NIGERIA: FORMER HEAD OF STATE BUHARI--PRESIDENTIAL

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002712

SIPDIS


LONDON FOR GURNEY
PARIS FOR NEARY


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/20/2012
TAGS: PGOV SOCI KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: FORMER HEAD OF STATE BUHARI--PRESIDENTIAL
CANDIDATE OR NORTHERN POLITICAL SPOILER?


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASONS 1.5 (B) AND
(D).



1. (C) Summary: Disaffection with President Obasanjo has
placed three words into the lexicon of Northern politicians:
"Northern Consensus Candidate." One of the bruited names is
Mohammadu Buhari, former military Head of State from 1983 to

1985. Known as an honest, highly disciplined, hard-working,
anti-corruption crusader, Buhari's declared intention to seek
the ANPP presidential nomination has been well received at
grassroots levels in the North. This grassroots popularity
has not gone unnoticed; however, Buhari lacks a key
ingredient for success--elite backing to complement his
significant grassroots appeal. On September 6, national media
reported that Buhari wrote all former Heads of State, seeking
their advice and support. The purpose of the Buhari letter
was not entirely clear, but appears an attempt to elicit
elite support.


2.(C) Summary Continued. By throwing his hat into the ring,
Buhari has added a new dimension to the presidential race and
has already caused strategy adjustments in other political
camps. Although Buhari's Northern popular appeal is
significant, he may not play well in the South and Christian
Middle Belt because he is perceived as an Islamic
fundamentalist. This perception, combined with his lack of
elite patronage could stop Buhari from becoming a major,
national contender and might relegate him to the role of
spoiler, a regional favorite son. End Summary.





3. (C) Like President Obasanjo before the 1999 election,
General Buhari's political experience is limited to that of
military Head of State. Buhari came to power as a result of
a 1983 New Year's Eve coup against the democratically elected
Shehu Shagari. The eviction of Shagari came as a welcome
relief as did Buhari's promise to root out corruption. That
relief, however, was short-lived as Nigerians watched
despairingly as the Buhari regime's promises to revive the
economy and wipe out rampant corruption withered during 20
months of heavy-handed, largely ineffective rule.


4.(C) In May 1984, Buhari ordered the brutal expulsion of
700,000 illegal immigrants from neighboring African states,
jailed hundreds of political opponents and muzzled a once
aggressive press. His loyalty to the military also came into
question as he dismissed 30,000 soldiers as a cost-cutting
measure. Buhari also soured Nigeria's relations with
Britain, when he was accused of masterminding a clumsy and
unsuccessful attempt in July 1984 to kidnap President
Shagari's brother-in-law, former Transport Minister Umaru
Dikko. Moreover, Buhari undermined traditional rulers
throughout Nigeria, slashing their benefits and questioning
their authority. Still, many of these moves resonated well
with the common man. Now, economic hard times and the
perception of avaricious politicians have caused many people
in the North to remember Buhari's efforts nostalgically and
see him as the man of the moment who can extirpate the
corrupt, machiavellian elitism that still characterizes
Nigerian politics.


5.(C) Despite accusations of heavy-handedness, supporters
praise Buhari's former prosecution of corrupt public
officials, governors, Ministers and others. Buhari
supporters also contend he performed well as chairman of the
now defunct Petroleum Trust Fund (PTF). In fact, the PTF did
accelerate road construction, and subsidized agricultural
equipment and pharmaceuticals. Schools and water works were
also rehabilitated; some claim that the PTF performed better
than most Ministries. However, detractors claim the PTF did
disproportionately more for the Northwest than any other
region, and that the South, in particular, was practically
ignored.



6. (C) As if he had not alienated enough people during his
previous tenure as Head of State, Buhari continues to trod on
sensitive toes in his current quest for the presidency. Due
to indelicate public statements, he has been accused
religious bigotry. Last year, Buhari reportedly encouraged
Muslims to vote only for a Muslim President. These reports
caused a swift reaction in all sectors of Nigerian society,
particularly from the Christian clergy. Buhari has been
accused of "playing the religion card" and stirring up
tensions. Buhari compounded his political gaffe by waiting
two months before issuing a clarifying statement. According
to Buhari, his call was not for exclusive voting along
religious lines, rather an appeal to conscience.



7. (C) Buhari's current attempts to gain support from the
Southeast have also been unrefined. After calling on the
Southeast to unite with the North, Buhari stoked ire in the
eastern region by tutoring Igbo politicians not to follow the
path set by previous generations of Igbo politicians he
described as mercenaries to the highest bidder. (Comment:
While there may be a grain of truth in his remarks, it was
grossly impolitic and politically naive for Buhari, as a
visiting Northerner and supplicant for votes, to abuse and
embarrass his Igbo hosts. This episode demonstrates Buhari's
penchant for divisiveness in Nigerian politics, at the very
moment when Nigeria needs a leader to unify the nation. End
Comment.)



8. (C) Buhari also stirred controversy last August when he
appeared as the special guest of honor at the first yearly
National Convention of the Supreme Council for Shari'a in
Nigeria (SCSN). There, he urged Muslims to establish Shari'a
in all 36 states, concluding the Islamic legal code had
restored sanity in the states where it had been enacted.


9.(C) The effect of Buhari's most recent attempt at
politicking by writing to former Heads of State is likely to
fall flat as well. Enumerating the problems and shortcomings
of the current government, Buhari explained that the need for
quality national leadership compelled his entrance into
politics. He wrote the former leaders out of respect, he
claimed, and sought their assistance and advice.





10. (C) One of those former Heads of State was Ibrahim
Babangida. A major factor determining Buhari's fate will be
his relationship with Babangida (IBB). Taking over from
Buhari in a bloodless coup in 1985, Babangida, declared in
his first address Buhari was "too rigid and uncompromising."
Eventually Buhari was jailed by IBB, and not even allowed to
attend his mother's funeral. Although the press runs
frequent speculation about a Babangida-Buhari reconciliation
and a possible anti-Obasanjo alliance, the chemistry between
the two is volatile; most insiders believe they are eternal
enemies. More importantly, IBB probably is more wary of
Buhari than of any other potential candidate. Babangida would
much rather see Obasanjo return than deal with Buhari in the
driver's seat. IBB rightly senses that he likely would be one
of the first victims of Buhari's vindictive wrath should
Buhari capture Aso Rock. Even Buhari's own words--"I forgive
him, but I can never forget,"--indicate that IBB has reason
to fear a Buhari Presidency. Consequently, IBB is probably
working actively to scuttle Buhari's chance of winning the
ANPP nomination; the stark truth for Buhari is that Babangida
is equally adept at being a "kingbreaker" as he is a
kingmaker. A Buhari presidency is Babangida's worst
nightmare and IBB will do anything he can to stop it.





11. (U) Buhari's run for President has altered Nigeria's
political landscape. Recent power struggles to control the
ANPP's National Executive Committee have been partially
attributed to political jockeying by Buhari's foes. The ANPP
has unsuccessfully attempted to hold its convention on two
separate occasions; it was postponed until later this year
after being halted by a court injunction. The source of the
injunction was never determined, but many speculated that the
PDP and the incumbent ANPP leadership conspired to prevent
the election of a pro-Buhari leadership. Others contend that
IBB was the one who scuttled the convention, with an
unrelenting intent to stop Buhari. A device being used to
undermine Buhari is to zone the ANPP National Chairmanship to
the Northwest; under the party guidelines, the Presidential
candidate and the National Chairman cannot hail from the same
geopolitical zone.



12. (C) Despite (or because of) this opposition, Buhari seeks
to build a credible political machine. Many key advisors are
recycled from his earlier incarnation and have participated
in numerous coups during Nigeria's troubled history. Some
remained through the IBB years, although to hear them talk,
they never approved of Buhari's removal. Members of the
group are largely northern Muslims, but some retired military
personnel from other regions are also reportedly on board.
One backer, explaining the organization's strategy to Poloff,
acknowledged that some of Buhari's earlier statements had
been misinterpreted and that the group realizes that enormous
effort will be required to overcome the skepticism of
Christians and southerners. Still Buhari was extremely
popular with the common man in the North, which accounted for
fifty percent of Nigeria's voting population. He speculated
that Buhari's inner circle would soon select a point man from
among his Christian supporters and that the group was ready
to embark on a sustained effort to ensure Buhari's nomination
by the ANPP.




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COMMENT
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13. (C) All in all, Buhari represents an ideologically vague
but psychologically resonant viewpoint in the North. He is
the pennant for a religiously conservative, yet politically
anti-establishment Northern populism. It is these adjectival
qualities that strongly endear him to those who fit into this
category but also alienate him from the many Nigerians who do
not.



14. (C) At the moment, Buhari is the most prominent figure in
the ANPP; however, this does not mean he will win the prize.
Buhari has many powerful enemies with more money and back
room clout than he does. Consequently his fight to win the
ANPP nomination is an uphill one.



15. (C)Buhari also has to find a way to traverse the great
regional and religious divides that separate him from his
Southern and Christian compatriots. If he emerges as the
ANPP candidate, region and religion will be cardinal, and
hugely divisive campaign issues. Southerners and Christians
will oppose him relentlessly. Moreover, Buhari is unlikely
to be able to unite the North due to his history with
Babangida and other political elites in the Northern
establishment.


16 (C) Given the cleavages inherent in a Buhari campaign,
Obasanjo probably sees Buhari as someone he would like to run
against. Buhari could only be assured of taking those areas
in the North that Obasanjo will lose in any event. Buhari
would push more and larger chunks of the Christian Middle
Belt, moderate Muslim, and Southern vote into Obasanjo's camp
than any other conceivable candidate.




ANDREWS