NIGERIA: PARTIAL UPDATE ON INEC PREPARATIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 003374

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/23/12
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PHUM PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PARTIAL UPDATE ON INEC PREPARATIONS


CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE ANDREWS. REASONS 1.5 (B) and (D).



1. (C) Summary. Under growing scrutiny from domestic
political parties and the international donor community and
sensing that the sand is emptying from the electoral
hourglass, the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) is
attempting to show mastery of its brief. On December 18,
INEC released a skeletal electoral timetable while also
holding several meetings with political parties during the
week of December 16-20. Despite this display of greater
activity, INEC did not win many converts. Most of the new
political parties lambasted the new schedule as
unrealistic. INEC's tardy completion of the voters list and
its announcement of a supplemental registration in January
were derided by several parties; they threatened a lawsuit
seeking a completely new registration based on allegations
of massive fraud. In the meantime, having not yet received
its 27 billion Naira allocation, INEC continued to dawdle
in making the essential logistical preparations for the
elections. End summary.


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VOTERS REGISTRATION
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2. (C) During a December 19 press statement, INEC Spokesman
Okpo S. Okpo announced that 12-15 percent of the voter
registration applications submitted during the September
registration exercise were improper, mostly multiple
applications. Okpo's revelation undermines prior statements
by INEC Chairman Guobadia that the registration was
relatively hitch-free and that all eligible Nigerians were
able to register. Okpo's statement was based on a partial
review of all the applications submitted. If this estimate
holds true for the entire exercise, Okpo's statement is an
implicit admission that as many as 10 million fraudulent
applications might have been submitted. If so, a
significant number of eligible voters could have been
precluded from registering due to lack of registration
forms caused by the high number of fraudulent applications.



3. (C) The newly registered political parties were not
appeased by Okpo's newly found candor. They complained
INEC's "admission" was a clever subterfuge to trick people
into believing that INEC was honest while an even more
monumental fraud was underway. Leader of the Green Party,
Olisa Agbakoba, told us that the Coalition of Nigerian
Political Parties would probably file a lawsuit seeking an
entirely new registration exercise. The CNPP, comprised of
twelve opposition parties, would meet within the next few
days to decide whether to file suit. The hesitance was not
with the suit's propriety but over its potential effect on
the electoral schedule, he stated.



4. (C) Agbakoba, founder of the Nigeria's best-known human
rights group, the Civil Liberties Organization, averred the
Coalition possessed hard evidence that millions of voter
cards had been hoarded by the GON and PDP. They warehoused
the cards, promising to give a set number of cards to each
PDP nominee at the local, state and national levels to sway
general elections in their favor. Knowledge of this
improper fringe benefit was another reason the PDP
primaries were being so hotly contested, asserted Agbakoba.
(Comment: Agbakoba's offered no corroborating evidence and
currently we cannot gauge the credibility of his
allegation. On its face, such a massive fraud seems
unlikely because the chances of disclosure are too high;
however, Agbakoba is usually a fairly careful interlocutor.
At the very least, If he believes this charge, we can be
sure that other opposition politicians do as well. Comment.



5. (C) The suit would simply add to INEC's registration
woes. Due to INEC's lethargic bureaucracy and unforeseen
glitches, the Commission is weeks behind schedule in
finalizing the voters list. Originally set for release this
month, the list will take "quite a few weeks" in the words
of the UN election expert who works with the Commission.
Assuming everything runs smoothly, she said, "January 15 is
the earliest possible date" for releasing the list. Cook
believed that early to mid-February is more likely and we
concur.



6. (C) While not assuaging the new political parties,
INEC's plans to hold a "mop up" registration in January
could improve the quality of the registration exercise and
incrementally increase voter confidence in INEC. INEC's
initial plan was to conduct the supplementary registration
process only from local government headquarters -- 774
locations instead of the 120,000 sites used in September.
Amenable to pressure from the political parties, INEC
ultimately decided to conduct the supplemental registration
at the over 8000 ward headquarters nationwide. The parties
had complained that local government headquarters were too
few and too far between to be accessible for many Nigerians
during the brief, supplemental registration. Uncertainly
still surrounds this endeavor; although INEC plans this
abbreviated exercise next month, it still has not received
the extra funding to conduct it.



7. (C) INEC has not explicitly stated whether the
supplemental registration could affect its electoral
timetable (para 8). The current electoral law mandates a
minimum of 60 days between the publication of the voters
rolls and the conduct of any election. With all state and
federal elections now slated for consecutive weeks in
April, publication of the registration list, including the
supplemental lists, must occur in February. Local
government elections, which are run by state electoral
commissions (SIECs) not INEC, are also governed by the 60-
day proviso. (SIECs cannot hold elections until given
updated lists by INEC, however.) This schedule is tight
and cannot accommodate much delay. Recognizing this, INEC
has suggested that it will seek to add more flexibility to
the timetable by asking the National Assembly to amend the
electoral law by shortening the 60-day waiting period.
ELECTORAL TIMETABLE

8. (U) On December 20, INEC published the long-awaited
electoral timetable. Below are the major aspects of the
schedule:






-- Collection of Forms from INEC by the Parties (December
20 - January 4):


(a) Forms listing candidate's and personal particulars;


(b) Nomination forms December 23, 2002 - January 2003


-- Submission of Lists of candidates by political parties
January 5-11, 2003;


-- Publication of personal particulars of candidates
January 22, 2003;


-- Return of nomination forms by political parties January
16-22, 2003;


-- Publication of list of nominated candidates January 11-
18, 2003;


-- Substitution of candidates February 25-March 4, 2003;
and
-- Publication of notice of poll March 20, 2003


ELECTIONS


- National Assembly April 12, 2003
- Presidential/Gubernatorial April 19, 2003
- Possible run-off April 26, 2003
- Possible second run-off April 29, 2003
- State House of Assembly May 3, 2003



9. (SBU) The new political parties railed that the December
and January deadlines for selecting candidates and
presenting INEC with information about the candidates
placed unrealistic time constraints on the parties.
Predictably, the parties claimed that INEC was slave to a
script favoring the PDP. However, INEC did respond when
the parties criticized the initial electoral schedule INEC
proposed. That INEC proposal led with the presidential
elections. INEC shifted the presidential contest toward the
end of the elections sequence after the smaller opposition
parties protested. They cried that the bandwagon effect
from the presidential elections would influence the
subsequent contests and compel voters toward the winning
party.


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ELECTION OBSERVERS
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10. (C) Based on her recent conversations with Guobadia,
UN elections expert Margaret Cook told us that the MFA
would issue invitations to potential foreign observers.
The invitations are expected to go to foreign missions,
international organizations and private organizations. No
list has been developed, though, and she advised that any
interested party not in receipt of the invitation should
contact either INEC or the MFA. She said that she believed
the list would be "fairly comprehensive" with regards to
foreign missions and should include major international
organizations such as the UN, EU and AU. INEC had informed
us that invitations would be sent by last week. However,
they were not, and INEC has not provided a new date.



11. (C) Comment: Today's INEC is much less sanguine about
elections monitors than the 1999 INEC. The announcement
that observers will be invited but the delay in sending the
invitations could well be a conscious passive-aggressive
tack. INEC and the GON may be stalling the invitations for
as long as possible in order to discourage and minimize the
number of observers. Not many organizations have the
capacity to quickly field observer teams if invitations are
received too late in the electoral cycle. End Comment.


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FOR THE LACK OF MONEY
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12. (SBU) Lack of funding continues to be a stumbling
block. Despite approval of INEC's 27 billion Naira
allocation (USD 200 million),INEC has not received the
actual funding to date. INEC states that it cannot begin to
order crucial material such as ballot paper and ballot
boxes until it actually receives the funds. Moreover, it
appears that INEC has not even made much headway in
determining the design of the paper, a task that has been
complicated by the advent of so many new parties.


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MEANWHILE...
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13. (U) The major parties are moving forward with their
nominating processes, putting both INEC and the smaller
parties under pressure. However, unresolved rifts within
the ANPP (the rump APP continues to protest) and protests
against results in certain gubernatorial and senatorial
primaries provide fuel for injunction requests and other
legal challenges, as well as a risk of renewed electoral
violence.
ANDREWS