NIGERIA: BIWEEKLY POLITICAL UPDATE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002767

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/06/2012
TAGS: PGOV PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: BIWEEKLY POLITICAL UPDATE

Classified by DCM Timothy D. Andrews. Reasons 1.5 (B & D).



1. (U) This biweekly update for political events in
Nigeria includes items of interest from recent weeks.
Topics covered in this edition include:


-- Political Assassinations
-- House Speaker Faces Corrupt Practices Commission
-- Release of Mohammed Abacha
-- National Assembly Proposal for Term Limits


POLITICAL ASSASSINATIONS
--------------



2. (U) A series of assassinations and unsuccessful
attempts on the lives of politicians in Nigeria has
occurred over the past few weeks. In Kogi State, the Kwara
State Chairman of the ruling Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
Mr. Ahman Ahmed Patigi was ambushed by unidentified gunmen
and killed on his way to Abuja at the end of August. The
gunmen reportedly forced his car to stop and opened fire on
the vehicle, killing Patigi and a police aide and injuring
another passenger in the vehicle. One of his predecessors
as state party chairman was killed in a traffic accident
last year, and another recently switched to the All
Nigerian People's Party.



3. (U) Barnabus Igwe, a high-profile attorney and critic
of vigilante squads, and his wife were ambushed and killed
in Onitsha, Anambra state on September 1. According to
reports, Igwe had received death threats after his public
criticism of the Anambra State Government's poor
performance and Governor Chinwoke Mbadinuju's funding of a
vigilante group known as the Bakassi Boys, who some suspect
were involved in the murders.



4. (U) Delta State House of Representatives member Chief
Nduka Irabor and his wife escaped death two weeks ago when
a gunman scaled the roof of his residence and fired shots
into the couple's bedroom as they slept. In Ibadan, Oyo
State, Senator Lekan Balogun escaped death when two
assailants gained entry to his bedroom. Balogun's security
detail killed one of the assailants while the second,
injured in the gunfire, escaped.



5. (U) In Kano, the National Vice-chairman of the United
Nigeria People's Party (UNPP) Alhaji Isiyaku Mohammed was
not as lucky as men broke into the bedroom of his home and
executed him in front of his family. A family friend said
that the assassins turned down offers of money to spare his
life. Mohammed was often identified as an ally of IBB.


HOUSE SPEAKER NA'ABBA IN CORRUPT PRACTICES INVESTIGATION
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6. (U) The Independent Corrupt Practices and Other
Related Offences Commission (ICPC) announced an
investigation into Speaker of the House Ghali Umar Na'Abba
as a response to a petition from another House member
earlier this month. ICPC Assistant Director Mr. Kalu Otisi
announced that "there exists sufficient reasons" to
investigate the Speaker. Na'Abba, in an effort to avoid
the investigation, petitioned the Federal High Court to
force the ICPC to abandon its investigation, claiming it
was an "executive branch attempt to intimidate him." His
challenge is based on a question of the constitutionality
of the ICPC Act of 2000 and whether the Commission is
empowered to investigate actions predating its
establishment in 2000.



7. (C) The court ruled against Na'Abba on September 23,
allowing the investigation to proceed. Several members of
the House told PolOff that the ruling was troublesome for
two reasons. Not only did it set the precedent for
investigating sitting legislators for corruption, possibly
at the behest of the President, but it also possibly set
the stage for selecting a third Speaker only a few months
before the next round of legislative elections, they said.
The Court adjourned the case until October 15, when it is
set to rule on corollary issues raised by Na'Abba.


Mohammed Abacha Released (Again)
--------------



8. (U) Mohammed Abacha returned to his home in Kano on
September 24 after a group of Northern leaders successfully
intervened with President Obasanjo. Abacha had been
cleared of charges related to the murder of Kudirat Abiola
in July, but still faced 111 charges related to financial
improprieties. The Abuja High Court had ordered Abacha
released on bail on September 19, but he was immediately
re-arrested for questioning by security officials.



9. (U) A line of supporters, including the Emir and
Governor of Kano, Speaker of the House Ghali Na'Abba, and a
who's who of northern politicians, traditional leaders and
businessmen are said to have negotiated Abacha's release
from his latest detention. According to the press, Abacha
agreed again to return a large portion of the money his
father Sani Abacha was alleged to have stolen during his
regime. The terms of release also call for Abacha's
restriction to Kano and monitoring by security services of
his activities. In public statements, Abacha continues to
deny any agreement to return money to the Nigerian
treasury, while the Kano State Government stated that the
conditions of his release did, in fact, include the
agreement that the family would return approximately one
billion dollars to Nigeria.



10. (C) COMMENT: The decision to release Abacha from
detention was controversial within the GON. We believe
that President Obasanjo, seeking to defuse the impeachment
crisis, wanted to make the growing issue of the propriety
of Abacha's detention go away. Even outside of Abacha's
Kano hometown, questions about the GON's respect for court
rulings were starting to be raised. Abacha, according to
some who visited him in detention over the past two years,
steadfastly maintained that the GON could convict him of no
offense and was unwilling to negotiate. Having released
Abacha, the GON must now try to collect money from him and
his family. The threat of re-arrest will hang over the
former dictator's eldest surviving son until resolution of
that issues is achieved. END COMMENT.


National Assembly: Term Limits and Rotational Presidency
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11. (U) The Joint National Assembly Committee on the
Review of the 1999 Constitution has returned several
suggestions to the Legislature for modifying the much-
criticized Constitution. Among the provisions it proposes
is a plan to change the presidential term to one five-year
term and to ensure that the presidency rotates among the
six geo-political zones of Nigeria. According to some
representatives, if they succeed in modifying the
Constitution before the end of this Legislative session,
the modifications would become retroactive, i.e., binding
on current elected officials, effectively barring Obasanjo
from a second term.
JETER