Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
02ABUJA2171
2002-07-23 15:37:00
SECRET
Embassy Abuja
Cable title:  

NIGERIA: FAILED PDP PRIMARY INDICATES MORE THAN

Tags:  PREL PGOV KDEM NI 
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This record is a partial extract of the original cable. The full text of the original cable is not available.
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002171 

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: FAILED PDP PRIMARY INDICATES MORE THAN
PARTY STRIFE FOR NIGERIAN ELECTORAL PROCESS


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5 (B) AND
(D).


S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 002171

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/23/2012
TAGS: PREL PGOV KDEM NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: FAILED PDP PRIMARY INDICATES MORE THAN
PARTY STRIFE FOR NIGERIAN ELECTORAL PROCESS


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5 (B) AND
(D).



1. (C) Summary: Many states delayed PDP primaries slated for
early July for fear of violence. Violent disturbances marred
the primaries that did go forward; Post sources could verify
peaceful primaries in only four states. Vice President Atiku
Abubakar indicated that agreements aimed at limiting violence
within and between parties are being struck. Even days after
the primaries, it is difficult to give a detailed account of
what transpired as the situation in many areas remains
uncertain. However, this message attempts to give a
representative sampling of what we have learned thus far.
Clearly the PDP is a fragmented machine and its inability to
conduct credible party primaries indicates continued trouble
for the electoral process.


--------------
PDP Primary
--------------



2. (U) PDP primaries held in early July turned violent in
much of the country. Rioting, property damage, bodily injury
and deaths were reported in several states. A number of
states postponed the primaries in all or large portions of
their territory in anticipation of trouble. Other states
called off primaries when clashes between party factions
erupted in violence too difficult to control. Primaries were
successfully completed without violence in Zamfara, Sokoto,
Borno and Jigawa State. Primaries were not held in Katsina
State, Sokoto State, Abia State or Plateau State. In Plateau
State, a scene of earlier PDP factional violence, the primary
was postponed following an ethnic clash that occurred on the
previous weekend; ultimately, Plateau chose its candidates by
consensus, except for three of the most volatile LGAs in Jos
itself.



3. (U) In Taraba State, two persons were reported killed and
10 injured in election related violence. In the comparatively
calm Federal Capital Territory (FCT),only three of six
councils were able to complete the exercise. In Kaduna State,
rival candidates are rumored to be solving their differences
prior to the primary by agreeing on a consensus candidate.
The state party had hoped to head off potential violence in
this manner. However, Kaduna State later moved ahead with its

primaries, which became marred by violence with 15 persons
reportedly killed. An Embassy FSN witnessed several persons
in Kwara State being taken into police custody, with what
appeared to be knife and other injuries in primary-related
violence.





4. (U) In Delta State, widespread violence on June 30 caused
the postponement of the July 1 caucus. Two people reportedly
died while seven persons sustained serious injuries. Police
have arrested at least 40 rioters for electoral violence and
illegal possession of arms. In Rivers State, the primary was
halted and rescheduled for July 9 in four councils due to
violence. On July 9, violence marred the rescheduled primary,
and many persons reportedly fled to Port Harcourt or remained
in their homes. According to reports, over 100 were left
homeless after their homes were destroyed by rioters. In
Bayelsa State 4-8 people lost their lives killed during the
primary violence and at least 15 people were seriously
injured. Twelve houses were set ablaze. Imo State PDP
conducted its primaries July 5. Approximately 20 were
injured and several incidents of vandalism and arson were
reported.





5. (U) The party in Edo State completed the primary with
credible results; however, some local chapters of the PDP
lodged complaints at the party secretariat alleging gross
irregularities in the primary process. There were reports
that thousands of protestors disrupted the primaries in
several wards. In Ogun State, aggrieved members of the party
have also lodged several complaints at the party secretariat.
The Oyo state PDP congress was moved to Abuja after a failed
attempt to hold it in Ibadan. Many aspirants have complained
of manipulation and unfair use of executive power in Adamawa
State. Aspirants and their supporters have protested the use
of minors and bribery to manipulate primary results. The
State PDP Chairman stunned journalists when asked to comment
on the alleged "rigging or irregularities". Chief Joel
Madaki stated, "Rigging is a nice word. I like it. It is
acceptable in politics." In Kano State many candidates
reported irregularities and have threatened to leave the PDP.








-------------- -
Failed and Postponed Primaries not Surprising
-------------- -



6. (S) In late June, PDP Chairman Audu Ogbeh told the DCM
that he feared for Nigeria because the country's productive
economy was in ruins and the only thing left for people to
"do" was politics. Given the PDP's track record, Ogbeh
doubted the PDP primaries would be free of violence in very
many places. He stated that Governors were trying to force
through lists that favored them, even though primaries had
not been held. (Note: The governors are not the only ones,
lists coming from Aso Rock also add to the tension. End
Note.) Ogbeh said he told several governors that he would
simply substitute in other names if he thought they were
playing tricks; as Party Chairman he had the authority to
certify the party's candidates. (Note: This so-called fix
has its flaws. Not only is it arbitrary, previous past PDP
chairmen reportedly made money from the practice of changing
lists).



7. (C) A PDP member of the National Assembly told Poloffs
that the primary in Anambra State was marred by cheating.
The Representative stated that he witnessed "open ballot"
voting for local government candidates in one ward that
produced an undisputed winner, only to find that the defeated
contestant had emerged victorious when the results were
compiled at the state level. He claimed similar chicanery was
practiced throughout the state. Dr. C.P. Eziefe, former
Anambra State governor and currently a Special Advisor to the
President, told Polcouns that candidates in the PDP primaries
in Abuja had bussed people from outside the capital to skew
the election results. In Bayelsa State, he claimed the
governor had issued an ultimatum to all LGA contestants: He
had already selected who would win the nomination, thus there
was no need to run against his handpicked choices. To soften
the blow, the governor offered to compensate the losers for
their campaign expenses if they agreed to drop out of the
race before the primary. Those with the temerity to continue
against the governor's wishes, would have to swallow their
loss and well as their own expenses. Ezeife contended that
the party's national executive committee, itself a victim of
internecine fighting, was too divided and overwhelmed to
prevent these transgressions from happening right under their
noses in the nation's capital let alone in more distant
places.



8. (C) Perhaps most disturbing of all, a group of Northern
elder statesmen, whose political careers date back to the
First Republic, recently told the Ambassador that political
divisions in Nigeria are greater now than at any time in
their collective memories. In 2003 they expected a
conflagration.


--------------
Comment
--------------



9. (C) Party primaries were fraught with intrigue,
discrepancies and outright cheating. There are several
reasons for this. As Minister of Defense and PDP king maker
Danjuma recently told the Ambassador, the PDP is perceived to
be so dominant in many states that winning the primary is
tantamount to capturing the general election. Thus, the
competition in the primaries in these areas has been as keen
as what would be expected in the final inter-party
competition. Thus, as a general rule, there was probably more
upheaval in those areas where the PDP believes it is the
strongest party. Second, there is the tenuous nature of the
PDP itself. Despite some efforts by PDP Chairman Ogbeh and
others to instill discipline and propriety, the PDP has very
little cohesion. In fact, the PDP is not a political party
in the traditional sense, but a loose confederation of very
disparate groups. Too many of the PDP's members see the
party as a platform to promote and maximize their personal
interests not as a party to which they owe allegiance.
Instead of following the party, they believe the party should
follow them. This led to relatively unbridled competition in
some areas where contestants tried to out-cheat the other.
This lack of restraint inexorably invited violence. Third,
there is common belief among those seeking national as well
as gubernatorial seats that placing allies in local
government is an essential building-block to their electoral
victory. Therefore, contestants for larger offices used the
local primaries as a type of proxy battle. Last and most
fundamentally, a great number of politicians do not value the
democratic process. The will of the voter comes in second to
the wishes of the "big man." Sadly, the political system is
weak and cannot correct itself easily; thus, misconduct
cascades. The minute one person misbehaves, others respond in
kind; honesty puts one at a severe competitive disadvantage
since there is little chance misconduct will be punished.



10. (C) Comment continued. Flawed and unseemly, the PDP
primaries highlight the major problems in Nigerian electoral
politics. It is a zero-sum, winner-take-all gambit that no
one wants to lose. As such, it is a harbinger, indeed a
warning of the difficulties that lay ahead for the general
elections. Hopefully, the impact of the PDP primaries will
register on sober minds in all the parties, the electoral
commission, and the security forces so that they will begin
to take steps that curb violence. However, the reality is
that as long as many political practitioners see politics as
an "all-or- nothing" affair, unruly competition and some
level of violence will occasion most electoral contests.


JETER