CODEL DASCHLE -- BREAKFAST MEETING WITH OBASANJO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 04 ABUJA 002652

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 09/11/2012
TAGS: OREP PREL PGOV SENV ECON NI
SUBJECT: CODEL DASCHLE -- BREAKFAST MEETING WITH OBASANJO
COVERS A RANGE OF DOMESTIC AND FOREIGN POLICY ISSUES


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reasons 1.5 (B)
and (D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: President Olusegun Obasanjo hosted a
breakfast meeting for Codel Daschle on August 31 at the
Presidential Villa. In attendance were key Executive
Council members and members of the Codel accompanied by
Ambassador Jeter and Poloff. Obasanjo began by giving the
Codel a brief history of the founding of the FCT and the
genesis of the Villa before inviting Senator Daschle to
speak. Daschle outlined several issues which the U.S.
Senate views as important to bilateral relations, including
HIV/AIDS, NEPAD, counter-terrorism, bilateral trade,
Nigeria's economy, and the implementation of criminal
Shari'a in northern Nigeria. Obasanjo covered each topic
individually and in broad strokes, saying the right things
about each. The Ministers' participation in the meeting
was mostly symbolic, and we can only wonder if they are as
committed to Obasanjo's policies as the President himself
seemed to be. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) President Obasanjo hosted a breakfast meeting for
Senators Daschle (D-South Dakota),Reid (D-Nevada),
Nighthorse-Campbell (R-Colorado) and Bingaman (D-New
Mexico) on August 31 at the Presidential Villa. The
Ministers of Foreign Affairs, Finance, Commerce,
Integration and Cooperation, Education, Environment, and
Agriculture as well as the Attorney General were present.
The Senate delegation was accompanied by Ambassador Jeter,
Codel staff, and Poloff (notetaker). Obasanjo gave the
delegation a brief history of the Federal Capital Territory
and the origin and construction of the Presidential Villa
before inviting Daschle to speak. Senator Daschle outlined
several issues which the U.S. Senate views as important to
bilateral relations, including HIV/AIDS, NEPAD, counter-
terrorism, bilateral assistance and trade, Nigeria's
economy, and the implementation of Shari'a law in northern
Nigeria. Obasanjo responded to each in order.



3. (U) Obasanjo began by saying that Nigeria's present
republic, not yet three and one half years old, is still
developing. He pointed out that he had ushered in the last
civilian government in Nigeria, which lasted only four
years. This brief interlude of civilian rule, he went on,
was followed by 15 years of military rule. "A forty year
old Nigerian has never seen a functioning democracy,"
Obasanjo underscored.


HIV/AIDS
--------------



4. (C) Obasanjo said he identified HIV/AIDS as a critical
issue immediately on assuming office. "When I came in, the
subject was taboo," he said. The President realized that
public debate and discussion were important and established
a Cabinet-level commission. This group held a summit on
the problem and launched the Strategic Program for
Combating HIV/AIDS. As a sign of his commitment, Obasanjo
reminded Daschle of his presence at the White House when
President Bush launched the Global Task Force against AIDS.
According to Obasanjo, statistics indicate partial GON
success in slowing the spread of HIV/AIDS. He commented
that the incidence of HIV/AIDS in Nigeria when he took
office was about 5.4 percent of the at-risk population.
"After two years, it was only 5.8 percent." Obasanjo said
that his experts had informed him that since the rate was
rising "arithmetically instead of exponentially," Nigeria's
efforts to slow the epidemic were having an impact.
(Comment: While Obasanjo's interpretation is plausible, it
is not the only one. A less roseate view held by many
experts is that Nigeria's actual HIV/AIDS prevalence is
under-reported. These experts believe Nigeria is slowly but
steadily approaching the point where the HIV/AIDS
prevalence rate could increase much more steeply; moreover,
the rate in many urban centers and some rural areas of the
country is much higher than the national average. Unless
present trends are arrested in these areas, many locations
may begin to approach prevalence rates similar to those
seen in Eastern and Southern Africa. End Comment.)


NEPAD
--------------



5. (C) On NEPAD, Obasanjo explained his role in helping
to launch the initiative. Reciting the genesis and history
of NEPAD so far, Obasanjo said that he (as head of the G-
77),along with South Africa's Thabo Mbeki (NAM Chairman)
and Algeria's Bouteflika (OAU Chairman) had coincidentally
presented similar views of underdevelopment to the G-8 in
Japan in 2000. Meeting on the margins of the Japan
meetings, the three leaders came up with the initial
design. Nigeria, Algeria and South Africa, along with
Senegal and Egypt who became involved in the subsequent
planning, presented the program at the 2001 Lusaka OAU
Summit. At that time, fifteen OAU members became involved
in developing the initiative and presented it in detail to
the 2001 G-8 in Italy.



6. (C) According to Obasanjo, the outstanding issue (other
than funding) on the NEPAD proposal is the peer review
mechanism. He said that the African Union should finalize
the mechanism at its November meeting. He described the
peer review mechanism as voluntary rather than compulsory;
its appeal was that review would be accomplished by other
AU members rather than outsiders. While the mechanism is
voluntary, he said, a state could not be a full member of
the AU without subscribing to it. Obasanjo predicted that
most African countries would adopt the mechanism in
November.


COUNTER-TERRORISM
--------------



7. (C) Obasanjo expressed his appreciation for the USG's
accolades on Nigeria's stand against terrorism; however, he
said that Nigeria took the stand as a member of the
international community and in its own self-interest.
"Allowing terror to expand would put Nigeria at greater
risk," he stated, pointing to Nigeria's underdevelopment,
poverty and its ethnic and religious diversity. "We have a
conservative, traditional element, but Nigeria will not
condone terrorism and will not harbor terrorists," Obasanjo
declared emphatically. He said that combating terrorism is
not always popular in Nigeria, as it is viewed as a
"reaction against Muslims," but he and Nigeria remained
fully committed.


OIL AND THE ECONOMY
--------------



8. (C) Shifting to the economy, Obasanjo commented that
when he took office, the "economy equaled oil." He said
that his goal was to reform and diversify the Nigerian
economy. By the end of the decade, he planned to expand
Nigeria's oil production capacity within the OPEC
framework. "It is in the interests of both producers and
consumers to maintain a stable supply of oil," he observed.
According to Obasanjo, the GON wanted to maintain the price
of crude near the $25/barrel mark and that it is "in
Nigeria's interest" to remain in OPEC in order to play a
"moderating role." He said that increased natural gas
production was the second major area for economic
expansion. Obasanjo claimed that by the end of 2002, three
of the planned six LNG trains should be operational and
steps had been taken to ensure the completion of the
remaining three trains ahead of schedule.



9. (C) The third element of Obasanjo's economic diversity
goals is the increased exploitation of solid minerals.
According to Obasanjo, commercially viable deposits of
bitumen, gold, tantalite and diamonds exist in Nigeria, and
as soon as preliminary surveys are completed, Nigeria would
be interested in outside investment to help develop these
minerals. The final element of Obasanjo's diversification
strategy is agriculture. He highlighted the vast potential
for agricultural production throughout the nation and hoped
the sector could be revitalized. Obasanjo mused that the
best results could be achieved by concentrating on one or
two products, such as cassava (which could be marketed for
both human and livestock feed as well as individual use.)
Obasanjo stressed that Nigeria would remain within the WTO
and would seek to benefit from AGOA I and II provisions.


SHARIA LAW
--------------



10. (C) Turning to Shari'a law, Obasanjo embarked on a
history of Nigeria's legal code. According to him, Ahmadu
Bello mandated jurists to produce a "penal code" in 1958
which substituted imprisonment for stoning and amputation.
This penal code (with some modifications) was affirmed by
the 1979 Nigerian Constitution. "So Shari'a has always been
part of our law," he claimed. As for the recent passage of
new Shari'a laws in northern Nigeria, Obasanjo said the
impetus was "more political than religious." However,
attacking it would be viewed as an assault on Islam. He
commented that he definitely could not fight it head-on or
"I will lose." The Federal Government's strategy,
according to Obasanjo, was to give Shari'a advocates their
political space by not confronting them directly while,
working discreetly behind the scenes, to prevent any
"dastardly act" of stoning from being perpetrated.



11. (C) Obasanjo pointed to the resolution of the Safia
Husseini case in Sokoto as a success, but complained that
the Katsina State Governor (who delegated the case to his
Attorney General, whom he thought had the case under
control) had mishandled the Amina Lawal case by not
pressuring the lower courts to reject the stoning sentence.
"The majority of Nigeria's states do not support Shari'a
law," he said, "but the GON is still looking for a way to
enforce the constitution on the states." Obasanjo stated
that it is "only a matter of time" before one of the cases
makes its way to the Supreme Court where the issue could be
finally laid to rest. (Comment: More than half of the
Ministers present at the Codel meeting were Muslims; none
disagreed with his explanation of GON policy. End
Comment.)


DEBT RELIEF
--------------



12. (C) Questions from Senators Reid and Campbell prompted
Obasanjo to address two issues important to Nigeria - debt
relief and Zimbabwe. When Reid commended Nigeria on its
participation in PKOs, Obasanjo said that Nigeria's
neighbors are always "pulling for us to succeed," if only
to keep Nigerians at home lest an exodus overwhelm
Nigeria's smaller neighbors. Pointing to Nigeria's PKO
expenditure of $12 billion in the region over the past few
years, Obasanjo asked rhetorically, "Why is it difficult to
write off our debt?" If it were set aside for health,
education or water supplies, "that would be something," he
stated.


ZIMBABWE
--------------



13. (C) On Zimbabwe, Obasanjo reminded the Codel that he
had been the military Head of State when Zimbabwe became
independent. "At the time, land was an issue." According
to Obasanjo, both the British and the American Governments
agreed to assist with land reforms "on the basis of willing
buyers and sellers." "Promises were not kept," he said.
According to Obasanjo, Mugabe was prohibited from amending
the Zimbabwean Constitution to provide for land reform
until 1991. When the prohibitions on amending the
constitution expired, African leaders advised him to "wait
for success in South Africa" before making any changes.
This he did. During the recent Zimbabwean elections,
Obasanjo tried to counsel Mugabe, but Mugabe's response was
that the only important issue remaining for the country was
land redistribution.



14. (C) "If I resolve it," Mugabe told Obasanjo, "in the
next two or three years I can go." Obasanjo said that much
of the land redistributed previously was "not well
managed." He also said that Mugabe indicated that Zimbabwe
was appreciative of the white farmers and continues to
require their expertise. (Comment: This last statement
jars. Thus far, Mugabe's show of appreciation has been to
show the farmers the door. Obasanjo continues to believe
his talking to Mugabe will ultimately soften the Zimbabwean
leader; however, Mugabe has not given any indication that
his position is moderating. Thus, Obasanjo's recitation of
Mugabe's statement not only rings hollow, it seems a bit
disingenuous. End Comment.)


COMMENT
--------------



15. (C) Obasanjo was relaxed, jocular and hospitable
throughout the more than two-hour breakfast, joking several
times with his Ministers and staff. However, by hosting
this Ministerial roundtable himself, Obasanjo and his
dominant presence ensured that the Ministers would have
virtually nothing to add to the substantive discussions.
The Attorney General was the only Minister to speak during
the session, and then only to reinforce points previously
made by the President. Obasanjo spoke in general,
strategic terms, and did not ventured into much detail on
any of the domestic or foreign policy matters discussed.
This two hour meeting was informative and upbeat, allowing
the Codel to get some measure of the man at Nigeria's helm
and what he sees are major issues on his domestic and
foreign policy agenda. However, the Codel did not get much
of an indication whether Obasanjo's Ministers were
sufficiently able shipmates to their captain to navigate
through the many domestic and regional challenges that face
his Administration.



16. (C) In a way, the meeting was reflective of the actual
way the Presidency functions. Obasanjo is a leader who
likes to deal in large, broad strokes; however, only a
handful of his Ministers take the initiative and drive to
turn his broad directives into action without further
instructions from the President. Out of apprehension and
deference, many senior officials wait to get detailed
directives from the President before acting. Partially
because of the fact that so many decisions are postponed
until they have the President's approval, action and reform
is very slow and uneven. This is one of the major problems
of the Obasanjo Administration, a problem that Obasanjo
will have to resolve if he gets a third chance to rule this
very complex and difficult nation.



17. (U) Codel did not have a chance to clear this cable
before its departure.
JETER