NIGERIA: MOD DANJUMA ON THE OBASANJO-ATIKU-IBB

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 003016

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR C. GURNEY. PLEASE PASS TO AF A/S KASTEINER AND
AMBASSADOR JETER


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/05/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: MOD DANJUMA ON THE OBASANJO-ATIKU-IBB
NEXUS


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: During an October 25 meeting with
Ambassador Jeter, Nigerian Minister of Defense Lieutenant
General (ret.) Theophilus Y. Danjuma discussed the current
state of Nigerian politics. Danjuma spoke at length of the
tense relationship between President Obasanjo, Vice
President Atiku and former military Head of State Ibrahim
Babangida, saying IBB was playing Atiku for a fool as he
worked to drive a wedge between the President and Vice
President. Commenting on National Security Advisor Aliyu
Mohammed's loyalties, Danjuma said President Obasanjo is
aware of the NSA's disloyalty, but he chooses to keep him
close rather than have him publicly join "the other team".
Finally, Danjuma dismissed the so-called "Patriots'" plan
to limit office holders to single five-year terms as
simplistic and unrealistic. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) During an October 25 private MOD office
conversation with Ambassador Jeter, Minister of Defense
Lieutenant General (ret.) Theophilus Y. Danjuma discussed
his views on the relationship between President Obasanjo
and Vice President Atiku and the manipulation of both by
former military Head of State Ibrahim Babangida. According
to Danjuma, IBB has been painstakingly pursuing a strategy
to divide and conquer Obasanjo and Atiku for over a year.
IBB first tried to persuade Obasanjo to dump Atiku by
hinting that releasing the Vice President would ease the
President's "image problem" in the North. After nine
months of failing to convince Obasanjo to eject Atiku, IBB
decided to focus on manipulating Atiku.



3. (C) According to Danjuma, IBB has hoodwinked Atiku, who
now believes he has IBB's support. Noting that IBB once
fired Atiku from his job as head of customs because of
rumored links with "drug barons" and that he considers the
Vice President to be "lazy and corrupt," Danjuma said he
thought Atiku had been blinded by his own ambition.
"Babangida is singing a song he (Atiku) wants to hear."



4. (C) Danjuma asserted that as part of his plan to weaken
Obasanjo, Atiku planted the "Mandela Option" stories in the
Nigerian press leading to calls for the President to step
down after his first term in order to cement the transition
to democracy. Danjuma sees this as playing right into
IBB's hands. If Obasanjo can be convinced not to run,
Atiku would represent an easy opponent for IBB or his
surrogate. If Obasanjo stays in the race, Danjuma said the
notoriously tight-fisted President would need to spend far
more money to insure his victory in the PDP primary.



5. (C) As the conversation turned to the plans and
prospects of National Security Advisor Aliyu Mohammed,
Danjuma said the former general had been campaigning
against Obasanjo for over a year and that Obasanjo was well
aware of Mohammed's transgression. Danjuma noted that
after Obasanjo learned of Aliyu's attendance at a September
meeting where Atiku gave House leaders the green light for
Obasanjo's impeachment, the President called the NSA about
his lack of support. Danjuma characterized Obasanjo as
exceedingly tolerant of Mohammed. He believed Obasanjo had
decided it was better to keep Mohammed close rather than to
fire him and have him publicly side with his opponents.



6. (C) Finally, Danjuma rejected the proposal put forward
by the group of prominent old-guard and predominantly
Southern and Middle Belt politicians known as "The
Patriots" that elected officials serve single five-year
terms. He characterized the group as "senile and
mischievous old men" and stated that their plan was
unrealistic in Nigeria's political environment, as someone
would surely find an excuse to extend the terms further at
the end of the fifth year.
ANDREWS
ANDREWS