NIGERIA: A POLITICAL PARTY PRIMER

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002883

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: A POLITICAL PARTY PRIMER

REF: A. ABUJA 2202

B. ABUJA 2862


Classified by DCM Timothy D. Andrews. Reasons: 1.5 (B & D).



1. (C) INTRODUCTION: With the registration of three new
political parties, the political landscape for Nigeria's
2003 election cycle now includes six political parties:
the ruling People's Democratic Party (PDP),the Alliance
for Democracy (AD),the All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP),
the National Democratic Party (NDP),the All People's Grand
Alliance (APGA),United Nigerian People's Party (UNPP). By
definition, each party has a national character and exists
under guidelines that define how many offices they must
maintain throughout the country. Given President
Obasanjo's perceived electoral weakness, it is too early to
predict what the scene may look like as elections approach,
but the following snapshot provides the current status of
each. END INTRODUCTION.


People's Democratic Party (PDP)
--------------



2. (C) The ruling PDP is blessed with some of the
strongest personalities in the country, including the
incumbent President Olusegun Obasanjo. However, this
blessing is also its curse. The PDP is formed from a core
group of supporters of the late Shehu Yar'adua and led by
current Vice-president Atiku Abubakar, but the party is
augmented by numerous locally powerful politicians who
agreed to support the party in the previous round of
elections. This marriage of convenience, while effective
in 1999, has grown strained. There just are not enough
political "goods" for all the potentates in the party. The
President embodies incumbency's advantages, but he has very
little personal support within the party. Vice President
Atiku Abubakar, on the other hand, is a highly proficient
politician who has spent his time building relationships at
home while his boss traveled the world. The rift between
Obasanjo and Atiku (ref B) is almost public and probably
irreparable. An outright public break between the two men
would weaken each and could cause many of the local
strongmen to flee to other parties with little risk to
their own local political futures.


Alliance for Democracy (AD)
--------------



3. (C) The AD, the second of the three parties, while
maintaining a presence nationwide, is a party of Southwest
Nigeria (Yorubaland). As such, the AD remains active in
national politics, but has little hope of fielding a
presidential candidate. For now, the AD appears content to
consolidate its hold on the Southwest while expanding into
neighboring areas where possible. According to some party
leaders, the AD hopes to pick up a few Senate and House
seats in the South-South and the Middle Belt areas. One
has said that the party would be competitive for statewide
offices in Kwara, Plateau and Benue states in the coming
elections. The desire of the AD politicians is to maintain
a distinct Yoruba character while attracting some minority
support from these mixed regions.


All Nigeria People's Party (ANPP)
--------------



4. (C) The ANPP changed its name from APP in anticipation
of a merger with the UNPP, which subsequently was aborted.
The ANPP has attracted a diverse list of supporters from
throughout the nation. This makes for strange bedfellows.
One announced presidential candidate, former military
leader Mohammadu Buhari, appeals to the Northern masses but
is anathema to the ANPP's core backers, Northern elites.
It is making efforts to attract more support in the South-
South and Southeast in order to continue Northern influence
in Nigeria's political process. Its prospects for gaining
the presidency depend largely on the travails of the PDP
and Obasanjo's decisions on self-succession.


National Democratic Party (NDP)
--------------



5. (C) The NDP was allegedly registered with the support
of former military leader Ibrahim Babangida (IBB). The NDP
has a scattering of support among youth, particularly in
the North but will wield little influence in the upcoming
elections if it cannot attract a big name candidate. The
clear preference of the party's leadership and grassroots
supporters is to convince IBB himself to become the party's
standard bearer. But IBB's current intentions are unclear,
and he has other vehicles that might prove more roadworthy.


All People's Grand Alliance (APGA)
--------------



6. (C) The APGA, also midwifed by IBB, has also met with
little success in attracting nationwide support. Its hope
seems to be to evolve into the party of choice for the Igbo
community of the Southeast. While it has had some success
in attracting Igbo politicians, the Igbo themselves are
split on what their role should be in the elections and
what strategy to pursue. Some are content to play second
fiddle to a Northern standard-bearer while others argue
that the time has come for the Igbo to present a serious
Presidential candidate of their own. If the APGA can help
consolidate Igbo views, it might evolve into a Southeastern
version of the AD and become the powerbroker for the
Southeast. If not, the party may wither on the vine.


United Nigerian People's Party (UNPP)
--------------



7. (C) The UNPP, the third party reportedly formed with
IBB's support, has since turned on its reported benefactor
over alleged broken promises. While enjoying some success
in gaining supporters outside the North, it has not been
able to position itself as an alternative to the original
three parties and appears in no danger of doing so soon.



8. (C) COMMENT: While the political situation remains
very fluid, some lines are discernible. The PDP and the
ANPP remain the two parties to beat in national elections,
with the AD solid in its home base. If the PDP cannot
resolve its internal differences, its strongest supporters
will have no reason to remain loyal and can jump to one of
the other parties with relative impunity. The ANPP is
best-positioned to capitalize on the disarray within the
ruling party and hopes to pick up significant support in
the upcoming weeks as succession issues are being sorted
out. As always, personalities matter more than parties in
the crunch of an election campaign. Until fence-sitters
and aisle-crossers settle down, it will remain impossible
to estimate how the parties will fare in legislative and
gubernatorial elections.
JETER