NIGERIA: PDP FAILS TO RESOLVE INTERNAL CRISIS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002882

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/20/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: PDP FAILS TO RESOLVE INTERNAL CRISIS

REF: ABUJA 2862


Classified by DCM Timothy Andrews. Reasons 1.5 (B & D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: PDP officials hoped that the October 14
meeting between the President and PDP legislators and
governors would effectuate a rapprochement within the
divided party. The session did not meet these
expectations. Insiders told us that the meeting was
acrimonious and a less-than-adequate "apology" by Obasanjo
did not satisfy the National Assembly members. Vice-
president Atiku was notably absent from the meeting. In
the end, the only achievement was the appointment of
another committee to negotiate with both sides in the
ongoing crisis. Failure to resolve the issue only delays
much anticipated decisions by Obasanjo and the PDP which
could make succession scenarios clearer. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) The PDP meeting on Monday October 14 was well
attended, with PDP legislators, governors, dozens of party
members and the President all participating. Conspicuously
absent was Vice President Atiku Abubakar. A PDP insider
told Poloff that Atiku absented himself to avoid expected
questions about the timing of party primaries. While
Obasanjo preferred holding the Presidential primary first,
Atiku had hinted that his preference to hold the
Presidential primary last. The insider said that
Obasanjo's supporters had planned to pin Atiku down on the
issue and force Atiku's hand on his often-bruited
presidential aspirations. According to one of the
attendees, the atmosphere was "acrimonious." There was
more recrimination than reconciliation.



3. (C) National Party Chairman Audu Ogbeh stressed, as he
did in an earlier meeting with AF/W Director Michael
Arietti that day, that the PDP's electoral chances at all
levels of elections in 2003 would be greatly diminished if
the warring party members did not reunite. In spite of
Ogbeh's urgings, House Speaker Ghali Na'Abba criticized
Obasanjo for supporting the Independent Corrupt Practices
Commission's (ICPC) investigation against him. Na'abba
reportedly told the President, "I may have done some things
which the ICPC could find fault with," but said that
Obasanjo should be cautious because "similar accusations
could be launched against many close to the Presidency as
well."



4. (C) Discussing the impeachment efforts, several PDP
members said the list of 32 offenses allegedly committed by
Obasanjo were not impeachable offenses. Responding to these
comments, Na'Abba assented to call a meeting of the PDP
Assembly caucus to discuss withdrawing the impeachment
threat. However, according to a PDP official, only Na'Abba
and Deputy Speaker Chibudom Nwuche showed up for the
caucus.



5. (C) Faced with mounting opposition, Obasanjo offered
an apology of sorts. According to press reports, Obasanjo
said he was not seeking to impeach Na'Abba and Senate
President Anyim Pius Anyim and urged everyone to "open
lines of communications" in an effort to resolve the
party's internal conflicts. An attendee at the meeting
commented to Poloff that Obasanjo's statement, rather than
giving the apology demanded by the Legislative Branch, was
diplomatic but inadequate. Obasanjo reiterated his
position that he had really done nothing impeachable, but
allowed mistakes could have been made.



6. (C) After all that was said among the principals who
attended, there was no breakthrough. Carefully, the
attendees agreed to appoint a 15-member committee to
discuss the findings of the previously constituted 10-
member panel on ways to resolve the crisis. No timetable
was set for these deliberations, but the House and Senate
members reportedly agreed to put impeachment efforts on
hold until after the new committee prepared its report.
According to another source, Obasanjo is finally realizing
that he may have some trouble with his image, but was still
being misled by Minister of Works and Housing Tony Anenih,
who "swears on his Bible to Obasanjo that he can deliver
reelection without making any concessions."



7. (C) Meanwhile, Obasanjo has taken no overt steps to
meet the demands of Atiku and his key Northern backers from
1999 (reftel). Atiku told us privately that he had little
hope that tangible progress was in the offing and that he
had low expectations for this latest reconciliation
committee.



8. (U) Briefing the press after the meeting, Ogbeh said
that the meeting was "one of the best the party has held
since he became chairman."



9. (C) COMMENT: This meeting had been referred to by
many PDP insiders as a "make or break" meeting. Falling
short, the result does not strengthen optimism that the PDP
can work out its internal differences and adopt a winning
strategy for the upcoming round of elections. By ignoring
or delaying the difficult issues underlying the PDP's rift,
scenarios for party conventions, elections and presidential
succession remain as murky as ever.
JETER