confrontations between demonstrators and police, the
notables believe only an extreme Israeli action, such as an
invasion of Gaza, would trigger renewed violence within the
camp.

COMMENT


9. (C) Al-Kuz and the notables from Wihdat represent the
most moderate thinking among Jordan's Palestinian refugee
camps. Although they still strongly support a two-state
solution, their skepticism over the details and U.S.
willingness to pressure Israel to meet its obligations,
reveals an important change in the mood of moderates
following
Israeli incursions into the West Bank. Absent dramatic
progress toward the creation of a Palestinian state -- a
Palestinian state politically acceptable to Palestinians --
their pro-regime and pro-U.S. stance may be hard to maintain.

BERRY