Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ABUJA680
2002-03-01 14:46:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: WEEKLY POLITICAL WRAP UP - FEB 25 TO MAR 1

Tags:  PGOV ECON NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000680 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2007
TAGS: PGOV ECON NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: WEEKLY POLITICAL WRAP UP - FEB 25 TO MAR 1

Classified by DCM Andrews for reason 1.5 (d.)


-------------------------------
Cabinet Reshuffle In The Works?
-------------------------------


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 000680

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 02/28/2007
TAGS: PGOV ECON NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: WEEKLY POLITICAL WRAP UP - FEB 25 TO MAR 1

Classified by DCM Andrews for reason 1.5 (d.)


--------------
Cabinet Reshuffle In The Works?
--------------



1. (C) The Senate on February 27 consented to the
President's February 26 nomination of Dr. Olu Agunloye as
Minister without Portfolio. Agunloye, a physicist by
training, was a close friend of slain Attorney General Ige.
Like Ige, Agunloye hails from the Southwest and is a member
of the Yoruba-dominated Alliance of Democracy political
party. Some Senators speculated during his brief appearance
before them that eventually Agunloye will head the Ministry
of Solid Minerals.



2. (C) Obasanjo's critics, particularly those in the North,
will see Agunloye's appointment as added evidence that
Obasanjo has embraced a "Southwest" strategy of solidifying
ties to his Yoruba homeland in the run up to the 2003
election. Many in the North believe that Obasanjo is
pursuing this strategy to the point of ignoring Northern
leaders, and their concerns. If Agunloye is given the solid
minerals brief, these Northerners will see his appointment as
detrimental to their interests. Much of Nigeria's solid
mineral deposits are in the North. Some Northerners will
view Aguunloye as an interloper trying to control the
resources and revenues from resources which they believe more
rightfully should be controlled by one of their own.



3. (C) Agunloye's appointment also has revived speculation
about a major cabinet reshuffling. Obasanjo has to be aware
that his popularity is flagging and that his Administration
needs a tonic. A cabinet reshuffling would give him leave to
jettison some non-performing ministers under the pretext that
he is freeing them from their duties to allow them to pursue
their ambitions for elective office. However, removing
ministers is only half the equation. The other half is their
replacements. The reshuffling will not improve Obasanjo's
political standing unless replacements are a cut above their
predecessors. With only a year left in his term, convincing
honest, highly competent people to take jobs for such a brief
duration will be difficult unless Obasanjo has plans beyond

2003.


--------------
Waiting to Hear From Above

--------------



4. (C) Despite the intensified speculation about a cabinet
reshuffling and a 2003 reelection bid, President Obasanjo
continues to hold those with inquiring minds at bay.
Deflecting an inquiry made by a women's group paying a call
on him, Obasanjo reminded the group that he said he would
take his instruction from God but as of yet had not received
his celestial instructions. However, Obasanjo said he
expected to receive his orders "very soon." (Comment:
Obasanjo is a religious man and appeals to religion are
commonplace in all aspects of Nigerian life, including
politics. While those who like Obasanjo will consider his
statement as a sign of piety, many critics are beyond giving
him the benefit of the doubt, spiritually, politically or
otherwise. Some have openly poked fun at his statements about
divine instruction. They believe that the voice he finally
hears will tell him to run simply because that voice will be
his own. End comment)


--------------
President and House Remain at Loggerheads
--------------



5. (C) The financial disclosure standoff between the
Presidency and House of Assembly entered its second week.
Speaker Na'abba claims the House is almost out of funds for
its operations but that he will not buckle to Obasanjo's
demands to furnish an accounting of members' salaries and
other emoluments. Na'abba's position is that the Revenue
Mobilization and Fiscal Commission, an arm of the executive,
has this information as it is the body that actually
calculates payments to members. Obasanjo had barred the
payment of salaries and other funds to the House until the
Speaker complies with his disclosure requests; however, the
President did agree to partial payment earlier this week
after the intercession of Senate President Anyim and PDP
Chairman Ogbeh.



6. (C) This impasse has affected the 2002 budget process as
the House has delayed consideration of the measure, citing
the lack of money as impairing its ability to function.
Additionally, Na'abba has filed suit seeking an order
compelling Obasanjo to release the funds. (Comment: This is
the latest in a string of rows between Na'abba and Obasanjo.
If one did not know better, it would seem the two were in
different political parties. Since they are not, it appears
that Na'abba is consciously staking out a position as an
independent, if sometimes opposing power node to Obasanjo
within the party itself. While probably excluding himself
from the "Friends of Olusegun" list, this ploy will likely
boost Na'abba's appeal among disenchanted elements in the
party as well as with members of the Northern elite critical
of Obasanjo. End comment.)


--------------
Firings at the Electoral Commission
--------------



7. (C) Out of the blue, President Obasanjo dismissed 34 of
37 Resident Electoral Commissioners (REC). Although having
their offices in the 36 states and the Federal Capital
Territory, RECs belong to the Independent Electoral
Commission hierarchy, not the state electoral apparatus.
While the President's action were undisputedly within his
constitutional prerogative, the action might not go down well
politically. For some, the excuse that the REC's were
dismissed at the behest of the governors of the affected
states due to security reasons or for corruption does not
hold water. There was no inkling that any of them was under
investigation nor has any incriminating evidence been
disclosed. Moreover, the 34 dismissed RECs were appointees of
former Head of State Abubakar while the three who escaped the
axe were recent Obasanjo appointees. This has some observers
suspecting that Obasanjo is trying to stack the electoral
deck with his acolytes. Should he go ahead and appoint known
loyalists to the positions, many people will begin to cry
that an electoral foul has been committed.
Jeter