NIGERIA: DECEMBER POLITICAL UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 003372

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O.12958: DECL: 12/23/07
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SOCI KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: DECEMBER POLITICAL UPDATE

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE TIM ANDREWS. REASONS 1.5 (B) and
(D).



1. (U) This periodic update for political events in
Nigeria includes items of interest from recent weeks.
Topics covered in this edition include:


-- INEC: 30 Political Associations for Registration
-- Cabinet Shake-Up
-- Rimi and Others Sue the PDP


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OPENING THE POLITICAL SPACE: 30 NEW POLTIICAL PARTIES
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2. (U) Pursuant to the Supreme Court decision that
previous guidelines for registering political parties
were unconstitutional and too stringent, the
Independent National Election Commission (INEC)
begrudgingly registered 24 new parties in December.
The new parties are:


National Conscience Party (NCP),
People's Redemption Party (PRP),
Movement for Democracy and Justice (MDJ),
National Reformation Party (NRP),
All Peoples Liberation Party (APLP),
Better Nigeria Progressive Party (BNPP),
Community Party of Nigeria (CPN),
Democratic Alternative (DA),
Justice Party (JP),
Liberal Democratic Party of Nigeria (LDPN),
Masses Movement of Nigeria (MMN),
National Action Council (NAC),
National Mass Movement of Nigeria (NMMN),
New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP),
New Democrats (ND),
Nigeria Advance Party (NAP),
Nigerian Peoples Congress (NPC),
Party for Social Democracy (PSD),
Peoples Mandate Party (PMP),
Peoples Salvation Party (PSP),
Progressive Action Congress (PAC),
Action Renaissance Party (ARP),
United Democratic Party (UDP),and
Green Party of Nigeria (GPN).



3. (SBU) Many of these parties are insignificant and
barely exist outside the imagination of their
founders. However, some are headed by respected
politicians such as former Kaduna Governor Balarabe
Musa (PRP),former Police Inspector M. D. Yusufu
(MDJ),human rights firebrand Gani Fawahenmi (NCP),
and perennial presidential contestant Tunji
Braithwaite (NAP). Well-known human rights attorney
Olisa Agbakoba, a long-shot presidential candidate in
the PDP, jumped to the Green Party when it was allowed
to register. None of these parties have a chance of
capturing the Presidency, and few have any chance of
winning many seats in State Assemblies, to say nothing
of the National Assembly.



4. (C) However, the inclusion of these parties
represents an opening of the political space. For many
Nigerians the new parties symbolize a possible
alternative to the monetized politics of the major
parties. Now less-affluent but more ideologically
oriented politicians can head parties and use these
parties as their platforms to address the public. Some
of these players and their parties have committed
pockets of followers, albeit relatively small, in key
areas. They might affect numerous local government
races and perhaps have limited impact in some state
level races. Most of these parties are Southern-based.
The five to seven best-organized new parties are
discussing an electoral alliance under the rubric of
the Coalition of Nigerian Political Parties (CNPP).



5. (C) The danger always exists that proliferation of
parties will confuse the electorate or encourage
ethnic or regional politics. This was the rationale
used in the recent past to thwart registration of
these parties. However, most Nigerians welcomed the
registration of the parties. They see it as a vehicle
to improve grassroots participation. The advent of
these parties should engender a greater sense of
freedom of association and foster the perception that
politics need not be the exclusive reserve of the
wealthy. Additionally, pressure from the new parties
might help make INEC more transparent in its electoral
preparations.



6. (C) Cynical observers claim registration of the new
parties was not based on principle but expediency.
They contend the Presidency and PDP wanted to increase
the number of parties to fragment and dilute the
opposition. This argument has some merit and cannot be
completely ignored. Conventional wisdom within the PDP
is that the increase in parties favors them. However,
the PDP gaining advantage from this is not entirely
certain. Much will depend on the candidates these
parties may present and how they match up with PDP
candidates as well as the candidates from the other
previously registered parties, particularly the main
opposition party, the ANPP.


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CABINET SHAKE-UP
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7. (C) President Obasanjo and the Federal Executive
Council (FEC) named new ministers to replace those who
resigned to participate in the upcoming elections.
Controversial Minister of Works and Housing Chief Tony
Anenih resigned to concentrate on his responsibilities
as Deputy National Coordinator of the Obasanjo/Atiku
reelection campaign. Minister of State Garba Madaki
replaces Anenih at the helm of Works and Housing.
Anenih's removal was one of the conditions Vice
President Atiku and former Head of State Babangida had
given to Obasanjo for supporting his reelection. While
intervening events make Babangida's support unlikely,
Anenih's resignation probably has made Atiku more
comfortable about remaining on the Obasanjo ticket.
Clearly there was no love lost between Atiku and
Anenih. That Anenih now serves directly under Atiku,
the de facto campaign manager, compounds the former
minister's diminution.



8. (C) Internal Affairs Minister Sunday Afolabi also
quit to join the reelection campaign. Minister of
State Mohammed Shata replaced him. (Afolabi is from
the Southwest and is expected to work on assuring
Obasanjo's base among the Yorubas.) Minister of Power
and Steel Dr. Segun Agagu resigned to run for governor
in Ondo State. His replacement is a fellow Yoruba, Olu
Agunloye. Minister of Commerce Alhaji Mustapha Bello
will contest the gubernatorial election in Niger
State. Bellow was replaced by Minister of State for
Water Resources, Precious Ngele. Current Niger State
Governor Kure, although in the PDP, is a Babangida
acolyte. There was speculation that the contest
between Kure and Bello could turn into a proxy war for
Babangida and Obasanjo. However, true to the policy of
supporting incumbent PDP governors, public statements
from the Presidency have been supportive of Kure and
silent about Bello. Meanwhile, Minister of Finance
Adamu Ciroma retains his portfolio despite his nominal
duties as the Obasanjo/Atiku campaign national
coordinator.


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RIMI SUES THE PDP
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9. (U) Former Kano State Governor and long-shot PDP
presidential aspirant Abubakar Rimi has lodged two
legal complaints against his party. Joined by fellow
long-shot candidate Barnabas Gemade, Rimi complains
that the decision to zone the presidency to the South
contravened the party constitution. PDP Chairman Audu
Ogbeh, however, might have taken some of the wind from
this complaint by explaining that the decision to zone
the presidency to the three Southern political zones
was not final until approved by the party's National
Executive Committee. (Both Rimi and Gemade would be
eliminated if the presidency were zoned to the South.
Likewise, VP Atiku would be foreclosed as well.
Obasanjo and his most potent primary opposition, Alex
Ekwueme are both Southerners.)



10. (C) Rimi's suit contesting the allocation of
voting delegates to the national convention is perhaps
even more important. This suit seeks to overturn a
2001 amendment to the PDP constitution. The amendment
makes most classes of presidential appointees
(presidential advisors, ambassadors, heads of
parastatals, etc.) voting delegates at the national
convention that will select the party's presidential
candidate. Given the swollen number of advisors and
others appointees, this amendments provides Obasanjo
the very significant lead in recapturing the
nomination. (Comment: While motivated by selfish
reasons, Rimi's suits, if successful, would inject
greater openness into the PDP's presidential selection
process. Rimi's suits are not logically consistent. On
one hand, he grouses that zoning contravenes the party
constitution. In the second suit, be asserts that the
party constitution is wrong. The possibility of
winning either argument is uncertain but chances are
the courts will not let Rimi have it both ways. End
Comment.)



11. (U) The party constitution also gives similar
favor to state governors. Due to this provision and
other alleged irregularities, a group of non-incumbent
gubernatorial contestants in the PDP successfully won
a temporary injunction in early December stopping the
party's gubernatorial primaries. However, the Chief
Justice of the Federal High Court in Abuja reportedly
quashed the injunction on December 20, giving the PDP
a green light to conduct the gubernatorial caucuses.
ANDREWS