Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ABUJA3105
2002-11-14 14:49:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: "PATRIOTS" ASK OBASANJO TO

Tags:  PREL PGOV KDEM PINR NI 
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C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 003105 

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2007
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: "PATRIOTS" ASK OBASANJO TO
FOREGO SECOND TERM


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 003105

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/30/2007
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM PINR NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: "PATRIOTS" ASK OBASANJO TO
FOREGO SECOND TERM


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).



1. ( C) Summary: Chief Frederick Rotimi Williams, prominent
Lagos attorney and charter member of the "Patriots", a group of
prominent Southern and Middle Belt figures, told Ambassador Jeter
on October 21 that the "Patriots" had issued a public statement urging
President Obasanjo not to seek re-election because his quest for re-
election was creating too much political tension. Moreover, the
"Patrots" believe that and that the time is now ripe for a President
from the South-South. Despite championing a South-South
Presidency, Williams could not readily name one viable candidate
from that region. As part of their deliberations on reducing electoral
tension, the "Patriots" also proposed single term limits for the
President and State Governors. Williams likewise called for a
National Conference to explore constitutional changes that would
allow all geopolitical zones equitable participation in national
leadership. Williams felt that former military Head of State, Ibrahim
Babangida, as well as current Vice President Abubakar
Atiku would be unacceptable presidential candidates in the South.
Joining the Ambassador at the October 21 meeting were PolCouns
and Lagos PolOff. End Summary.





2. (C) During a visit to Lagos, Ambassador met Chief Rotimi
Williams at his law firm on October 21, to discuss the "Patriots"'
October 15 press statement. Williams, an imposing man with a
venerable presence, told the Ambassador that the "Patriots" saw
Obasanjo's quest for a second term as the primary factor in
Nigeria's roiling political equation. If Obasanjo disavowed his
ambition, politics would calm considerably, Williams stated. Thus,
for the sake of political sobriety and equilibrium, the "Patriots"
concluded that Obasanjo should forego a second term. Williams
continued that, by eschewing a second term, Obasanjo would be
helping to forge a new political reality in Nigeria. For the next
elections and for the first time in Nigerian history, the Presidency
should go to the South-South. By stepping aside, Obasanjo would be

helping to facilitate this unprecedented development. According to
Williams, the struggle for national power in Nigeria has been a
struggle between the three most important ethic groups: North/Hausa-
Fulani, Southwest/Yoruba and Southeast/Igbo. Consequently, the
victorious political alliance would always be the one that joined two
of these three dominant groups. Competition for national political
power has always centered on these groups with the usual winning
combination being a North/Southeast axis, leaving the Yoruba as the
odd man out.



3. (C) The North has used its perceived numerical majority to claim
superior, almost exclusive, title to national power, the veteran lawyer
argued. Unfortunately, "The [purported] Northern majority has not
been properly taught how to exercise its majority right," he asserted.
This numerical majority had been used to gag the political aspirations
of the lesser ethnic groups, and because the larger ethnic groups were
not adequately enlightened, Williams saw a one-term presidency to be
rotated among the six geographical zones as key to a more equal
distribution of national power.


-------------- --------------
THE "PATRIOTS": AN OCCASIONAL GATHERING OF
EMINENT PEOPLE
-------------- --------------



4. (SBU) The "Patriots" are an informal group that meets on an ad
hoc basis to discuss national issues. Originally, the group had
seventeen members drawn predominantly from the South and Middle
Belt. In the years since its 1998 inception, the group has only
publicized the results of their deliberations on two previous
occasions. Thus, the "Patriots" October 15 recommendations that the
President and Governors be limited to one five year terms attracted
significant media attention and have helped generate much public
debate. A look at the credentials of some members of the group
shows why its opinions matter.


--The current Chairperson is Chief Frederick Rotimi Williams, one of
Nigeria's
most eminent lawyers. Williams has served in senior government
positions since the mid-fifties and was Chairman of the Constitutional
Committee that drafted the 1979 Constitution.


--Chief Richard Akinjide is also a prominent attorney and recently
represented Nigeria before the International Court of Justice in the
dispute between Nigeria and Cameroon over the Bakassi peninsula;


--Chief Felix Ibru is from a wealthy family that owns "The
Guardian", the second largest newspaper in Nigeria, as well as the
Lagos Sheraton;


--Chiefs Abraham Adesanya and Ayo Adebanjo are members of the
preeminent Yoruba group, Afenifere;


--Professor Ben Nwabueze, lawyer, businessman, and professor of
constitutional law is General Secretary of Ohaneze Ndigbo, the Igbo
leadership group from the Southeast region. Nwabueze is a long time
associate of former Head of State Babangida;


--Dan Suleiman is retired military and a prominent Middle Belt figure
remembered for having been forced into exile for having opposed
late military dictator, Sani Abacha; and


--Chief Matthew Tawo Mbu has had a long and successful career as a
businessman and head of many government Ministries. He is from
Delta State in the South-South region and is the leader of the Union
of the Niger Delta, a leading socio-cultural group much like Afinefere
and Ohange.


EVERYONE SHOULD GET THE CHANCE TO BE PRESIDENT



5. (C) The dominance of national power by the three biggest blocs
has progressively embittered the Southern minorities, according to
Williams. Although the South-South was the fount of the nation's
wealth, it has remained economically poor and politically
disadvantaged. Continuation of this unjust situation would speed the
day of Nigeria's social and political explosion, he warned. Thus, the
"Patriots" hoped that a South-South President would emerge in 2003.
While the "Patriots" realized they were asking Obasanjo to give up
his personal right to contest for office, rising dissatisfaction among
the minorities in the Delta could lead to violence, Williams feared.
Obasanjo should sacrifice his personal desires for the national good.
"Now is the time to rotate the Presidency to the South-South region,
"the Patriots have all agreed that, to continue as a nation, the
ethnic
minorities must be heard."



6. (C) However, the articulate Williams stammered when the
Ambassador asked him to identify a viable candidate from the South-
South. Williams could only respond that he hoped the South-South
would put forward a credible candidate if given the opportunity. He
expressed confidence that there were qualified people in
the South-South. These politicians should be given a chance at
national leadership and not excluded simply because they did not
have enough ethnic kinsmen to buoy their political status.



7. (C) Ambassador asked if a minority candidate from the South-
South region might raise public fears in other zones that this area had
finally gotten control of the oil revenue and would try to monopolize
it. Williams countered that a candidate from the South-South would
bring the issue of resource and revenue allocation into the arena of
public debate. "We believe," he said, "that there should be a budget
allocation to the Federal Government derived from the resources of
each state." But the each State should be the primary
beneficiary of resources within its borders. Off-shore resources, he
continued, must be controlled by the Federal Government because
only the Federal Government can and should maintain the functions
such as border patrols and coast guard necessary to protect those
resources.





8. (C) Williams continued that the "Patriots" had long supported a
"National Congress" to allow all groups, but especially ethnic
minorities, to "air their views and political aspirations," and
propose
changes to the constitutional structure to allow fuller participation
and
end the alleged "second class" political status of the ethnic
minorities.
The Constitution should be changed so that every group has an
opportunity to qualify for leadership of the country.


OBASANJO VS. THE "PATRIOTS"



9. (C) When the Ambassador asked Williams about Obasanjo's
reaction to the Patriot's suggestion, Williams said Obasanjo rejected
it. The President felt he had a right to contest and did not want to
surrender that right. Obasanjo had been personally affronted and
"very annoyed" because many of the "Patriots" were long-time
friends and associates. He felt the "Patriots" should have
discussed their proposal with him privately before going public.
Williams contended that this was not a private matter but an issue of
national concern requiring public debate. Ambassador Jeter
questioned whether the fact that prominent members of Afenifere
were part of the "Patriots" group would hurt Obasanjo's bid
for re-election in that it looked like some important Yorubas were
now against him. (Comment. Afenifere is the most influential
organization in the Yoruba Southwest. Although Yoruba, Obasanjo
did not carry this region in the 1999 elections. The Alliance for
Democracy (AD),which is closely associated with Afenifere, controls
most of the Southwest. End Comment.)



10. (C ) Williams explained that the "Patriots" opposed the
impeachment threat against Obasanjo because it was ill-timed, based
on questionable motives, and could raise ethnic tensions. The
impeachment was perceived in the Southwest as an assault by
Northern politicians against a Yoruba, albeit not a very popular one.
Thus, the "Patriots" opposed impeachment because it would damage
the political system in their view; they opposed Obasanjo's second
term for the same reason, he contended. When asked whether the
"Patriots" "tried to save Obasanjo (from impeachment) so that he
could sacrifice himself ( not seek reelection)," Williams nodded in
agreement.


WELL ALMOST EVERYONE





11. (C ) The Ambassador asked Williams whether the South would
accept former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida or current Vice
President Abubakar Atiku as President. Williams was adamant that
elevation of either to the Presidency would risk "the unity of the
nation." Despite the current four years of a Yoruba President, the
"Patriots" believe that the Northern "ruling class" had held power for
too long; now was not the time for a Northern President. When asked
about a candidate from the Southeast, Williams stated that since the
Igbos have only held power during the abbreviated Ironsi military
government in the sixties, an Igbo President would not be
objectionable. He noted several possible candidates from the Igbo
Southeast. When asked about reports that the North was courting the
Southeast to finger a pliable Igbo candidate and that the "Patriots"
stance could actually be facilitating this agenda, Williams shrugged,
acknowledging the possibility.



12. (C) There is no significant political event in Nigeria without
the
Babangida factor attached to it. The Patriot's statement is no
exception. Rumor has it that IBB warned Igbo members of the
"Patriots" that power would shift to the North in 2007 for at least
eight years. Thus, the chances of these old men seeing an Igbo
President within their lifetime was nil unless that happened in 2003.
Consequently, when the "Patriots" met, the Igbos unleashed a brutal
indictment of Obasanjo which changed the course of the discussion
toward the eventual conclusion that Obasanjo should not run.
However, some "Patriots" were angered by the group's statement.
They claimed they were not invited to the meeting because of their
alleged pro-Obasanjo tendencies, and they have publicly disavowed
the October 15 statement.




COMMENT



13. (C) The "Patriots" like many other groups are trying to help
Nigeria find a way out of its current political impasse. However,
despite the claim to be elder statesmen, the "Patriots" are not a
detached, dispassionate group. The October 15 statement was
peppered by political considerations. For a variety of reasons, many
"Patriots" dislike Obasanjo and the October 15 statement reflected
that. Because it was endorsed by some prominent Yoruba figures, it
caused Obasanjo some unexpected damage. However, given the
fluidity of political events now, that damage might not be permanent
as the memory of the statement is eclipsed by the frenzy of other
political events.


14 . (C) On another level, Williams' assertion about a South-South
Presidential candidate and the end to the top three ethnic groups'
dominance seemed surprisingly naive if taken at face value. Clearly,
not all the "Patriots" agreed with this position. Last week, Ohaneze
Ndigbo met with the Northern leadership group, Arewa
Consultative Forum. That meeting produced a public statement
against Obasanjo's second term. We can be almost certain that the
participants also discussed conditions for resurrecting the North-
Southeast political axis that has been successful in the past.
Contrary
to Williams' assertion that the "Patriots" back a South-South
Presidency, the Ohaneze leadership has been carrying the torch for an
Igbo Presidency and it is doubtful that Ohaneze will voluntarily
extinguish that flame.



15. (C) Perhaps Williams has staked out this position in order to
hedge possible Yoruba political losses. Maybe he and others sense
that Obasanjo is a less than an even bet ( a growing belief among
political pundits, even some of Obasanjo's own men). Instead of
backing the wrong horse, some Yorubas may have decided to
champion the idea of a South-South Presidency as the best possible
alternative. If the Igbos were convinced this was a good option, this
plan of a united South would keep national power in the South, thus
preventing the historic North-Southeast alliance that has often
resulted in the Yoruba Southwest being on the losing side of national
elections. Second, a South-South presidency would keep power out of
Igbo hands. For historic reasons, Yorubas and Igbos do not repose
much trust in each other. Yoruba Leader Olufemi Awolowo
undermined the Igbo leader Nnandi Azikiwe's quest for national
power in the late sixties. Since then, political cooperation between
the
two groups has been minimal. Older Yoruba leaders like Williams
probably still fear that the Igbo still bear a grudge. Moreover, the
Yorubas may back the idea of a South-South minority President
because they believe they can influence a South-South incumbent.
The Southern minorities historically have been wary of Igbo
domination, and are more comfortable with the Yorubas If this is
Williams' tack, then his support for a South-South President is not
based on principles of fairness for the ethnic minorities but concern
that the North- Southeast alliance not be repeated to the detriment of
Southwest in the 2003 elections.
JETER