SOLOMON LAR'S READOUT OF NIGERIA'S POLITICAL SCENE

C O N F I D E N T I A L ABUJA 002521

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/22/2012
TAGS: PGOV NI
SUBJECT: SOLOMON LAR'S READOUT OF NIGERIA'S POLITICAL SCENE

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER; REASONS 1.5(B & D).



1. (C) SUMMARY: Chief Solomon Lar, a longtime Middle Belt
politician and former Chairman of the PDP, told Ambassador on
August 19 that President Obasanjo was in a strong position to
win a second presidential term, even if facing Ibrahim
Babangida. Lar also predicted that Obasanjo would be able to
regain the support of the Tiv, one of the most numerous and
important Middle Belt ethnic groups and still waiting for an
apology from the President for the government's role in the
recent army massacre in Benue State. END SUMMARY.



2. (C) Perennial Plateau State politician Dr. Solomon Lar
met with Ambassador and Poloff on August 19 and offered a
snapshot of the Nigerian political scene, particularly on
President Obasanjo's prospects for re-election. Responding
to the Ambassador's question, Lar said that if former
military ruler Ibrahim Babangida (IBB) were Obasanjo's main
opponent for the presidency, Obasanjo would emerge
victorious. Lar speculated that Katsina and Sokoto states
would support Obasanjo. He also thought that Kano, Kebbi and
Kaduna would split between the two candidates, commenting
that throughout northern Nigeria, IBB's sentimental support
as a northerner would be tempered by the negative memories of
his regime and transgressions against domestic interests in
many areas.



3. (C) In his assessment of Obasanjo's prospects in the
Middle Belt region, Lar was equally optimistic. He thought
that Obasanjo, a Christian, would be able to appeal to the
embattled feelings of Christians in the area. Further, Lar
guaranteed that he would "deliver" the Tivs to the Obasanjo
camp. He dismissed the resentment among the Tivs (stemming
from the army's disastrous response to communal violence),
saying that at the end of the day, they would come back to
Obasanjo's PDP. Ambassador Jeter noted that the Tivs had
demanded a public apology from the President, but Lar
dismissed the demand without commenting on whether Obasanjo
would offer one.



4. (C) COMMENT: Lar has been involved in Middle Belt
politics for decades, and even in his seventies is striving
to remain relevant in a society which is searching for fresh
faces. His relocation to Abuja, away from his power base in
Plateau State, is an indication of the lengths he will go in
order to remain at the center of action and is a possible
sign of the weakening of his support among the younger
generation of Middle Belt politicos. Whether or not he
remains a relevant player on the regional scene, Lar's
assessment of Obasanjo's prospects is influenced by his
closeness to the Presidency and his efforts to convince it of
his own importance.
JETER