NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR'S COMMENTS ON CIA 533007

S E C R E T ABUJA 002988

SIPDIS


NOFORN


FROM AMBASSADOR JETER


E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/01/2012 DERIVATIVE
TAGS: PGOV ECON
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: AMBASSADOR'S COMMENTS ON CIA 533007


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR. HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASONS 1.5
(D)


REF: CIA 533007



1. (S/NF) I question the usefulness of reftel's content.
If former Head of State Babangida made the remarks, his
comments were almost certainly self-serving and perhaps
consciously intended to undermine Obasanjo's status in
Western capitals. President Obasanjo has his shortcomings
and there is the unfortunate possibility that a serious
misstep might occur that would result in Nigeria's use of
military force in Bakassi. However, most indications are
that Nigeria hopes to maintain the status quo, and avoid
the use of force while engaging in bilateral discussion
with Cameroon. Given Nigeria's position thus far, I
sincerely doubt that Obasanjo would use "war" as a means to
keep himself in power.



2. (S/NF) However, given the active political
machinations afoot in Nigeria, intelligence sources
sometimes need to be carefully scrutinized to determine
their agendas. In this milieu, uncritical reporting of
self-interested, biased statements of principal political
actors will not always be useful reporting. Misinformation
about political opponents will abound. Reftel may also be
consistent with IBB's reputation for manipulative activity.
We should be on guard for this.



3. (S/NF) I have come to know President Obasanjo fairly
well. He has many weaknesses, and he has failed to meet
expectations; however, I find it hard to believe that he
has fallen as low as Babangida would have us believe.
JETER