Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ABUJA979
2002-03-27 11:41:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: ABUJA WEEKLY REVIEW: MARCH 18-22

Tags:  PGOV EFIN ECON PHUM NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000979 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2007
TAGS: PGOV EFIN ECON PHUM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ABUJA WEEKLY REVIEW: MARCH 18-22


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (b)
and (d).


-------------------------------
MONEY CRUNCH AT THE STATE LEVEL
-------------------------------


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000979

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/25/2007
TAGS: PGOV EFIN ECON PHUM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ABUJA WEEKLY REVIEW: MARCH 18-22


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (b)
and (d).


--------------
MONEY CRUNCH AT THE STATE LEVEL
--------------



1. (SBU) Because of shrunken government revenues due to lower
world oil prices, most State governments have become cash
strapped. Some have not paid civil servants since January.
Wage costs grew exponentially in May 2000 when the minimum
civil servant wage was increased from N3,500 to N7,500/month
(USD 64). High oil prices in 2000-2001 brought in sufficient
money to satisfy the higher wage bill. However, today's
lower oil prices and OPEC quota cuts have reduced federal
allocations to the States, leaving many States unable to meet
their obligations including paying both State employees and
pensioners. Civil servants around the country are grumbling
and there has been talk of a strike if the problem is not
resolved soon. In addition, many State governments have
frozen new recruiting, leaving more job-seekers unemployed
and on the streets.



2. (C) Comment: A strike by civil servants could be severely
damaging both politically and economically. Unfortunately,
resolution will not be very easy. Given government spending
priorities as they now stand (which includes the siphoning of
funds for personal or political uses in some States),there
simply is not enough money to pay everyone's salaries. This
insufficiency will be exacerbated by electoral pressure to
spend money in other areas. However, astute State governors
will make salary payments a top priority for the simple
reason that people, not money-guzzling projects, vote. Civil
servants and their families tend to be more favorably
disposed toward the incumbent who pays than the one who does
not.


-------------- --------------
Justice Minister Agabi's Controversial Sharia Letter
-------------- --------------





3. (C) In a much-publicized March 18 letter, recently
appointed Justice Minister Kanu Agabi intensified the debate
over Sharia. In his letter, the Justice Minister requested
the twelve governors in the States that have enacted criminal

Sharia not to impose penalties against Moslems that could not
be imposed against non-Moslems under the secular criminal
code. Clearly, the letter was written with Safiya Husseini's
case in mind as the appellate decision reversing her
conviction was still a week away when Agabi penned the
letter. Agabi probably believes his letter nudged the Sokoto
court to reverse the stoning verdict. Others probably think
the reversal came notwithstanding the letter, which they
considered incendiary and counter-productive.



4. (C) Hauwa Ibrahim, an attorney for Safiya, told Emboff
that the Agabi letter was bad lawyering, and even worse
politics. She characterized the letter as unnecessary legal
posturing that did not carry any force of law despite its
portentousness. The Justice Minister could have sued for a
declaratory judgment if he really wanted to cure the
disparity between the punishments proscribed by the two
bodies of criminal law. For a non-Muslim to write such a
letter "in order to protect Muslims," as Agabi claimed, was
condescending; it meant that Muslims had to be protected
against themselves. Ibrahim's predictions that criticism
would follow the letter proved right. Predictably,
temperamental Zamfara State Governor Sani upbraided Agabi and
vowed that he would not change his State's Sharia
legislation. Even moderate Kaduna State Governor felt
compelled to criticize the Justice Minister for encroaching
into the ambit of the States. Niger State Governor Kure
challenged Agabi to forego letter writing and contest the
constitutionality of Sharia in court.



5. (C) Comment: In addition to the letter, Information
Minister Jerry Gana told the press that the GON was forced to
take a more proactive stance against Sharia to prevent
Nigeria from becoming a human rights pariah. Some in the GON
may think that Agabi's and Gana's interventions helped tip
the balance in the Husseini case. However, these statements
probably had little effect on the Husseini court. By
connoting that the North's brand of Sharia is atavistic, and
even brutal, the GON statements will make concession by the
Northern states on this issue more difficult. Harsh
statements from the Federal Government will only antagonize
Northern politicians and diminish the political space in
which Northern moderates can maneuver to amend criminal
Sharia as currently implemented to comport more closely with
universally accepted human rights tenets.



6. (C) Additionally, the Federal Government probably is
underestimating the popularity of Sharia with the Northern
electorate. Every dig at Sharia from the Executive Branch
further estranges the Obasanjo Administration from a large
segment of the Northern Muslim population.


--------------
ELECTORAL LAW TO GO TO THE PRESIDENT AGAIN
--------------





7. (SBU) The joint Senate/House harmonization committee
passed the recycled Electoral Act; the bill is now on its way
to the President to sign into the law. The new measure
expunges the controversial prohibition against new parties
contesting the national and state elections in 2003. It also
keeps the three-stage sequencing of elections: presidential,
state then local. However, that sequence may change as the
Governors' suit contesting the constitutionality of the
Electoral Law passed last December. The State Executives are
challenging the National Assembly's right to change the date
of local government elections from April 2002 to 2003, thus
extending the local government officials' tenures in office
by a year, will be decided by the Supreme Court on March 28.



8. (U) With April approaching, many elected local government
officials worry that Governors in their states may ignore the
Electoral Law that was passed in December (this version
extended local government tenures to 2003) and remove them
from office because their terms were originally to expire
next month. In an effort to discourage Governors from this
action, the National House of Representatives passed a
resolution that the Governors lacked the constitutional
authority to dissolve the local government councils in April.
Meanwhile, the Association of Local Government of Nigeria
(ALGON) has filed suit against the Governors seeking to
enjoin them from removing local officials. ALGON also has
stated its intention to form a "grassroots" political party
more responsive to the average citizen than the currently
registered political associations.


--------------
ELECTORAL PREPARATIONS -- NIL
--------------





9. (C) Civil servants are not alone in the queue waiting for
payment. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC)
has not received the funds President Obasanjo promised
earlier this year. Without these funds, INEC can neither
prepare for nor conduct voters registration. If the funds
are not soon forthcoming, INEC may not be able to conduct
registration in a timely enough manner to prepare for
elections in early 2003. As things now stand with INEC
preparations and funding, it would be very difficult to
envision the development of a new voters registration list in
time to conduct local government elections in 2002. This
could be a big problem should the Supreme Court endorse the
Governors' contention that the Electoral Act's postponement
of local government elections from 2002 to 2003 is
unconstitutional.





10. (C) Justice Minister Agabi and INEC have announced that
they will be cooperating with security forces to identity
politicians and political groups that sponsor violence.
Guilty individuals and groups will be barred from
participating in the elections. If implemented effectively
and impartially, this injunction could be a healthy tonic.
Agabi cited violent groups like the Bakassi Boys and OPC as
examples. By any objective standard, these groups need to be
contained. However, according to some press reports, Agabi's
statement also mentioned the Arewa Consultative Forum, the
North's leading organization of intellectuals and luminaries,
as a vigilante group that must register with the security
forces or face the ban on electoral activity. While Arewa is
no fan of the Administration, it also is a far cry from the
OPC. In fact, the ACF has been actively mediating the
Tiv-Jukun feud in Benue. Perhaps an argument can be made that
some ACF figures are suspected of encouraging unrest and
discord. However, painting the entire organization with the
same brush as the OPC and others, the Administration falls
liable to being accused of using the anti-violence campaign
as a subterfuge to bridle its most influential Northern
critics. (Comment: With his statement on Sharia and his
reference to the ACF, the new Attorney General certainly has
gotten off on the wrong foot with the North. Less certain is
whether he is playing the role of Obasanjo's foil or is he a
loose cannon. End comment.)
Jeter