NIGERIA: FUROR OVER INEC

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002522

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/25/2012
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PINS NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: FUROR OVER INEC


REF: ABUJA: 1159


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5 (B)
AND (D).



1. (C) Summary: The Independent National Electoral Commission
(INEC) faces serious challenges in its efforts to prepare
Nigeria for early 2003 national, state and local elections.
Nigerians know these elections are crucial in determining
whether their democracy survives and is strengthened or
whether it falters and perhaps crumbles. Many people suspect
INEC and its taciturn Chairman, Abel Guobadia, are not up to
the task. Murmuring about INEC's inability has given way to
public grousing and calls for the Chairman and his
Commissioners to resign. To be fair, the Presidency's failure
to release funds in a timely manner caused many of INEC's
problems. However, many INEC wounds were self-inflicted.
INEC did not plan voter registration properly or timely, a
corruption scandal in the Legal Department now dogs the
Commission, and INEC has been on the wrong end of lawsuits
over party registration. More importantly, the perception
that INEC is not its own agent but takes marching orders from
the Presidency is widespread. INEC needs to clean up its act
and image quickly for it to play the important role of a
neutral, technically competent conductor for these historic
elections. End Summary


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LACK OF PREPARATION
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2. (C) INEC Commissioner Guobadia called on Ambassador Jeter
and other Mission officers on August 7. The Commissioner
opened the dialogue by defending INEC's independence.
However, he admitted that INEC's image had been compromised
by its inability to produce a voter register in time for May
or August local government elections. Guobadia attributed
this lapse to several factors-- the Federal Government's
failure to release funds until May 2002, the Local Government
Authority (LGA) crisis and consequent court ruling, and the
court challenge over new party registration. Guobadia claimed
INEC was ready for voters' registration in July, but the
registration of new parties and their subsequent lawsuits
prevented them from moving ahead. (Comment: Guobadia was
correct in stating that the timing for voter registration was
dependent on party registration. However, he conveniently
forgot a most crucial point. INEC controlled the timing and
pace of party registration. Thus, the bottleneck created when
the party's were not registered bears INEC's fingerprints
because it was caused by INEC's lethargy and lack of having
defined the "critical path" for scheduling electoral
preparations. End Comment.)



3. (U) Dr. Guobadia cited deficiencies in the voter
registration process for 1999 elections as the cause of
election irregularities; to prevent a recurrence, a national
committee had been established to evaluate the security and
integrity of the process. This committee hopes to complete
its work by the end of August. According to Guobadia, the
registration exercise could begin in September and local
elections could be held in early January. (Comment: Again,
Guobadia was playing fast with the facts. Previously, he
contended INEC was ready for voter registration in July only
to state later that the ad hoc committee on voter
registration would not complete its work until the end of
August. The two assertions are ahrd to reconcile. In reality,
the special committee was not formed in order to prevent the
repeat of 1999's mistakes; it was established in response to
myriad complaints, particularly from Northern political
elites and traditional rulers, against the registration plans
formulated by Guobadia's INEC. End Comment.)



4. (C) Despite many objections, the Chairman asserted INEC
is ready to go to the field for voter registration.
Non-delivery of the cameras necessary to produce the official
registration card means that a temporary card would be
necessary. (NOTE: This method not only opens another door for
either fraud or disenfranchisement, but also necessitates at
least two, perhaps three, trips to the registration site
before voters would receive their official identifications.
This could prove somewhat onerous to the rural poor who might
have to walk several miles just to reach the closest site,
meaning these bucolic pedestrians would have to traverse such
long distances multiple times in back-and-forth round-trips.
Based on the threat of boycott and the serious logistical
obstacles we suspect that photo registration cards will not
be ready ahead of 2003 elections, and may possibly never be
produced. End Note.)


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CORRUPTION IN INEC
--------------



5. (C) INEC is also being rocked by a bribery scandal
involving at least three top officials. At the center of the
scandal is INEC's National Commissioner for Legal Matters,
Mrs. May Obegolu. Obegolu and her son, Emeka, allegedly
collected a USDols 162,000 (Naira 21 million) "gratuity" from
a legal consortium, KDIO, to facilitate a Naira 124 million
contract. KDIO had been contracted by INEC to monitor the
execution of INEC's USDols 27 million contract with a South
African firm for the supply and computerization of the voters
register. The scandal, coming at a time when INEC's ability
to perform has already come into severe question, has created
a public outcry for Guobadia's resignation and the
dissolution of the commission. Ruling out resignation as an
option, Guobadia contends that INEC responded to the
allegations appropriately, and that the Commission is capable
of carrying out its mission.



6. (U) Police authorities, acting on the orders of President
Obasanjo, have reportedly detained Mrs. Obegolu, her son, and
two other INEC chiefs. In response, Mrs. Obegolu filed a
complaint with the Independent Corrupt Practices and Related
Offenses Commission (CPC) accusing virtually every top INEC
member, including Guobadia, of corrupt practices. The ICPC
has begun its investigation into this complaint and invited
all those accused to appear to defend themselves.


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CONTINUING MISTRUST
--------------



7. (C) Perhaps the greatest challenge for INEC (and the most
difficult to overcome in the public's eyes) is the continual
questioning of its intentions. As originally announced, the
aborted July registration effort was to be completed in a
five-day period. During the August 7 meeting with the
Ambassador, the Chairman indicated that the registration
period had been extended to 10-14 days. When asked whether
resources were available for this longer period, the Chairman
firmly asserted that he was "confident the resources would be
provided." Additionally, there have been many objections to
holding the exercise during the rainy season, which will not
end until October. Voters in the South will be affected
since the ability to travel is severely hampered during this
time. The agrarian North and Middle Belt are affected
because farmers are unable to leave their fields during this
critical time of harvest. Extending the time period addresses
only a small part of these concerns. Some Northern leaders,
convinced that the North is being discriminated against by
the process, have called for an outright boycott of the
registration.



8. (U) Disputes over the method of registration have also
arisen. The original plan was to complete a manual
registration locally to include the collection of personal
data, fingerprints and photographs. This manual record was
to be used for local elections, while a computerized record
would be compiled from the manual data in time for State and
Federal elections. Additionally, complaints over the
complexity of the forms are common. Test registrations have
been run and even well-educated, politically astute
registrants needed 6-8 minutes to complete the form.
Opponents to the form claim that the majority of the populace
will be overwhelmed by the process, unable to provide
accurate information and unwilling to endure what will
quickly become a tortuous process. The Arewa Consultative
Forum (ACF) has been particularly vocal in its criticism of
the registration form, claiming that the complex form will
disenfranchise the illiterate. They also fear that the voters
register will be used to infer census data, another
hot-button issue in the North. Other Nigerians are taking
advantage of these issues to call for reforms and have
threatened an outright boycott of the registration process.
These efforts are usually couched in local terms, but are
based on the suspicion that INEC is attempting to manipulate
the outcome of elections as well as disadvantage the North.


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Odds and Ends
--------------



9. (C) INEC's independence has been strongly questioned,
particularly over party registration. It has been accused of
supporting the PDP's bid to maintain the status quo by
refusing to allow the registration of new parties. Although
INEC did finally register three new parties in June, the
matter is still not settled. An earlier court ruling in
favor of INEC's criteria for party qualification was
overturned in an appeal filed by unsuccessful applicants,
notably the National Conscience Party. During his meeting
with the Ambassador, the Chairman contended INEC had adhered
faithfully to the constitutional mandate to ensure "federal
character." However, the Appeals Court disagreed that INEC
had correctly followed the precepts stated in the
constitution and the 2001 Electoral Law. The Chairman
indicated that INEC would appeal the ruling to the Supreme
Court. Should INEC lose this case the dynamic could again
change radically. If upheld by the Supreme Court, the court's
decision could result in the registration of many additional
parties, perhaps as many as the 33 that originally applied.
The advent of new parties would reset the schedule for voters
registration, and at the very least, further delay local
government elections. The confusion that would result over
the configuration of the actual ballot paper and at the polls
in general could be substantial.



10. (C) Another danger, which the inability to complete the
voter registration exercise might give rise to is using the
1999 register for the 2003 election. Due to the
constitutional mandate for a change of government by May 29,
2003, INEC could be pressured into proceeding with the best
available alternative: the old list. The resultant
disenfranchisement of millions of young voters who reached
majority in the interim has a great potential erupt. The
youth, who have a well-known propensity to express their
dissatisfaction with the Nigerian system through protests and
demonstrations, would undoubtedly seize the opportunity
presented by this slight to demonstrate their collective
displeasure.



11. (U) A final area of contention is over the date of the
elections. The National Assembly is lobbying to hold the
elections in one day. The hope is that by holding the
election in one day, presidential and gubernatorial
candidates would be forced to concentrate on their own races
instead of trying to influence the National Assembly
contests. Notwithstanding the difficulties of the
registration process itself, Guobadia continues to resist
this option, claiming in this instance that it would create a
too-complicated ballot that would disadvantage illiterate
voters and that the logistics would be too difficult. He
also questioned the legality and constitutionality of this
approach, but did not elaborate.


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COMMENT
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12. (C) INEC has a critical role to play if the 2003
elections are to be credible. First, INEC must be adequately
funded and technically competent. It must have the resources
to conduct voters registration and the elections. INEC has to
be more active in pressuring the Presidency to allot the
necessary funding. INEC must also have the ability and the
expertise to plan these exercises wisely and then implement
those plans. No one expects the elections to be perfect but
they must be seen as fair; above all INEC must be seen as
impartial.



13. (C) Despite flaws in the 1999 exercise, Nigerians give
much higher marks to the Commission established by the
Abdulsalam Abubakar military government than to the current
edition of INEC. The irony that the military's Electoral
Commission and Guobadia's predecessor as Chairman were more
proficient, independent and effective has not been lost on
most Nigerian politicians. They suspect INEC's perceived
indifference and indecision are being orchestrated by the
Presidency to maximize Obasanjo's reelection prospects.





14. (C) The current deep suspicion of INEC is unfortunate
but still redeemable. The upcoming voter registration
exercise will determine whether INEC and its Chairman can
restore their credibility and demonstrate to Nigerians that
the elections are not being manipulated and that the task is
not too big and complicated for this INEC to handle.
JETER