NIGERIA: PRESIDENT OBASANJO SUPPORTS CODE OF

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 003256

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O.12958: DECL: 09/23/12
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL SOCI KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRESIDENT OBASANJO SUPPORTS CODE OF
CONDUCT, PLEDGES TO FUND INEC

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASONS 1.5
(B) AND (D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: During a November 20 meeting with
USAID Administrator Andrew Natsios and Ambassador
Jeter, President Obasanjo endorsed an all-parties Code
of Conduct and promised to honor INEC's 27 billion
Naira (USD 210 million) 2003 elections funding
request. Obasanjo expressed confidence that electoral
violence would be contained. He downplayed criticism
of the voter registration exercise but stated that he
would press INEC to quicken logistical preparations
for the elections. Throughout the meeting both Natsios
and Jeter stressed the importance of free, fair and
peaceful elections not only for Nigeria but also for
Africa and initiatives like NEPAD. Obasanjo pledged to
do his utmost to ensure that the elections would be
credible. End Summary.


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OBASANJO SAYS VIOLENCE WILL NOT DERAIL ELECTIONS
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2. (C) After a quick overview of AID's programs and
presence, Administrator Natsios told President
Obasanjo that, while President Bush wanted to visit
Nigeria, it would be difficult to do so if there were
widespread violence associated with upcoming
elections. The Administrator stressed that President
Bush had explicitly asked him to relay these concerns
to his friend President Obasanjo. Obasanjo quipped
that much of the tension and uncertainty was generated
by people preoccupied about whether he would "come or
go". More seriously, he admitted being "a little bit
concerned" about electoral violence but believed
"prospects were good" for containing it. Obasanjo
indicated government efforts to minimize violence were
beginning to bear fruit. To stem violence, the
security forces must have the clear mandate that all
violators should be arrested and none is above the
law, he posited. Obasanjo recalled police hesitation
at arresting a PDP senator who was caught interfering
with voter registration. When the police explained
they feared arresting an elected member of the ruling
party, Obasanjo told them the senator should have been
among the first arrested in order to send a public
message that no one was above the law. (Comment:
Obasanjo's account is reassuring but also self-
serving. We have not seen reports of a PDP senator
arrested for interference with the voter registration.
End Comment.)





3. (C) Obasanjo identified the Southeastern region
and Plateau State as troubled areas where he has
conferred with the affected governors about quashing
electoral violence. In conjunction with the Anambra
and Abia states, the federal government has crack-
downed on the vigilante Bakassi Boys in those two
states. Obasanjo pointed to Enugu State as the most
complex problem in the Southeast. A few advisors
close to the Governor have been implicated in
violence. Governor Nnamani had sworn noninvolvement;
however, it was apparent that Obasanjo had second
thoughts about the Governor's disavowal.



4. (C) Obasanjo predicted little violence in his
ethnic home base, the Southwest. The region would not
live up to its moniker as the "wild, wild West" as
long as the rival parties, the "AD and PDP talk as
they should," he stated cryptically. (Comment:
Obasanjo may have good reason to be sanguine about the
Southwest. Apparently, he and the AD governors of the
six Southwest states are close to an electoral modus
vivendi whereby the Governors will support Obasanjo's
presidency if Obasanjo does not actively support the
PDP gubernatorial candidates in those states during
the general elections. Perhaps it was no coincidence
that the AD National Chairman was in the waiting room
when our group was leaving the Villa. End Comment.)



5. (C) When Administrator Natsios mentioned a Code of
Conduct as the best mechanism to elicit public
commitment to non-violence by all political parties,
Obasanjo enthusiastically endorsed the idea and asked
that we help Nigeria establish such a Code. Obasanjo
continued that the National Assembly had recently
rejected an electoral violence bill he had proposed.
It was considered "too harsh" by those members who
thought it could be used against them. The bill, he
explained, provided that any elected official could be
investigated for participation in electoral violence
but would only be tried after leaving office. The
measure also contained a provision for restitution by
the wrongdoer to those harmed by his misconduct.
Apparently undaunted by the Assembly's prior
rejection, Obasanjo asserted that he would resubmit
the bill. After Ambassador Jeter stressed the
usefulness of all parties gathering to publicly
renounce violence, Obasanjo nodded at the suggestion,
saying he would get the parties to agree to such an
event. (Comment: The impetus behind the violence bill
was laudable but the measure was poorly written. Some
lawmakers reasonably feared that overzealous security
forces might abuse its overbroad language to stifle
the political campaigns of non-office holders. End
Comment)


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INEC -- ELECTION PREPARATIONS AND FUNDING
--------------



6. (C) During the meeting Administrator Natsios
repeatedly voiced concern about INEC logistical
preparations for the elections. Time was getting
short; INEC needed to quicken the pace of ordering
essential material like ballot boxes and paper.
Obasanjo replied that INEC could use the boxes from
the 1999 contests. When Ambassador Jeter mentioned the
current stock might be insufficient for next year's
elections, Obasanjo seemed genuinely surprised. He
stated he would talk to INEC Chairman Guobadia about
its logistical planning.



7. (C) Obasanjo declared that funding INEC was
"priority number one". Press reports were inaccurate
that INEC requested 36 billion Naira (USD 275 million)
in its supplemental budget. The INEC supplemental was
27 billion (7 billion Naira to pay for September
voters registration exercise, 20 billion Naira for
balloting material and 300 million for party
registration). He instructed the Finance Minister to
fund the request completely and immediately lest he be
threatened with impeachment again, Obasanjo joked. He
added that he also was intent to recover the 21
million Naira lost in a scandal regarding the INEC
legal department that was discovered several months
ago.



8. (C) Regarding voter registration, Obasanjo's did
not seem to understand that many, if not most,
Nigerians saw the exercise as flawed. Responding to
Natsios's question, Obasanjo discounted claims of
widespread under-registration and stated that those
who were unable to register could submit a claim
during the normal five day review period following the
publication of the voters roll by INEC. Somewhat
contradicting himself, however, he said that
politicians bought and hoarded forms believing that
they could stack the voter lists in their favor by
having loyalists only complete the forms. Otherwise,
he said, there was no reason for a shortage of forms.



9. (C) Obasanjo felt the security features in the
computerization process of the forms would winnow the
resultant multiple registrations out of the system.
The President then described a demonstration of the
thumbprint analysis that INEC was employing to detect
multiple registrations. He was confident the
computerized thumbprint analysis, conducted at each
stage of tabulation from the ward to the national
level, would detect multiple registrations by the same
person. (Comment: Obasanjo's explanation that under-
registration was not a major problem is unconvincing.
Politicians illegally hoarding forms could have
precluded numbers of innocent, eligible voters from
registering. His statements suggest the President has
been paying more attention to catching fraudulent
registrants than in remedying the inability of
innocent citizens to register. Even there, however,
his confidence in INEC's security features might be
too high. End Comment)



10. (C) Natsios emphasized that the coming elections
were not only important to Nigeria and the bilateral
relationship, but also to Africa and to such
continental initiatives like NEPAD. Western nations
would view the quality of Nigerian elections as a
barometer of commitment of Africa's largest nation to
the good governance objectives of NEPAD. Meanwhile,
other African countries would view the elections as a
good or bad precedent to follow. Obasanjo cautioned
that Washington must not view the process entirely
through a Western optic. Understanding of Nigeria's
background was important. For example, increased
communal violence in the past years, ironically, was a
by-product of democracy. Before 1999, the military
brutally suppressed but did nothing to resolve
underlying communal problems. The advent of democracy
and its concomitant freedoms have allowed people to
express themselves, sometimes violently. Obasanjo
maintained the frequent communal violence in Plateau
State was inevitable because tensions had been there
for a long time but military suppression kept these
fractures hidden. As a democratically elected leader,
Obasanjo said that he could not employ the same
tactics. Instead, at his urging, Plateau Governor
Dariye was spending more time talking to the rival
communities. The violence was slowly abating, Obasanjo
claimed.

11. (C) Pointing to the Yoruba greeting practice of
youth prostrating before elders as an example,
Obasanjo contended important cultural differences
would mark differences in democratic practices in
Nigeria and the West. Natsios emphasized that the
NEPAD good governance standards were not Western
imports but were authored by Obasanjo and other
African leaders. Visibly warming to this topic,
Obasanjo cited the example of corruption as an
abhorrent dysfunction that unfortunately had gotten a
foothold in Nigeria's political economy. While
corruption was not part of traditional culture, time
would be needed to uproot it from the political
system. Likewise, eliminating political violence would
take time. In the interim, Nigeria would continue to
build its democracy by keeping what is vital to its
culture, discarding what is harmful, and borrowing
what is good and relevant from the West, Obasanjo
maintained.



12. (C) By campaigning on substantive issues and
letting people freely criticize him, Obasanjo hoped to
set a personal example in excising violence and
promoting tolerance. In this regard, Obasanjo said he
welcomed other contenders for the PDP presidential
nomination. "The more the merrier," he asserted.



13. (C) Natsios mentioned that he and Secretary Powell
had successfully fought for, and President Bush had
approved, an unprecedented 25 percent increase in
regular development assistance to Africa over and
above funding from the Millennium Challenge Account.
However, in Washington and throughout the Western
donor community, there was skepticism about whether
that money would be put to good use unless it were
allocated to countries with demonstrated good
performance. Nigeria could diminish the negativism by
holding credible elections, Natsios said. Conversely
bad elections would diminish those who had advocated
increased assistance to Africa. Obasanjo acknowledged
the point by stating that he knew political violence
and the Shari'a adultery stoning sentences had put
Nigeria in an ugly light. As the meeting concluded,
both Natsios and Jeter reiterated the importance of
Nigeria holding its first successful civilian-run
elections. Obasanjo shook his head affirmatively,
vowing to do all in his powers to do just that -- to
conduct good elections.


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FOND MEMORIES OF AID
--------------



14. (U) Obasanjo expressed deep appreciation for
current USAID programs and assistance in Nigeria. He
also mentioned, with visible fondness, how USAID
assistance had helped construct the "first
comprehensive high school in Nigeria", located in
Obasanjo's home state, Ogun. Down there, people see
USAID as America, he told Natsios.


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COMMENT
--------------



15. (C) The meeting was generally positive. Despite
the phalanx of officials and politicians waiting to
see him, Obasanjo was relaxed, engaging and generous
with his time. Administrator Natsios was able to make
our key points. By endorsing the Code of Conduct and
pledging to fund INEC, Obasanjo took two of those
three key points on board. On the third major point,
his take on voter registration was disappointing;
Obasanjo appeared not to fully appreciate the public's
criticism of the exercise. However, remedying the gaps
in voter registration lies in INEC's exclusive purview
and its Chairman told Natsios that INEC would reopen
voter registration in December or January 2003
(septel).



16. (C) While Obasanjo's statements were encouraging,
we also know that stifling violence will be easier
said than done. Obasanjo took the high road and seemed
overly optimistic. The much of the violence in Kaduna
that claimed hundreds of lives began the day of the
meeting and the riots in Abuja took place only two
days after.



17. (U) The Administrator cleared this message.
JETER