NIGERIA: OBASANJO SAYS BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001594

SIPDIS


KAMPALA FOR AID - DAWN LIBERI; RIYADH FOR POL - R. HANKS


E.O.12958: DECL: 5/23/12
TAGS: PREL PGOV EFIN EAID NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: OBASANJO SAYS BILATERAL RELATIONSHIP
IS A ONE-WAY STREET


REF: ABUJA 1091


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5
(B) AND (D).



1. (C) Summary: During a late evening May 18
conversation with Ambassador Jeter, an animated
President Obasanjo claimed the bilateral relationship
was too one-sided. While we dun him with multiple
demands to reform at home and hew our line on foreign
policy issues abroad (Zimbabwe and Cuba),we were deaf
to his pleas for debt relief. The bilateral
relationship would suffer unless we were more
forthcoming on the debt issue, he asserted. Recently
returned from the ECOWAS meeting in Yamoussoukro,
Obasanjo stated that he and President Wade were
selected to mediate a Liberian cease-fire. However,
Obasanjo was not very sanguine about the assignment,
stating President Taylor had previously rebuffed his
attempted brokerage between the GOL and its political
opposition. Although not wanting to speak in great
detail about domestic politics, Obasanjo expressed
confidence that elections would be nonviolent and that
he would emerge on top. End Summary.








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YOU ARE INDEBTED TO RELIEVE MY DEBT
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2. (C) A few minutes into a brief discussion with
Ambassador Jeter about difficulties the Embassy was
having with the Ministry of Women's Affairs regarding
operation of the EDDI-funded Community Resource Center
in Abuja, Obasanjo quickly picked up the telephone.
Calling the Women's Affairs Minister, he ordered her
to resolve the problem quickly. Purposefully within
earshot of the Ambassador, Obasanjo stressed he had
much bigger fish to fry with the USG and wanted this
relatively minor irritant off the bilateral docket so
that he could focus on the issue that interested him
the most -- debt relief.



3. (C) Putting down the telephone receiver and angling
his body toward the Ambassador, Obasanjo plaintively
remarked the USG "would not be his friend for long"
unless he saw progress on debt relief. Becoming more
agitated as he spoke, Obasanjo grumbled that he
traveled the world for three years championing debt
relief but had returned home empty-handed. Stopping
himself mid-sentence from using a strong expletive, he
lamented, "I have not received one f. penny, not one!"
He stated that he had talked to President Bush and
Prime Minister Blair but to no avail. "I don't
understand it," he decried. Obasanjo then raised the
failed debt/environment swap, claiming the USG did not
even have the courtesy to formally notify him the
proposal was aborted by the oil companies. He learned
of the failure through the media but only after he had
publicized the deal in Nigeria. By skimming 10
percent of the bilateral debt, he had viewed the swap
as a good first step and a political victory. Instead,
the episode became a significant embarrassment, he
maintained. When Ambassador Jeter tried to make the
linkage between reform and relief, Obasanjo flung
himself back in his chair for effect and bellowed,
"Come on, Ambassador!"



4. (C) While we act cavalierly on issues of grave
concern to him, we had the temerity to demand he
follow our lead on issues important to us, Obasanjo
asserted. Citing the recent Cuba resolution before the
UN Human Rights Commission, Obasanjo railed that the
USG expected him to change long-standing GON policy on
Cuba, a traditional friend, because the issue was
important to the White House. Yet when he asked the
USG to change its established policy on debt, he
received a cold shoulder. Obasanjo emphasized he was
as much a leader of a nation as President Bush. If we
wanted him to continue carrying our water in
international fora, we should reciprocate on issues of
importance to Nigeria.


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LET'S TALK
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5. (C) When the Ambassador stated the need for
frequent dialogue to more clearly define areas of
convergent and divergent views, Obasanjo agreed but
stressed that Zimbabwe was off-limits. Iterating a
theme of their April meeting (reftel),Obasanjo told
Ambassador Jeter that all of Africa was looking to
Nigeria on Zimbabwe. He had to ensure that whatever
decision he took would be seen as truly Nigeria's and
not an imposition from the West. "So if you try to
talk to me about Zimbabwe, I will cut you off," he
pledged. Obasanjo added that the USG linkage of NEPAD
and Zimbabwe was wrong-minded. He also blanched the
USG would attempt to tell him what NEPAD's mandate
should be when he was one of NEPAD's architects.
(Comment: Obasanjo's statements imply a significant
difference between his vision of the peer review
mechanism and what we assume it will be. End
comment.)


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LIBERIA, AGAIN!
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6. (C) Obasanjo related that a significant portion of
the Yamoussoukro NEPAD conference was devoted to
Liberia. He stated that President Taylor was in
serious trouble but had himself to blame; there was
little sympathy among ECOWAS Heads of State for their
colleague in Monrovia. Obasanjo did not relish being
named, along with ECOWAS Chairman Wade, to mediate a
cease-fire in Liberia. Obasanjo also claimed that Wade
was piqued after Taylor had spat in his soup by
insisting on continuation of the "Rabat Process"
instead of the proposed intra-ECOWAS diplomacy under
Wade's leadership. Giving the impression he did not
intend to invest significant energy in this endeavor,
Obasanjo remarked that Taylor had rejected his attempt
to reconcile the GOL with its political opposition
when such a process might have forestalled the LURD
emergence. I did my best to bring Taylor to Abuja for
talks, but he would not come." Now Taylor's hubris
had led to a much stronger challenge to his
government's survival.



7. (C) Obasanjo also denied rumors Nigeria had
furnished weapons to Taylor. He pointed north to
Tripoli as a possible source and said he would ask
Quaddafi who has been surprisingly forthright when
questioned about Liberia in the past. (Comment:
Obasanjo seems to have warmed to the task since the
meeting. On May 22, ECOWAS ExSec Chambas informed
Ambassador that he had a two-hour meeting with
Obasanjo to discuss an ECOWAS team of military
advisors visit to Liberia to assess and investigate
the deteriorating security situation there. In a May
23 aside, NSA Aliyu Mohammed told the Ambassador the
GON had convinced Taylor to come to Abuja for talks
about his situation at home. End Comment.)


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ELECTIONS AT HOME -- A PIECE OF CAKE/ A SLICE OF GOD
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8. (C) Clearly not wanting to engage in a detailed
discussion about internal politics, Obasanjo
nonetheless became more relaxed when Ambassador Jeter
asked about security preparations for the upcoming
elections, particularly local government contests in
August. Downplaying recent incidents of localized
electoral violence, Obasanjo said security
preparations were in train. Predicting no major
trouble, he averred, "God and we" would make sure that
electioneering did not run amok. Obasanjo expressed
confidence that he would be reelected. On his vision
for a second term, he stated that his first term was
devoted to excising the "debris" clogging the system
due to years of misrule. In the next term, he would
stick to the same programs and policies but would be
able to move faster because of the ground clearing
done this term.


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COMMENT
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9. (C) In many respects a continuation of the meeting
reported reftel, this session did not break new
ground. However, it brought into sharper focus
Obasanjo's edginess regarding lack of progress on debt
relief. There is no reason not to take him at his
word. Unless there is a better meeting of the minds
on the debt question, Obasanjo and the GON will
increasingly become more difficult partners.
JETER