TRAVEL WARNING EVOKES STRONG POLITICAL REACTION IN

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002415

SIPDIS


DEPARTMENT FOR AF, AF/W, AF/RA AND CA


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/15/2012
TAGS: CASC PREL OPRC NI
SUBJECT: TRAVEL WARNING EVOKES STRONG POLITICAL REACTION IN
NIGERIA

REF: BROWNE-EPSTEIN E-MAILS


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASONS 1.5 (B &
D).



1. (C) The August 8 State Department Travel Warning has
evoked highly negative reactions in Nigeria. Many in the
Nigerian Government (GON) are interpreting the travel
warning as a sign of deep U.S. disappointment and
dissatisfaction with the Obasanjo Administration and a
deliberate and even hostile act. The administration's
opponents are pointing to the Travel Warning as a sign that
President Obasanjo is no longer in good favor with the
United States. Reports on the Travel Warning were carried
in ten newspapers over the August 10-11 week-end, and was
the lead story on radio and TV; commentary and editorials
have continued throughout the week.



2. (C) Nigerian Foreign Minister Sule Lamido and ruling
PDP Party Chairman Audu Ogbeh spoke publicly with passion
about the Travel Warning, and expressed their
disappointment with the United States, a country, they
said, Nigeria has considered a close friend and ally. A
Special Assistant in the Office approached the Ambassador
on August 14, asking "why does America hate Nigeria so
much," and pointed out the damaging effect that the Travel
Warning would have on Nigeria's fledgling efforts to
attract foreign investment. (Comment: the August 14 "New
Nigerian" newspaper claimed that the Australian Government
recalled two trade missions that were already in Nigeria,
claiming that the country was not safe. End comment.) The
sponsors of an upcoming arts festival called the Ambassador
to request a letter to the invited American participants to
assure them that it was still possible to visit Nigeria for
the event, and that their lives would not be in danger.
(COMMENT: Prince Pat Abii, National Coordinator for the
Obasanjo/Atiku Peoples Democratic Project, one of the
informal groups established to promote Obasanjo's
reelection, confided to PolCouns that FM Lamido had
privately told her that the Travel Warning was factual and
that he had no personal qualms with it. However, given the
political storm it has caused, Lamido felt compelled to
make a public comment in an attempt to pre-empt critics of
the administration. END COMMENT.)



3. (C) Timing more than content of the Travel Warning was
what seemed to rankle GON officials most. The Travel
Warning followed a string of bad press on Nigeria in recent
weeks, including a stinging CNN report on 4-1-9, a "Money
magazine" article on financial fraud, and internet-posted
comments from a recent Center for Strategic and
International Studies (CSIS) meeting on Nigeria that
painted a gloomy picture of Nigeria's upcoming 2003
elections and prejudged their credibility. The August 13
release of Nigeria's Human Rights Report, which
characterized the GON's human rights record as "poor,"
contributed to this already defensive environment.



4. (C) Political opponents of Obasanjo have applauded and
welcomed the Travel Warning, saying that it confirms how
discredited the Obasanjo Administrations really is. This
comes at a time when the National Assembly, angry at the
President for holding the line on government spending, has
called on Obasanjo to resign and passed a motion for his
impeachment (septel). Senate President Anyim, once an
Obasanjo ally, cited the warning as a reason for the
National Assembly to hold a session to debate the
administration's performance on internal security. The
President's Special Assistant also claimed that the Warning
has also played into the hands of some of Nigeria's most
corrupt legislators who will use it to leverage concessions
from the President not to oppose their bids for re-
election.


COMMENT
--------------



5. (C) Drawing on the Department's press guidance, the
Embassy has issued a press statement explaining the purpose
of the Travel Warning and debunking charges that the
warning was an effort to harm Nigeria. The statement was
welcomed by the Permanent Secretary in the Ministry of
Foreign Affairs who has requested that we post it on the
Internet. The Ambassador also plans to hold an interview
with three of Nigeria's leading dailies on Monday, August
19, in an effort to clear the air.



6. (C) GON anger over the August 8 Travel Warning
eventually will pass, although it has generated suspicions,
within the administration and among its critics, that the
U.S. is distancing itself from the embattled Obasanjo
government. The uproar over the Travel Warning
demonstrates and highlights the enormous sensitivities
inherent in Nigeria's current political environment. In
the local context, our Travel Warning became a political
statement, not an advisory to American citizens. The
sensitivity will only increase as elections draw nearer.



7. (C) The Embassy first learned about the release of the
Travel Warning from the August 10-11 reports in the
Nigerian press. While most of the content of the Warning
is not in dispute, the Embassy could have lessened the
negative impact of its release through advance consultation
and an opportunity to brief senior GON officials ahead of
its release. Moreover, the timing of the Warning's release
could no have been worse, given the domestic political
situation in Nigeria. As it stands, the unanticipated
release of this Warning supports the growing belief in the
Obasanjo government that the USG is complicit in an effort
to undermine the GON's credibility on the approach to the
2003 elections.
JETER