NIGERIA: May 6-17 ROUND-UP

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001496

SIPDIS


E.O.12958: DECL: 5/6/12
TAGS: PGOV KDEM PREL NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: May 6-17 ROUND-UP


REF: ABUJA 1323


CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR HOWARD F. JETER. REASON 1.5
(B) AND (D).



1. (U) Summary. Political parties rail against the new
Electoral Commission guidelines for party registration
(paras 2-5). The Attorney General questions the
constitutionality of the political compromise
postponing local government elections to August (6-
10). Presidential allies in the House of
Representatives initiate impeachment motion against
Speaker Na'Abba (11-12). End Summary.




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INEC GUIDELINES DRAW IRE
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2. (C) The May 7 meeting between the political parties
and the Independent Electoral Commission (INEC) about
the guidelines for party registration was acrimonious.
According to the guidelines, the groups that filed
documents stating their intent to register as a
political party could participate in the upcoming
local elections. However, only those capturing at
least ten percent of the local government votes in 24
states would be allowed to contest the 2003 state and
national elections. Most party representatives at the
meeting complained the guidelines were
unconstitutional and designed to bar their
participation in the 2003 elections. The National
Legal Advisor for the Alliance for Democracy (AD)
recalled a leader of one of the political associations
expostulating that INEC was squandering its
opportunity to perform a great service to Nigerian
democracy. Instead, by promulgating rules effectively
barring multi-party participation, INEC was committing
a great crime that would result in "blood being
spilled."



3. (C) The AD official claimed many attendees were
incensed because they knew INEC had not drafted the
guidelines. He asserted the guidelines were drafted in
the Presidency and given to INEC, with INEC, in turn,
handing them to the parties as an accomplished fact.
He groused the meeting called by INEC was inaccurately
billed as a consultation when, in fact, it was a pro
forma meeting that gave the appearance of dialogue but
had the substance of a dictate.



4. (C) An APP official told Poloff that many in his
party believed the guidelines were a ploy. As
currently drafted, the guidelines made it hard for any
party, including the ruling PDP, to register. He
believed the Presidency actually wants many parties to
contest in 2003 in order to keep the opposition
fragmented. The current guidelines were intended to
generate strong reaction from the new political
associations. Then, INEC would present more lenient
guidelines. This would demonstrate that INEC was
"impartial" because it listened to the opposition
while actually serving the Obasanjo electoral strategy
of splintering the opposition.



5. (C) Comment: Even by local standards, the
machinations attributed to the INEC by the APP
representative seem exceedingly obtuse. The AD
official's assertion that the Presidency not INEC
authored the guidelines seems more realistic. In any
event, both statements reveal a deep distrust of INEC
that does not portend well for the future. For
elections to be credible, INEC must work hard to gain
trust and be seen as a genuinely impartial
administrator of the process.


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IS DEAL ON LOCAL ELECTIONS UNCONSTITUTIONAL?
--------------



6. (C) Last month's deal between State Governors,
State Assembly leaders and the President to reschedule
local government elections from May 18 to August 10
was a stroke of pragmatism in face of an impending
emergency. INEC, which must administer voter and party
registration, could not complete both tasks in time.
May 18 elections would have disenfranchised the
millions of voters who have become eligible since the
1999 voters roll was published. The elections also
would have barred the many still-to-be registered
political associations. These significant exclusions
would have undermined the legitimacy of the local
government exercise. Several lawsuits were filed to
stop the elections. According to opposition party
officials, some hot-heads within the opposition groups
were contemplating more muscular ways of disrupting
the exercise.



7. (C) Notwithstanding its utility in averting
confrontation, the deal rests on uncertain legal
footing. The bargain hinges on state governments
enacting legislation to establish caretaker
commitments to manage local government during the
period between the May 29 termination of the current
officers' tenures and the August election date.
However, as stated reftel, the caretaker commitments
are of questionable constitutionality. In a May 6
public statement, Nigeria's Attorney General agreed
with that analysis. Attorney General Agabi said the
formation of the caretaker committees violated the
constitutional guarantee of democratically elected
local government.



8. (C) While making a big public splash, Agabi's
statement carried no legal weight. Calling caretaker
committees illegal does not make them so. A court must
do that and Agabi has declined to go to court on the
matter. However, his pronouncement should encourage
others to contest the workout. The current elected
local councilmen are prime candidates to grab this
cudgel.



9. (C) Apparently, some current local government
officials were spurred by Agabi's statement. The May
16 Vanguard reported that, in a suit filed by a local
government official, a Federal Court in Benue State
enjoined the State Assembly from establishing the
post-May 29 steering committees in that state. Similar
lawsuits now may surface in other states. If so,
Nigeria could be faced with a hodge-podge of some
states establishing the committees with other states
having vacant local government councils. Faced with
this prospect and the potential confusion that would
ensue, the constitutionality of the deal postponing
local government elections might be on its way to the
Supreme Court.



10. (C) Meanwhile, some politicians are shaking their
heads at Agabi's legalism. AD National Chairman
Abdulkadir admitted to PolCouns the proposed steering
committees were unconstitutional, but a lesser evil.
The other alternative would have been hasty elections
that disenfranchised millions of voters and several
political parties. Confronted with either the brief,
three-month violation of the guarantee of democratic
local government or the irreparable abrogation of the
right to vote and participate if the elections took
place in May, Abdulkadir had hoped the courts would
purposely delay ruling on any suit filed against the
deal until after the August election, thus rendering
the suit moot. In Benue, this hope has already been
dashed.


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BACK AT YOU!
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11. (C) After months of House Speaker Ghali Na'Abba
sniping at the President and orchestrating special
sessions criticizing Obasanjo's performance, the
President's men in the House have responded in kind.
Obasanjo supporters in the House moved to impeach
Na'Abba for alleged corruption. A reporter who covers
the House described the session as tumultuous. After
the motion was presented, Na'Abba tried to address the
House but was shouted down by opponents. When the
frustrated Speaker attempted to leave the floor,
opponents rushed the door physically barring his exit.
There was plenty of commotion and some fists were
thrown as opponents and allies pushed toward the exit
in what the reporter called very puerile behavior by
both sides.



12. (C) Attacking the veracity of the allegations
against Na'Abba, his allies in the House charged that
the Presidency bribed House members to present the
impeachment motion. The Speaker's followers claimed
House Members were promised several million Naira each
and assured of reelection next year if they backed the
impeachment motion. (Comment: Na'Abba has attempted to
parlay his open attacks on the President into making
him the rallying point for Obasanjo's detractors
within the PDP. Na'Abba hoped public feuding with
Obasanjo would buoy his long-shot presidential
aspirations. Na'Abba had to realize that, as the
President's most visible critic among PDP elected
officials, he would become a political lighting rod
after the President declared his intention to reclaim
the PDP nomination. The President's strategists seek
to preclude serious challenge inside the PDP. Thus,
they want to silence Na'Abba. Recently, Governor
Dariye of Plateau State (PDP) told PolOffs that
Na'Abba had committed political treason against the
party and that moves were afoot to make sure he was
not re-elected to the House.
JETER