NIGERIA: BIWEEKLY POLITICAL UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002838

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BIWEEKLY POLITICAL UPDATE


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (B &
D).



1. (U) This biweekly update for political events in
Nigeria includes items of interest from recent weeks.
Topics covered in this edition include:


-- Voter Registration
-- Political Assassinations
-- Electoral Bill Override
-- Grand Summit of Politicians
-- Miss World Postponed
-- House Attempts Takeover of Enugu State Assembly


VOTER REGISTRATION
--------------



2. (C) Three weeks after the official close of the voters
registration exercise, the Independent Nigerian Electoral
Commission (INEC) has yet to address inadequacies in the
widely-criticized process. INEC has apparently missed its
own September 26 deadline for posting the initial voter
lists at each of more than 120,000 registration sites for
examination and correction. Political parties and the GON
continue to criticize the exercise, but INEC has not
revealed whether it plans to salvage its results or set a
timetable for completing the process.


POLITICAL ASSASSINATION ATTEMPT
--------------



3. (U) In ongoing developments of political violence,
Former Plateau State Minister of Sports Damishi Sango
alleged that a plot to assassinate him had been uncovered
in Plateau State. He based his allegations on threatening
phone calls which he received giving details of his
movements and activities. Damishi claims that the callers
said they had been hired by his political opponents to
assassinate him either at his residence or on the highway.
The case has been handed over to the Plateau Inspector
General of Police and to the State Security Service.



4. (C) COMMENT: Sango is the Alliance for Democracy (AD)
candidate for governor in Plateau State, one of the states
in which the AD, traditionally limited to predominately
southwest Yoruba areas of the country, is looking to expand
its influence. End Comment.



5. (U) Several other politicians, including Abia Governor
Orji Kalu, Igbo leader Nduku Irabor, and Oyo Governor Lam
Adesina, also claim to be the targets of similar threats.
Irabor says that his motorcade was attacked during the
celebration of Igbo Day, September 29, and Adesina claims
that one of his security men was paid to assassinate him.


ELECTORAL BILL OVERRIDE
--------------



6. (U) The House of Representatives overrode President
Olusegun Obasanjo's veto of the 2002 Electoral Bill on
September 25 by a vote of 191-13. According to media
reports, Representatives not voting in favor of the
override were advised to stay out of the Assembly.
Nigeria's Constitution provides that a quorum of the
Assembly is required to convene a session and a two-thirds
vote is necessary to override a veto. The House of
Representatives interpreted this as two-thirds of the
quorum in attendance. At the same session, Anambra
Representative Celestine Ughanze, pointing to INEC's
shortcomings in the registration of voters and its Chairman
Dr. Abel Guobadia's comment that holding all elections on
one day was impossible, said that Guobadia was not fit to
continue as INEC's leader and called for his resignation.



7. (U) On September 27, the Senate joined the Lower House
in overriding the President's veto of the 2002 Electoral
Bill. The Senate voted 48-3 to override the veto while
four Senators abstained. A counter-motion to stall the vote
was defeated. Those against the override measure claimed
the move was both unnecessary and illegal.



8. (C) COMMENT: Observers question the legality of both
votes and provisions of the bill have not yet been
implemented. Sequencing of the elections is a hotly
contested political issue. That could determine electoral
outcomes. The Presidency prefers Presidential elections
first, with others to follow, hoping for a coattail effect
for the PDP. The National Assembly advocates elections on
the same day, hoping to limit Presidential influence. End
Comment.


GRAND SUMMIT OF POLITICIANS
--------------



9. (U) The October 9 issue of "The Guardian" newspaper
announced that 106 prominent politicians were convening a
"Grand Summit" to be held on October 29. (COMMENT: The
list appears to be mostly politicians outside of Obasanjo's
shrinking camp of supporters. End Comment.) The purpose
of the meeting was to find ways to "save Nigeria's young
democracy." According to the report, Lagos' Governor Bola
Tinubu is to convene the summit. At an October 10 meeting,
Folurunsho Folarin-Coker, Personal Assistant to the
Governor, told Lagos CG and P/E Officers that he knew
nothing about the summit. Folarin-Coker said that the
announcement appeared to be an effort to get President
Olusegun Obasanjo to call a sovereign national conference.
For years, Yoruba politicians, supported by some non-
Yorubas, have been calling for a conference to settle
crucial questions regarding amendment of the 1999
Constitution, allocation of income/revenues from oil and
gas production, etc. Folarin-Coker said that, if a summit
takes place, it will be important to invite the diplomatic
community to attend and observe in order to guarantee the
credibility of any outcome.



10. (C) COMMENT: While it is unclear whether this
meeting will hold as announced, October 29 is also the
tentative date bruited for the AD's National Party
Convention. Some activity is underway to prepare for an AD
convention, but many politicians think that the key to a
successful electoral strategy lies in not being the first
to hold a convention. End Comment.


MISS WORLD POSTPONED
--------------



11. (U) Organizers of the Miss World beauty pageant
announced on October 4 that they had postponed the event
for one week. The controversy surrounding the staging of
the pageant in Nigeria continues with commentary from
Nigeria's conservative northern region complaining that
hosting the pageant is not in keeping with Islamic
traditions and several contestants refusing to participate
due to the sentencing to death by stoning of Amina Lawal,
an unwed mother. According to the organizers, the change
was necessary to avoid holding the event during the month
of Ramadan. The pageant is now scheduled to take place
December 7.


HOUSE ATTEMPTS TAKEOVER OF ENUGU STATE ASSEMBLY
-------------- --



12. (U) On October 3, the House of Representatives
adopted a motion, sponsored by Enugu Representative Anayo
Ede, to give the National Assembly the power to legislate
for Enugu State, where two different groups of state
legislators, one supporting Senator (and ex-Governor) Jim
Nwobodo and the other supporting current Governor Chimaroke
Nnamani, are at loggerheads over who represents the state.
In September, members of one of the factions dismissed the
Assembly Speaker, seized his mace -- the symbol of
parliamentary authority -- and moved to Abuja. They
attempted to hold a parliamentary session in the capital,
but were halted by police.



13. (U) On October 8, Nwobodo sponsored a motion in the
Senate rejecting the move by the House. According to the
press, this motion was adopted unanimously by the Senate.
In addition to Nwobodo's self-interest, the move to take
power from the state legislature, while permitted by the
Constitution in certain circumstances, raised questions
among the legislators about what constituted a crisis and
whether the differences between the two factions could be
ironed out in a different manner.
JETER