Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ABUJA3303
2002-12-12 15:58:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: NOVEMBER 25 "FRIENDS GROUP" MEETING

Tags:  PGOV KDEM PREL NI 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003303 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2012
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NOVEMBER 25 "FRIENDS GROUP" MEETING


REF: A. ABUJA 2831

B. ABUJA 3033


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (B &
D).


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 003303

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/09/2012
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: NOVEMBER 25 "FRIENDS GROUP" MEETING


REF: A. ABUJA 2831

B. ABUJA 3033


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (B &
D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: Ambassador Jeter hosted the third meeting
of Chiefs of Mission of Germany, France, Canada, and the
U.K. Deputy High Commissioner on November 25 to discuss
upcoming Nigerian elections. The November 25 meeting
concentrated on the need for uniform standards by which to
judge Nigeria's 2003 elections, local elections monitors,
international observers, and the need for a political party
Code of Conduct. The group agreed to a list of actions to
be taken by mid-December in order to move the electoral
process forward. End Summary.



2. (C) Ambassador Jeter invited the Chiefs of Mission of
Germany, France, Canada and the U.K. to continue
discussions (reftels) November 25. The group identified
four important issues to address:


-- international observers;


-- support for local NGOs' observation efforts;


-- a political "Code of Conduct;" and


-- INEC's continued logistical shortcomings.



3. (C) The group began by discussing acceptable
parameters for Nigeria's 2003 election. Ambassador Jeter
commented that the most important issue was acceptance by
the Nigerian electorate, although the international
community should continue to push for an improvement on the
1999 elections performance. German Ambassador Dietmar
Kreusel said that the European Union (EU) Heads of Mission
in Abuja are preparing a report on the status of elections
preparation and prospects for a successful exercise, which
he promised to share with the "Friends Group" when
completed. He then noted that the EU saw little prospect
for free and fair elections, so finding acceptable
alternative criteria would be important. (COMMENT: There
was general agreement that a strict "free and fair" test
would doom Nigeria to failure. An agreed defensible
alternative test that Nigeria might reasonably be expected
to pass could not be formulated during the meeting. The
U.K. held out for 1999 or better, a criterion most others
questioned Nigeria's likelihood of satisfying. END
COMMENT.)



4. (C) Turning to the issue of elections monitors, the

group reported some confusion on the Nigerian side about
the process by which the international community would be
allowed to monitor elections. While officials in the
Presidency and INEC indicated support for the idea, no
entity clearly had the lead. Ambassador Jeter reported
that MFA was acutely reticent to step in before holding
discussions with INEC and knowing such fundamentals as
timing, elections sequencing, etc. The MFA has noted the
"sensitivity" of the 2003 elections, and the need for
Nigerians to work out the modalities for the way forward.
Kreusel said that an EU team had been told the GON "would
categorically not" issue invitations, but will entertain
"requests for permission" to observe. He warned that it
would be logistically impossible to mobilize the
approximately 100 EU observers on short notice. British
Deputy High Commissioner Charles Bird said he had been told
that the "State Security Service needs to approve all
observers" so a list of candidates should be submitted in
time for the appropriate security checks. The group
discussed the merits of accrediting local diplomats as
official observers, and tentatively agreed that arguments
for and against this practice suggested a combined
approach. They suggested that some diplomats might be
accredited, while others should observe elections merely as
diplomats accredited to Nigeria.



5. (C) Ambassador Jeter recommended coordinating
international support to domestic monitoring groups,
pointing to USAID support for the TMG in the 1999 elections
as a model. Bird said that, from the British perspective,
TMG lacked the capabilities it had in 1999. All agreed on
the need to support local monitors and on the importance of
identifying credible groups. They also agreed that most of
the current groups involved in the monitoring process were
dominated by southerners and highlighted the importance of
recruiting northern NGOs to participate in 2003.



6. (C) Ambassador Jeter stressed the importance of
convincing INEC and the political parties to adopt a "Code
of Conduct" for elections activities. The other members of
the group asked for copies of the INEC-produced draft from
earlier in 2002. This issue will be taken up at the next
meeting of the Friends Group, with discussion of how a
credible and workable Code can be achieved.

7. (C) Canadian High Commissioner Howard Strauss said
that the flawed registration process appeared no closer to
resolution. Bird maintained that INEC Chairman Dr. Abel
Guobadia was put in place "to deliver Obasanjo;" thus, INEC
instinctively opposed observers or any type of electoral
support that would interfere with ensuring Obasanjo's
reelection. He warned that by investing in INEC, the
international community could be put in the position of
validating a flawed process. The group agreed that INEC
had yet to provide enough information to evaluate its
chances of (or interest in) success.



8. (C) The group reached consensus on four specific
actions:


-- send diplomatic notes individually to MFA and the
Presidency requesting information about the guidelines for
observer accreditation;
-- identify potential northern groups to serve as
elections monitors;


-- push INEC and the parties to adopt a "Code of Conduct;"
and


-- maintain pressure on INEC, individually and
collectively, to respond to concerns arising from the
flawed registration process and INEC's lack of progress in
preparing for credible elections.



9. (U) The "Friends Group" will meet again following the
upcoming holidays.
JETER