NIGERIA: OBASANJO FACES VIOLENT PROTEST IN KANO

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 002322

SIPDIS


FOR DS/OP/AF AND DS/DSS/ITA


E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/01/2007
TAGS: ASEC PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO FACES VIOLENT PROTEST IN KANO


CLASSIFIED BY A/DCM BRIAN L. BROWNE. REASON 1.5 (B) and (D).



1. (C) Summary: Instead of being a vehicle to improve his
image in Northern public opinion, President Obasanjo's visit
to Kano has been mired in controversy over the police
response to anti-Obasanjo protests in that city. Over 35
people were arrested when their demonstration turned violent
July 29. There are conflicting accounts about fatalities.
Media reports indicate seven people may have been killed by
police bullets; but these reports are unconfirmed and the GON
denies any killings. There were credible reports of people
wounded but the cause(s) of their injuries remain uncertain.
In any event, the protest both illustrate and further
reinforce Obasanjo's negative image in Kano and much of the
North. End Summary.



2. (U) President Olusegun Obasanjo attended the launch of the
biography of the Emir of Kano, Alhaji Ado Bayero, at the
Emir's Palace July 29 as part of an official visit to Kano.
According to media reports, police fired after protesters
became more agitated and started to draw near when Obasanjo's
entourage left the venue. The protesters were shouting
pro-Buhari and pro-Mohammed Abacha slogans as well as
carrying placards of both men. (Note: Buhari is a
presidential hopeful whose popularity in Kano is significant
and whose criticism of Obasanjo has been stinging. Abacha,
the son of late Head of State Sani Abacha, remains jailed
despite the Supreme Court decision freeing him of charges in
the murder of Kudirat Abiola, wife of the annulled 1993
election's putative victor Moshood Abiola. Quashing the
murder charges was part of a deal whereby Abacha would be
freed in exchange for the recovery of over one billion
dollars government funds stolen by the Abacha family. Since
the funds have not yet been transferred to its account, the
GON has delayed Abacha's release. End Note.)



3. (U) Several press reports claim that, as a result of the
police shootings and tear gas, 7 people were killed and
others wounded.



4. (U) The Presidency promptly issued a July 30 statement
denying any fatalities. The press release stated "it is true
that a small group of people had displayed placards demanding
the release of Mohammed Abacha at the Emir's palace, venue of
the launching of the book." The Presidency contended the
"police acted promptly to check the disruptive intention of
the protesters and dispersed them with tear-gas and
time-tested crowd-control measures." The release criticized
local and foreign media organizations like BBC and VOA for
reporting the alleged shooting deaths.



5. (U) Alhaji Aminu Kwaru, the Private Secretary to the Emir
of Kano, told our Political FSN that tear gas was fired but
there were no fatalities and he did not believe any shots
were fired. He blamed the incident on politicians exploiting
the emotions of unemployed and disgruntled youth. Although
there was no evidence of fatalities, Kwaru would not discount
the possibility that some had been injured.



6. (U) However, other Embassy sources claimed shots were
fired but they could not confirm if the shots were aimed at
the protesters or in the air. A BBC reporter saw several
injured demonstrators but no evidence of any fatalities. The
Kano State Police Commissioner also denied any shooting
deaths. He did state that 37 protesters had been arrested for
causing a public disturbance.


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COMMENT
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7. (C) Considering the controversy overhanging Mohammed
Abacha's continued detention and that Buhari would also be at
the Emir's palace, Obasanjo was walking into unfriendly
territory when he entered Kano. Obasanjo also should have
expected a rough welcome given the treatment meted to V.P.
Atiku in Kano a few months ago. (Atiku was the target of rock
throwing at a book launching in May.) Given these factors,
the timing of the visit seemed ill advised. It suggests an
underestimation within the Presidency of the depth of the
opposition in Kano as well as an underestimation of the
extent to which Obasanjo's opponents will go to make him look
bad should he walk on their home turf.



8. (C) The Kano incident has generated negative media for
Obasanjo at a time when he does not need any more bad news.
Many people will make up their minds on what happened in Kano
based on their feelings about Obasanjo. Thus, despite the
lack of concrete evidence, many Obasanjo critics will believe
the killings took place because they want to think the worst
about Obasanjo and his government. On another level, this
event is another signal that the election campaign will be
tumultuous and occasioned by episodes of violence.
JETER