NIGERIA: ABACHA FAMILY'S TIGHT GRIP ON LOOT

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002837

SIPDIS


E.O.: DECL: 10/11/12
TAGS: EFIN ECON PGOV PINS NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ABACHA FAMILY'S TIGHT GRIP ON LOOT


REF: A) ABUJA 01028 B) ABUJA 02276 (C) ABUJA 02767


CLASSIFIED BY AMB. HOWARD F. JETER FOR REASON 1.5 (B).



1. (C) Summary: Chances are fleeting that President
Obasanjo will see USD 1.2 billion in stolen Abacha
loot. Under pressure from Northern political leaders,
Obasanjo released late military leader Sani Abacha's
son Mohammed from prison September 24. With Mohammed's
release, Obasanjo surrendered his best leverage over
the Abacha family. Obasanjo, who hoped for both
political and federal budgetary benefits from the
purported "Mohammed's release for USD 1.2 billion"
exchange, may now end up empty-handed. With Mohammed's
release, the Abachas will likely use some of the
purloined funds to finance Obasanjo's political
enemies. This would be akin to an insurance policy
against Obasanjo's recouping the entire USD 1.2
billion. If Obasanjo is defeated in his reelection
bid, the Abachas can be fairly certain that the
election victors will not pursue them, and definitely
not with the alacrity of Obasanjo. End Summary.


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Obasanjo's Gamble
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2. (U) After almost three years of incarceration, Sani
Abacha's eldest son Mohammed was released to a hero's
welcome (by almost exclusively Northern well-wishers)
on September 24. His release resulted from the public
agitation of many of Obasanjo's Northern political
foes, led by House Speaker Ghali Na'Abba.





3. (C) The private intervention of other Northern
leaders such as Emir Bayero of Kano and the Kano State
Governor Kwankwaso, an Obasanjo ally, were also
crucial. In effect, Obasanjo's political foes had
successfully turned Mohammed's detention into a
political rallying point in the North. Mohammed
symbolized Obasanjo's and the South's attempted
"subjugation" of the North. With Mohammed turning
into a martyr in the North, Obasanjo's few allies in
the region came under heat to pressure the President
to give Mohammed his freedom. (Comment: That the
agitation for Mohammed's release came now was not
coincidental. Believing Obasanjo was on the ropes
because of the impeachment attempt, his foes did not
want him to score a political or budgetary benefit by
getting his hands on the Abacha trove. Adding insult
to Obasanjo's injury, The Abachas apparently are
pursuing a lawsuit to thwart Obasanjo's attempt to
freeze their foreign bank accounts. End Comment.)



4. (SBU) (Note: As part of an earlier deal to release
Mohammed, the Abacha family agreed to return USD 1.2
billion taken during Sani'Abacha's regime. The GON
also agreed to dismiss the murder charges against
Mohammed for the assassination of Kudirat Abiola.
When the murder charges were dismissed, the GON kept
Mohammed in detention because the family did not hand
over the USD 1.2 billion. End Note)



5. (C) Since Mohammed's release, the Abacha mansion in
Kano has received an endless stream of visitors. Most
have been politicians seeking publicity and many no
doubt rushed there hoping to get their eager fingers
on some Abacha loot. Some have even urged Mohammed to
run for office. While Mohammed probably will demur,
the family will likely channel money to one of the
anti-Obasanjo parties. In that former head of state
Babangida supports the UNPP and NDP, chances are the
Abachas will direct their support to the ANPP, and
they may end up supporting its most salient candidate,
former military ruler Mohammadu Buhari, another
popular figure in Kano. However, House Speaker Ghali
Na'Abba has his eyes on the presidency and his remote
dark horse chance in the PDP can be boosted by an
injection of funds.


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Comment: Abachas Play for Time
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6. (C) It looks like Obasanjo has been finessed by the
Abacha family and their allies. Due to pressure from
Northern politicians, Obasanjo released Mohammed,
giving up the only real leverage he had to get the
funds. In exchange, the Abacha clan gave him promises
of questionable legal enforceability. Additionally,
it would be politically awkward for Obasanjo to
publicly acknowledge that all he had in hand was an
agreement but no money.



7. (C) From the Abacha perspective, there is no
incentive to hand Obasanjo USD 1.2 billion. Obasanjo
is an embattled president facing a serious impeachment
threat. Moreover, his term is up in several months
and people are telling the Abachas that Obasanjo will
not be re-elected. Thus the Abachas' interests are
better served by temporizing with Obasanjo while using
a portion of the money to fund his opposition to
better ensure Obasanjo's defeat. Given Nigeria's
monetized politics, a portion of the USD 1.2 billion
would make the Abacha family major stakeholders in the
upcoming elections. This would be an ironic,
unfortunate twist of fate from 1998 when Sani Abacha's
death placed the family in disrepute and opened the
door to democratic elections that brought Obasanjo to
office. End Comment
JETER