NIGERIA: SACKING OF POLICE CHIEF BELIEVED IMMINENT

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 000708

SIPDIS


NOFORN


DEPT FOR AF AND INL
NSC FOR AFRICA DIRECTOR JENDAYI FRAZER


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/05/2012
TAGS: KCRM PGOV PHUM ASEC NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: SACKING OF POLICE CHIEF BELIEVED IMMINENT


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter for reasons 1.5 (b)
and (d).


1.(C/NF) Summary: President Obasanjo may defuse the mounting
tension within the Police Force over salary arrearages and,
in the process be seen as getting a handle on the greater
law-and-order crisis afflicting the country, by sacking the
ineffectual Musiliu Smith, Inspector General of Police.
Smith has been little more than a cipher and his removal
could create room to implement much needed strategic reforms
within the Nigerian Police. End Summary.


2.(C/NF) Musiliu Smith was appointed Inspector General of
Police by President Obasanjo in late 1999. Smith's
appointment is largely seen as political since he "jumped
queue" over two more senior NPF officers to become IGP. By
even the most charitable assessments, Smith's performance has
been unremarkable, though he has been able to avoid any
career-threatening gaffes, until now.


3.(C/NF) In a March 4 meeting with RNLEO, the Chairman of the
new Police Service Commission Chief Simon Okeke disclosed
that President Obasanjo has called a meeting of the National
Police Council at 3:00 p.m. on March 6. The Police Council
was established by the 1999 Constitution, is chaired by the
President and includes: the nation's 36 governors; the Vice
President; the National Security Advisor; the IGP; and the
Police Service Commission Chairman. The last time the NPC
met was late 1999 to appoint Smith as the new IGP. According
to Okeke, the NPC should be convened to address major law and
order crises or to hire/fire the Inspector General of Police;
this time it appears it is being convened for both reasons,
opined the PSC Chairman. Okeke showed RNLEO a copy of the
President's order for the meeting and the meeting's agenda,
which lists one item -- "the Administration of the Nigeria
Police Force."


4.(C/NF) The January Police strike was grounded in
long-standing grievances of enlisted personnel (Constables,
Corporals, Sergeants and Inspectors) about unpaid salaries
and allowances. Senior NPF officers, including the IGP, are
aware of the deteriorating welfare of their subordinates but
have been unresponsive.


5.(C/NF) In mid-January Smith dismissed reports of that
strike without adequately investigating the discontent within
his police ranks. Days before the rumored January 25 strike,
Smith falsely assured the President there would be no strike
(and therefore no need to address the strikers' grievances
immediately). With that, Smith departed for the Hajj in
Mecca. When the strike erupted -- albeit only in some parts
of the country --- the President was caught off-guard.
Obasanjo reportedly ordered Smith back to Nigeria when Smith
did not fly back immediately after receiving news of the
strike's outbreak.


6.(C/NF) Obasanjo felt betrayed by Smith's irresponsible
behavior, according to PSC members and other Post sources.
One PSC member close to Vice President Atiku Abubakar claims
the VP, referring to Smith, recently stated to the PSC
member; "Can you believe it? He lied to us!"


7.(C/NF) Comment: President Obasanjo is under growing
political pressure to address the country's communal
violence/security crisis and reform the reform-resistant
Police. It appears likely the President will dismiss Smith
and appoint a new IGP imminently. The dismissal of Smith
within the next few days would almost certainly lower
tensions within the lower ranks of the Police Force and might
help to forestall the much-bruited but not definite March 11
police strike. Smith has been personally blamed for much of
the NPF's failure to address the serious, long-standing
grievances of enlisted personnel -- a not altogether unfair
assessment though the responsibility is not his alone. But
he clearly has become a liability for Obasanjo and, if our
sources are reliable, has thus offended his only political
patron. His sacking might also help our Police Reform
activities since he is less than enthusiastic about the
fundamental changes necessary for the NPF to become an asset
for democratic rule in Nigeria.


Jeter