NIGERIA: PRELIMINARY TENTATIVE TIMETABLE FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 003153

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/18/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PRELIMINARY TENTATIVE TIMETABLE FOR
ELECTIONS


REF: ABUJA 3139


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (B &
D).


SUMMARY
--------------



1. (SBU) To help Washington (and us) track events, we
have developed the following electoral timetable based on
the best information available at this point. This
tentative calendar provides schedules for political party
activities and for holding of elections. However, we have
to add several important caveats. INEC continues to lag
behind in its preparations (reftel). One of the issues
still in gestation is the actual dates for holding the
elections. Additionally, many other issues remain to be
resolved before a timetable is finalized. This is the best
current information but it is fluid and we expect many of
these dates to change. Dates to watch are:


Nov. 21, 2002 - Supreme Court releases written decision on
-- its ruling that INEC's registration guidelines
-- were too stringent.


Nov. 29, 2002 - Supreme Court decision on the 2002
-- Electoral Bill (the court will decide on INEC's
-- objection to the law's provision to hold all
-- state and federal elections on the same day.)


December, 2002 - INEC promises voters list by an
-- unspecified date this month (or early January)


Dec. 10 - Ruling PDP requires candidate nominations for
-- local government elections and other party
-- caucuses


Dec. 21 - PDP requires candidate nominations for all other
-- elections (except President) by this day


Jan. 3-5, 2003 - PDP Presidential caucus scheduled


Jan. 7 - ANPP Presidential caucus scheduled


February - Local government elections possible during this
-- month


March - State (Gubernatorial and State Assembly) and
-- National Assembly elections possible


April - Presidential election possible (Depending on the
-- outcome of INEC's lawsuit challenging the 2002
-- electoral law, all state and federal elections
-- may take place on the same day. If the election
-- is not held between March 29 and April 29,
-- constitutional issues could be raised.)


May 29 - Constitutionally mandated handover to newly-
-- elected government


END SUMMARY.


ELECTIONS
--------------



2. (C) The Independent Nigerian Election Commission
(INEC) and the largest political parties continue their
preparations for the 2003 elections. INEC is primarily
focused on finding a way to salvage its problematic
September voter registration exercise (reftel) and has not
given sufficient attention to preparations for the actual
conducting of elections or even to the preparation of a
final electoral timetable. Even though the National
Assembly appropriated 27.8 billion Naira for INEC last
week, there is no indication of when those funds will be
released. Further, by Guobadia's own estimate, INEC needs
19.8 billion Naira to complete the registration process,
leaving a balance of only 8 billion Naira (about $61
million, or $1 per voter) for an expected four separate
elections. Still, INEC Chairman Dr. Abel Guobadia
commented last week that the voters list is expected by
"early December" and predicted Local Government Authority
elections in February. He refused to provide more detail
to the reporter, but said that Presidential elections will
hold "in April." In large part, the timetable will depend
on the outcome of the Supreme Court hearing on the 2002
Electoral Bill. A decision on that is expected on November
29, 2002.



3. (SBU) Working back from the May 29, 2003 deadline for
handing over to a newly-elected government, the following
two scenarios emerge. The first timetable assumes
staggered elections (INEC's preference).


Scenario I
--------------
-- early-December - Voters list issued for public scrutiny
-- early-January - Final voters list available
-- early-March - Local Government Authority elections held
-- mid-March - State elections held
-- early April - Federal elections held
-- mid-April - Presidential elections held.


This timeline leaves little room for error and flexibility
is limited by the current lack of planning and the
constitutionally-mandated handover date.


Scenario II
--------------



4. (SBU) If elections are held under the new 2002
Electoral law, the latest dates possible are:


-- mid-January - Voters list issued for public scrutiny
-- mid-February - Final voters list available
-- mid-April - Local Government Authority elections held
-- late-April - State, Federal, and Presidential elections
held.


The 2002 Electoral Act allows for compressing the elections
schedule within constitutional limits. However, the
Presidency and State Governors are opposed to holding
elections on the same day, believing that it would diminish
the coattail effect of their hoped-for election victories
on national and state assembly elections. The National
Assembly, on the other hand, favors a single-day poll.
During a meeting with the President on November 20
(septel),he again repeated his belief that Presidential,
State and National Assembly elections on the same day were
"impossible."


PARTY CAUCUSES
--------------



5. (SBU) Among the parties currently registered, only the
ruling PDP has announced a relatively complete timeline for
holding its party caucuses. The results of the PDP's ward-
level caucus are to be submitted by November 23, 2002. The
vast majority of ward congresses were conducted in July, so
the November 23 deadline may not pose a major hurdle. The
joker in the deck is possible court challenges, as many of
the caucuses were disrupted or called into question because
of alleged rigging or intimidation. (PDP ward congresses
select candidates for LGA offices and nominate ten
delegates to the state caucus.)



6. (U) By Dec. 10, the LGA caucus should select state
assembly candidates, three delegates to the State party
congress and one delegate to the National congress. The
State congresses have been instructed by the PDP's party
headquarters to select candidates for the "Federal
Constituency" by Dec. 17, Senatorial candidates by Dec. 21,
and its Presidential aspirant by Jan 3 - 5 (a national
convention?).



7. (SBU) The All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP) is split
into at least two factions and is embroiled in lawsuits
over the authority of the various factions. Like the PDP,
most of the ward-level work was completed months ago but
the steps leading up to its Presidential congress have not
been announced. Regardless of the ANPP's decision, the
party will strive to delay major decisions until after the
PDP party congress has announced a Presidential ticket.
ANPP officials have told us they will seek to nominate the
candidate judged most likely to defeat the PDP standard
bearer. At a party convention held in Enugu November 16-17
by one faction, the party's name was officially changed to
ANPP from All People's Party (APP) and January 7 was set as
the date for selecting a presidential candidate. The other
faction is contesting the change and the date.



8. (SBU) The Alliance for Democracy (AD) also held ward
congresses, but has been modifying some of the decisions
taken months ago. It has not advanced very far in planning
its primaries for State, Federal and Presidential
elections. The three new parties, UNPP, ANGA, and the NDP
have not announced timelines. The AD is primarily a
regional party, and the other three are untested vehicles
for electoral competition. None has a presidential
candidate of national stature at this time.



9. (C) COMMENT: Timelines are not fixed and most dates
are subject to change. The only date which is fixed is the
May 29 inauguration of a new civilian government. With six
months left, the PDP and the ANPP are currently the only
two parties with discernible national structures and with
probable presidential candidates who have the stature and
exposure to be a factor in the 2003 elections. However, we
cannot count the other parties out. As the politicking
unfolds, there will be carpet-crossing and defections.



10. (C) COMMENT CONTINUED: The lack of definite
schedules by the political parties is one thing, the torpor
of INEC is quite another. INEC is the key to a successful
electoral process, and the chances of that will be enhanced
the sooner INEC can promulgate a definitive schedule and
show that it is working towards implementing it. Already,
we are hearing murmurs among some politicians that they
expect elections to be postponed beyond the constitutional
limit, an action which would be highly controversial. The
electoral schedule is another issue that the Mission,
independently and within the context of the "Friends"
group, will be taking up with INEC.


JETER