Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ABUJA2989
2002-11-01 15:53:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: INEC CHAIRMAN DISMISSES CHARGES OF UNDER-

Tags:  PGOV PREL KDEM NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002989 

SIPDIS


NSC FOR J. FRAZIER


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/1/12
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: INEC CHAIRMAN DISMISSES CHARGES OF UNDER-
REGISTRATION AS "LOOSE TALK"


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).


C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002989

SIPDIS


NSC FOR J. FRAZIER


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/1/12
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: INEC CHAIRMAN DISMISSES CHARGES OF UNDER-
REGISTRATION AS "LOOSE TALK"


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: During an October 30 meeting with Chiefs
of Mission from key western and other countries, INEC
Chairman Abel Guobadia discussed INEC's performance during
the recent voter registration and its plans for the spring
general election. Guobadia dismissed allegations of both
significant under-registration and fraudulent multiple
registration, but conceded if evidence of wide spread
problems were found, INEC would extend the voter
registration period. Those who were unable to register
would have to prove their case to INEC before they would be
added to the rolls. Despite worries expressed by the
diplomats, Guobadia was confident INEC's "biometric
profiling" plan would eliminate most multiple registrants.
Finally, Guobadia requested donor assistance to procure
election materials; train election day staff; plan
logistical preparations; and create a radio network to
disseminate election results quickly. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) During an October 30 meeting with Ambassador Jeter,
representatives of other Western Missions including the
British, Australian and Canadian High Commissions, and
envoys of the Burkinabe and Ghanaian governments,
Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) Chairman
Abel Guobadia discussed the September voter registration
exercise and INEC's plans for the spring general election.
After clarifying the USG's desire to assist Nigeria and his
belief that the upcoming election currently makes INEC the
most important institution in Nigeria, Ambassador Jeter
noted there has been widespread criticism of the sub-
standard registration process. Deputy British High
Commissioner Charles Bird further characterized the
registration process as "seriously flawed in terms of
under-registration".



3. (C) Guobadia said he had not seen evidence of under-
registration. No one had come to INEC complaining he could
not register. Guobadia discounted the allegations as being
based more in speculation and rumor than in fact. "It's
all loose talk," he claimed. He stated INEC had
distributed 71 million registration forms for an estimated

voting population of 59.5 million. According to Guobadia,
only 2 million of the forms were left unused after the
registration period. Therefore, he reasoned, "nearly all
eligible persons should have registered," since even if one
accounted for lost or stolen materials and marginal numbers
of multiple registrants, there were more than enough
registration materials for everyone.



4. (C) Bird cautioned that he had witnessed people unable
to register and questioned whether INEC was prepared to
issue a public statement saying under-registration was
minimal. Guobadia deflected Bird's question and reiterated
his prior statement that the small number of leftover
materials has led him to conclude under-registration was
minimal. (COMMENT: Guobadia's defensive statements about
the registration exercise were unfortunate. Nationwide
claims of under-registration undermine his credibility as
an impartial administrator. Moreover, we know that INEC is
having severe problems reconciling the rolls. It was
scheduled to publish the registration lists by September

26. Already more than a month overdue, the list is still
not ready to be published because of the numerous
inaccuracies in the registration process. END COMMENT.)



5. (C) Canadian High Commissioner Howard Strauss mentioned
reports that as many as 10 million people registered more
than once. If true, the multiple registrants account for
the large number of unregistered voters despite the
scarcity of unused forms (NOTE: Additionally, there have
been unconfirmed reports of hoarding of the forms and
registration cards in several areas. The culprits may have
filled in the forms and kept the cards to give to local
partisans. END NOTE). Guobadia said biometric profiling
by state and local governments would eliminate most of the
multiple registrants. Fingerprints taken at the time of
registration would be compiled within "computer-based State
and Local Government Area Preliminary Registers" and then
used to identify those who registered more than once or who
falsely claimed they were unable to register.



6. (C) Guobadia admitted it would not be possible to
complete a nation-wide database at this time, but he did
not think it necessary since he expected incidents of
"inter-state" multiple registrations to be few. INEC does
not plan to release the register for inspection until after
the electronic state and local databases have been
compiled. (COMMENT: Guobadia's reliance on the corrective
properties of the thumb print analysis may be overly
optimistic. It is uncertain whether every state possesses
the computer equipment for such a venture and it is likely
poorly trained registration officials made numerous
mistakes in taking registrants' fingerprints. END
COMMENT.)



7. (C) Ambassador Jeter stressed that the perception of
serious under-registration could undermine legitimacy of
the entire election. He suggested INEC consider an
extended registration period if problems proved wide-
spread. Guobadia said INEC would extend the registration
period, but those who claimed inability to register would
have to prove their claims to INEC. Regardless of any
extension of the registration process, the elections would
take place between March 29 and April 29, 2003 as required
by law. Regarding the registration of new political
parties, Guobadia said if the courts had not settled the
dispute before December 29, then only the six existing
parties would be able to take part in the election.
(COMMENT: Guobadia's remark about the December 29 deadline
is very bureaucratic and shows a lack of appreciation of
the role of the courts. It will be the Supreme Court's
verdict, not INEC's, that will determine if additional
parties will participate. Ultimately, if the Supreme Court
rules that INEC must accept the registration of additional
parties, INEC will have to do so regardless of its
bureaucratic deadlines. END COMMENT.)



8. (C) Guobadia said INEC was doing everything possible to
pressure law enforcement authorities to investigate claims
of registration fraud and theft of registration materials.
He emphasized the existence of severe penalties for
violating election laws, but admitted that INEC, itself,
was dependent upon law enforcement officials to enforce
election law.



9. (C) While Guobadia said he welcomed the participation
of Nigerian civil society groups in the election process,
he did not think it was INEC's responsibility to provide
them with training in election monitoring or assistance.
INEC plans to produce a best practices manual for such
organizations. He also noted that only one group, the
National Committee for Justice, Peace and Development,
assisted INEC during the registration process.



10. (C) On the question of the participation of
international observers in the election, Guobadia said the
Foreign Ministry would issue invitations no later than two
months before the election date. He believed the
invitations would go out well before that deadline.



11. (C) When asked by Ambassador Jeter about INEC's
budget, Guobadia noted that INEC had problems obtaining
funding from the government. 19.5 billion Naira (USD 154
million) to finance the election were included in the
National Assembly's budget, however, only the 7 billion
Naira (USD 55 million) allocated for the registration
process had been released. He felt the GON would release
the remainder of the funds soon, but welcomed any pressure
the USG or any other government could bring to bare on the
matter. Guobadia also noted that public criticism of GON
interference with INEC improved the GON's behavior toward
the commission.



12. (C) Guobadia requested assistance in purchasing
printed materials such as election monitoring manuals and
in arranging training for INEC workers. He said INEC would
welcome any assistance in transporting materials and
workers throughout the country and in providing
communications equipment for INEC personnel. INEC is also
interested in creating a radio network to disseminate
election results quickly.



13. (C) COMMENT: Guobadia's performance was predictable
although unsatisfactory in many respects. We were
disappointed that he was less than forthcoming about the
problems with voter registration, but sense that he might
speak more openly in a more intimate setting (We will seek
a private meeting with INEC to reinforce our concerns about
voter registration.). Public concern regarding the
registration will not go away simply because Guobadia wants
it to. Guobadia and INEC have had a slight respite from
intense public scrutiny due to the impeachment attempt on
President Obasanjo. But as the impeachment drama slowly
fades, attention will return to INEC. INEC can repair some
of the damage done to its credibility by demonstrating that
it is attempting to repair the defective registration
exercise. The most visible fix would be to extend voter
registration. By reopening the process and taking other
corrective measures, INEC can improve the voter list while
helping to restore public confidence.



14. C) While INEC is behind the curve and has been marred
by laconic performance, it is not irredeemable. However,
the international community must lend a helping hand for
INEC to reach an acceptable level of performance. The
international community will have to concentrate sustained
pressure on INEC, the Presidency, and the National Assembly
to makes sure INEC does an adequate job. Apart from
correcting flaws in the registration, the next order of
business may be to push the Presidency and the National
Assembly to fund INEC properly. We are preparing to do
that. END COMMENT.
JETER