Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ABUJA2990
2002-11-01 15:56:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: YORUBA TRADITIONAL RULER SAYS

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002990 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: 10/29/12
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: YORUBA TRADITIONAL RULER SAYS
OBASANJO THE THE ONLY THING HOLDING NIGERIA TOGETHER

Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reason
1.5 (B) and (D).


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002990

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: 10/29/12
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: YORUBA TRADITIONAL RULER SAYS
OBASANJO THE THE ONLY THING HOLDING NIGERIA TOGETHER

Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reason
1.5 (B) and (D).



1. (C) Summary: During an October 22 meeting with
Ambassador Jeter, the Ooni of Ife declared that
Nigeria would disintegrate if President Obasanjo were
not reelected. The most influential Yoruba
traditional ruler, Ooni Sijuwade claimed that the
desire of Northern politicians to control national
politics and the government bursary fueled the current
opposition to Obasanjo. Sijuwade claimed, however,
that many traditional rulers, including the North's
most influential leader, the Emir of Kano, backed
Obasanjo. Despite his incessant legerdemain, former
Head of State Babangida eventually would back
Obasanjo, and VP Atiku would not try to supplant the
President. The claim that failure to reelect Obasanjo
would be Nigeria's death knell raises concern but is
less an objective assessment than an example of the
exaggerated lexicon of Southern Nigerian politics;
yet, Sijuwade's observations are those of an long-
time insider and an accomplished political player.
While inflated for effect, his remarks demonstrate
that regional competition and tensions are
intensifying as 2003 elections approach. End Summary.



2. (U) During an October 20-23 visit to Lagos,
Ambassador Jeter traveled to Ile-Ife, the legendary
home of the Yoruba ethnic group, to officially call on
the Ooni of Ife, the Southwest's most influential
traditional ruler. Ambassador Jeter was accompanied
by his Staff Assistant and PolCouns. Receiving
Ambassador Jeter and party at his shaded poolside
patio and hosting them for a mid-afternoon lunch, Ooni
Sijuwade discussed national politics for the better
part of four hours. The Ooni clearly had prepared for
the visit. Beside his imperial chair was a stack of
letters, newspapers and other documents he repeatedly
referred to during the course of the session in order
to confirm or emphasize a matter he thought important.



3. (C) Straight to the point, Sijuwade declared that
Nigeria risked secession and disintegration if
Obasanjo did not return in 2003. The Ooni revisited
this theme over and over during the lengthy meeting,
at one point exclaiming that "if Obasanjo were not on
seat in 2003, there will not be a Nigeria!" The Ooni

contended that Obasanjo's high integrity was the cause
of his low popularity. The expectations of too many
Nigerian politicians was "to rob" government coffers.
Politicians expected Obasanjo to throw open the doors
to the vault; however, he has frustrated their greed
by standing in the way, Sijuwade contended. Because
of his stand for fiscal probity, Obasanjo was under
intense political heat. Sijuwade claimed that, as
spiritual head of the Yorubas, he had predicted to
Obasanjo a rough reelection campaign after the latter
had announced his reelection bid in April.



4. (C) Sijuwade pointed to the President's tussle
with the National Assembly over the budget as
confirming his assessment of the pervasiveness of
political greed. The Ooni chastised the National
Assembly for trying to force Obasanjo to implement
their highly inflated budget that would have resulted
in a massive deficit. The reason the Legislature's
proposed budget was so massively in the red was that
the Assembly sought an additional 240 billion Naira in
special projects so that each Member could access one
half billion Naira. Because many of these Members
were facing tough reelection battles or were
unelectable, the proposed outlay would help some eke
out victory or constitute a lucrative golden handshake
for others. Sijuwade scoffed that House Speaker Ghali
Na'Abba sponsorship of the impeachment threat was pure
hypocrisy because Na'Abba was a wastrel, guilty of
scores of financial improprieties in funding his and
his crony's spendthrift ways.



5. (C) Making a spirited pitch for USG support for
Obasanjo, Sijuwade claimed most Nigerians were
unfamiliar with the US-style presidential system of
government, but that Obasanjo had brought it to
Nigeria. To most Nigerians, Obasanjo was "regarded as
America," he asserted. (Comment: This reference was
to Obasanjo's tenure as military Head of State from
1976-79. Obasanjo shepherded the 1979 constitution
that introduced Nigeria to the presidential system.
The Ooni may have been guilty of hyperbole by saying
that Obasanjo represented America to most Nigerians;
however, there is an association in the public mind of
Obasanjo with the United States. Many Nigerians
believe Obasanjo is "our man." Moreover, Sijuwade
probably intended his characterization of Obasanjo to
convey to us that, among the major political figures,
Obasanjo is the one who most closely approaches
American ideals of priority and governance. End
comment.)



6. (C) Ambassador Jeter told the Ooni that USG would
neither endorse nor oppose any candidate -- that
decision was the exclusive preserve of the Nigerian
electorate. Sijuwade responded that if the USG did
not back Obasanjo it would be complicit in Nigeria's
dismemberment. "If not Obasanjo, who will rule
Nigeria? From where would he come?," the Ooni asked.



7. (C) Sijuwade insisted the reports of a chasm
separating Obasanjo from former Head of State
Babangida and VP Atiku were untrue. The Ooni
unconvincingly referred to Babangida as Obasanjo's
"good boy" who still looked up to Obasanjo as his
superior as he did when they were in the military a
quarter century ago. Also claiming a close personal
relationship with Babangida, Sijuwade stated he had
met Babangida recently, with Babangida indicating he
preferred Obasanjo to the other prospective
candidates. Sijuwade predicted VP Atiku would not
challenge Obasanjo. Atiku's greatest enemy was
Babangida who would actively block Atiku's run for the
presidency, Sijuwade stressed. In fact, the real
schism was between Atiku and Babangida, with Obasanjo
working assiduously to reconcile the two, according to
Sijuwade. (Comment: This rendition of Obasanjo as
mediating between Atiku and Babangida may have been
credible a year ago; however, the weight of current
information suggests that trust among the three is
minimal and none of the three can act as a referee for
the others. End Comment.)



8. (C) Regarding former Head of State Mohammedu
Buhari, Sijuwade claimed Buhari "might wind up in jail
if he is not careful." This was an allusion to recent
media coverage of an audit uncovering the loss of
millions of dollars during Buhari's tenure as head of
the Petroleum Trust Fund during the Abacha regime.
Moreover, Sijuwade declared that Buhari's candidacy
was doomed because no self- respecting Southerner
would vote for such a regional (Northern) and
religious (Moslem) chauvinist. Sijuwade scoffed at
House Speaker Na'Abba's presidential ambitions,
severely chiding the Speaker for overplaying his hand
by authoring the impeachment threat. Sijuwade said
the Emir of Kano related to him a recent conversation
with Na'Abba. The Speaker confided to the Emir Bayero
that his major gripe was with the President's
frugality. "The President knows I need money," Na'Abba
purportedly told the Emir, who, in turn, admonished
Na'Abba for his venality.



9. (C) Criticism of Na'Abba lead Sijuwade to
criticism of Northern politicians in general. The
Ooni attacked the Northern elite as believing control
of national political power and the country's
pocketbook was their birthright. Since Nigeria was
founded in 1914 by fusing South and North together for
the administrative convenience of the British Colonial
Office, the North has been surviving on resources and
money generated by the South. Northerners erroneously
thought they could manipulate Obasanjo to allow their
continual access to the national treasury. However,
Obasanjo tried to balance the equation by ending
business as usual. Now that access has been denied,
Northern carpetbaggers were angry. Sijuwade
emphasized that Obasanjo's actions were justified.
Business as usual was wrecking the nation and causing
a small pool of the very rich to coexist beside an
expanding reservoir of desperately poor Nigerians.
This trend had to be checked or, otherwise, it would
explode. Only Obasanjo was up to the task of
remedying the inequity by keeping the greedy veteran
hands out of the vault, asserted the Ooni.



10. (C) Because of his reformist policy, Obasanjo was
being served up by professional politicians as a
sacrificial lamb. For example, Sijuwade claimed, the
North feared Obasanjo's policy promoting national
identification cards because it would undermine the
purported numerical superiority upon which the North
bases its claim for political power. Sijuwade posited
Northern politicians were eager to shift the
presidency back to their region so they could have
unfettered access to government coffers once again.



11. (C) The Ooni declared Northern politicians were
making a serious strategic mistake in thinking they
could perpetuate a tight grip on national power. The
South would no longer tolerate Northern dominance.
Sijuwade claimed that Yorubas were prepared to "stand
on their own" and that the Igbos had indicated they
would follow suit if the North tried to reassert
hegemony.



12. (C) Differentiating between Northern traditional
leaders and politicians, Sijuwade claimed close
contact with Emir Bayero of Kano, whom he described as
an Obasanjo supporter. He stated the Emir understood
both the centrifugal implications and the implications
for governmental reform of a power shift to the North
at this time. Sijuwade added that Bayero had recently
apologized to Obasanjo for his role in persuading the
President to release Mohammed Abacha, the son of the
late military leader Sani Abacha. Sijuwade said that
Bayero had realized too late he had been used but
unscrupulous politicians to gain Abacha's release so
that the family would not have to relinquish the 1.2
billion dollars to the Federal Government. Instead ,
those politicians had in mind using a portion of that
ill-gotten money to fund efforts to unseat Obasanjo,
during or before the upcoming presidential race.



13. (C) The Ooni stated that Emir Bayero, the Obi of
Onitsha (the most influential Igbo ruler) and he
conferred recently, with the outcome being supportive
of Obasanjo. Sijuwade said that traditional rulers
were the strongest moderating force in politics today.
Despite the divisive misbehavior and waywardness of
the political class in general, Sijuwade stated that
Nigeria would likely stay united because of the
efforts of traditional leaders. "Traditional rulers
own Nigeria," he concluded.


--------------
COMMENT
--------------



14. (C) Sijuwade's remarks must be viewed through a
decidely Yoruba, Southwestern prism. As spiritual
leader of this ancient group, Sijuwade takes seriously
his ability to divine what will unfold. As a
traditional ruler of a group that generally has sat on
the losing side of contest for national power, he
cannot help but believe national power was destined to
rest with the Yoruba for a sustained period during his
reign as Ooni. After a long dry spell of twenty years
between 1979 and 1999, he understandably believes the
Presidency should stay in the Southwest four more
years. Also, his personal interests are served by an
Obasanjo return to office. With a Yoruba President,
Sijuwade's strong status among the traditional rulers
becomes further enhanced and elevated.



15. (C) Still, Sijuwade has not survived this long by
being just the "spiritual guide" for the Yorubas. He
is an astute politician who does his homework. He
knows there is little downside to supporting Obasanjo
at this time, especially among the Yoruba. There are
no visible challenges to his reign as Ooni and there
is scant chance of the Yoruba rebelling against him
for backing Obasanjo, who ,if not highly popular, is
still one of their own and the only Yoruba to become
Head of State.



16. (C) If Obasanjo wins, Sijuwade's status in the
Southwest will be enhanced which will help him check
the influence of socio-cultural groups like Afenifere.
Moreover, because the Ooni has staked out such a
public position, some Obasanjo opponents would view
his defection as a mortal blow to the President.
Sijuwade knows some of these foes will court him; they
also know that convincing Sijuwade to back off or do
less will come at a high price. While Sijuwade spoke
in near absolutes, there was the sense that he was
staking out a maximalist position from which he will
probe and negotiate as the electoral process unfolds.
(His call for USG to support Obasanjo should be viewed
in this light. What he knows about our position
regarding Obasanjo probably will be a factor the Ooni
will be weigh in determining how far and hard he
pushes for Obasanjo.)



17. (C) The Ooni's warning on secession should not be
taken too seriously. However, it cannot be totally
dismissed. The warning reflects the real and mounting
ethnic and regional tension that accompany the
oncoming election. While Nigeria's disintegration is
unlikely, its political class must exercise extreme
caution to avoid missteps that could further divide a
sometimes already deeply divided nation.


JETER