NIGERIA: ABUJA ROUND-UP APRIL 8-19

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 ABUJA 001232

SIPDIS


E.O.12958: DECL: 4/19/07
TAGS: PGOV PREL EAID ECON PREF NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ABUJA ROUND-UP APRIL 8-19

CLASSIFIED BY POL/ECON COUNSELOR BRIAN BROWNE. REASON
1.5 (B) AND (D).



1. (C) Summary. The States' decision to hold local
government elections May 18 has sparked controversy
and additional lawsuits which apparently the Supreme
Court will have to resolve (paras 2-4). Canadian PM
Chretien visited Abuja for talks centering on NEPAD
and the G-8 with Obasanjo and several other African
Heads of States (paras 5-6). Former Head of State
Buhari and current Speaker of the House Na' Abba may
be weighing their presidential prospects (paras 7-10).
Works Minister Anenih reportedly cut an "incumbents
deal" with PDP State Governors whereby the Governors
and President Obasanjo will support each other's
reelection (para 11). Obasanjo's critics in the
National Assembly held sessions on the President's
alleged transgressions of the constitution (para 12).
Current rumors have Obasanjo making his reelection
announcement over the weekend (para 13). Return of
IDPs to Taraba and Nasarawa States is not going
smoothly (para 14).


--------------
LOCAL GOVERNMENT ELECTION TURMOIL
--------------



2. (U) In the wake of the March 28 Supreme Court
ruling prohibiting the National Assembly from shifting
local government elections from 2002 to 2003, the
States' decision to hold those elections May 18 has
sparked a hornet's nest of political activity. This
tight schedule will not provide sufficient time for
registration of new voters and new political parties
for the local contests. After convening a special
joint session, the National Assembly filed suit in the
Supreme Court to bar elections on that date. The
Assembly is arguing that, without updating the voter's
list and allowing for new parties to register, holding
elections in May will unconstitutionally
disenfranchise the millions of new voters who reached
voting age since the 1999 contests. The Assembly
further contends the election effectively will
undermine freedom of association if new political
parties are not allowed to participate. Also, ten
young adults obtained an injunction against the
election in the Federal Court of Appeals on the
grounds that their right to vote will be abrogated if
they are not allowed to register and vote in the
elections.



3. (U) The political parties have also gotten into the
act. The PDP, the party with the most resources and
already in control of most local government areas, is
relatively more prepared and better situated than the
APP and AD. Predictably, the PDP announced that the
early date suited it just fine. However, both APP and
AD have complained about the date, threatening to file
suit themselves. While the parties continue to
complain, Embassy contacts indicate the parties are
scrabbling to prepare, in case the May 18 date holds.
Of course, the currently unregistered parties threaten
court action to postpone the election unless they can
be registered. (Note: The Independent Electoral
Commission (INEC) has announced that it will
promulgate procedures for party registration very
soon. INEC has also stated that parties hoping to
register should file a letter of intent to register
with INEC. If the procedures facilitate some sort of
"fast track" registration, the new parties may get a
break. Conversely, if the guidelines are onerous, the
new parties will probably file suit as well. End
note.)



4. (C) For the second time this year, the Supreme
Court apparently will be asked to clarify and
hopefully bring a semblance of order and pragmatism to
what has become a confused, and, in part,
contradictory web of electoral laws and procedures.
Because all political stakeholders continue to be
fixated on their own limited self-interests, there is
insufficient time to have the type of prolonged
negotiations needed to script a political compromise
among the numerous state, local and national actors
that have roles in this drama. The Supreme Court seems
uniquely placed, the only institution that objectively
can weigh both the law and equities of the political
stakeholders to fashion a remedy reconciling two
constitutional imperatives: 1.) The deadline on the
tenure of local governments and 2.) The right of
citizens to participate in the electoral process,
either as voters or officer seekers.


--------------
A MAPLE LEAF IN ABUJA
--------------



5. (C) Canadian PM Chretien visited Nigeria from April
4-7. According to the Canadian High Commission in
Abuja, the meetings between Chretien and Obasanjo went
well. Their discussions focused on NEPAD, with
Chretien using his visit to publicly and privately
emphasize human rights, rule of law and good
governance as the keys to the kingdom of private
investment and development. Build NEPAD on these
fundamentals and investors will come, Obasanjo was
told. Obasanjo agreed, in part, recounted the
Canadian diplomat but also repined that the West
needed to be a bit more generous with the carrots and
a little less eager to wield its economic sticks.
Both Obasanjo and Chretien echoed these themes during
a lunch with the Presidents of Sierra Leone, Benin,
Cote d'Ivoire and Ghana. During the visit, Obasanjo
thanked the Prime Minister for supporting the "wait
and see" position on Zimbabwean elections adopted at
the Commonwealth Summit in Australia.



6. (C) The Canadian High Commission believed a
personal bond had developed between the two leaders
prior to the visit, given their many phone calls to
each other about Zimbabwe before and after the
Commonwealth Summit. This explained the agreement to
have a 45-minute one-on-one between Obasanjo and
Chretien only. A call on Mohammed Ibn Chambas, the
Executive Secretary of ECOWAS and his staff was
disappointing, we were told. The ECOWAS crew missed an
opportunity to woo the Canadian leader by failing to
lay out for him a glimpse of their vision for the
organization. Instead, they presented the Prime
Minister a laundry list of assistance requests without
offering a compelling reason why Canada should
consider the request.


-------------- --------------
MORE CONTENDERS FOR THE PRESIDENCY BEGIN TO EMERGE
-------------- --------------



7. (U) While President Obasanjo reportedly is close to
divulging his reelection intentions (para 14),another
former military Head of State whose surname begins
with a "B" reportedly is on the verge of announcing
his intentions. The former general is Muhammad Buhari,
not Ibrahim Babangida. According to a press statement
by the Director of a group calling itself the
"Campaign for Buhari 2003," the former leader may
announce his intention this month to join the APP and
seek its nomination. Buhari has railed that the
current Administration's ineptitude is steering the
country into a deep ditch. Only a man of outstanding
caliber can save the nation from this fate, he has
said. Sound familiar? It should. Similar mots were
employed when Buhari toppled the elected Shagari
government in 1983.



8. (U) Meanwhile, another son of the North, House
Speaker Ghali Na'Abba appears to be positioning
himself as well. Members of Na'Abba's clique in the
House reportedly have started a not so quiet campaign
in that Chamber to get other members to endorse the
Speaker to challenge Obasanjo for the PDP mantle.
Other House members, not so enthralled with the
Speaker, have complained that Na'Abba is now using his
position to advance his personal interests and not
those of the House, let alone the country's.



9. (C) Comment: That Buhari and Na'Abba hail from the
North demonstrate how much Obasanjo's standing in that
region has been shaken. While the noise around Buhari
and Na'Abba shows Obasanjo's weakness, it does not
mean the duo from Kano will make particularly strong
candidates. Known for his mailed-fist style of
leadership as Head of State, Buhari is as a staunch
religionist who has reportedly said that Nigeria's
president should be a Muslim. This religious litmus
test will not sit well with Southerners. Moreover, the
other "B" Head of State, Babangida, has no love for
Buhari and would likely work against him. Buhari's
appeal is probably limited areas in the North but if
he chooses to run he can hurt Obasanjo in that region.



10. (C) Comment Cont. Although he has gained notoriety
during the past several months due to his running feud
with the President on various issues, Na'Abba is still
considered a relative newcomer and a political
youngster (he is in his forties). While the Speaker
harbors ambitions, a serious Na'Abba candidacy seems
remote. Some observers think Na'Abba is playing
hardball now in order to soften Obasanjo so that they
can cut a deal later that would secure the Speakers
position in the House. However, veteran journalist Ben
Asante told PolCouns recently that Na'Abba was being
encouraged by "Northern elders" to seek every
opportunity to kick up dust in order to make
Obasanjo's path to PDP re-nomination less visible.
Additionally, the reports about these two candidates
being poised to enter the race may encourage others to
consider tossing their hats into the ring. This
dynamic does not bode well for pro-Obasanjo
strategists who have been working to give their boss,
at least within his own party, the aura of a consensus
candidate. End Comment.



11. (U) As part of the attempt to solidify Obasanjo's
base in the PDP, Obasanjo's men met with the 20 PDP
governors last week at the home of Works Minister Tony
Anenih, Obasanjo's chief deal-maker. According to the
Guardian, outspoken Abia State Governor Orji Kalu
emerged from the meeting, claiming an agreement was
struck whereby the Governors and Obasanjo would
support each other's reelection bids.


--------------
A FIRE IN THE HOUSE!
--------------



12. (C) Not to be outdone by Anenih, the President's
opponents in the National Assembly have tried to
increase the heat on Obasanjo. After the joint session
on the local elections (para 2),an ad hoc joint
committee, chaired by APP Senator Lawali Shuaibu, was
established to investigate alleged violations of the
Constitution committed by the President. The
committee's deliberations sparked talk of impeachment.
Although little will probably come of this, the timing
of this maneuver probably was not coincidental. It
looks like an attempt, at the very least, to
precipitate a drizzle on the Obasanjo reelection
parade Anenih is busily organizing.


--------------
THE OBASANJO COUNTDOWN
--------------



13. (U) While Americans were preoccupied with their
tax returns on April 15, Obasanjo was expected to
announce his intentions on that date. However, the
deadline passed without a peep from him. Now, the PDP
is reportedly organizing a rally in Abuja for April 19
or 20. Current speculation is that Obasanjo will make
his announcement then.


--------------
BENUE IDPS -- WHERE IS THE WELCOME WAGON?
--------------



14. (U) NGOs in Benue have informed us that the return
of mostly Tiv IDPs to their homes in Taraba and
Nasarawa states has not gone as hoped. Logistical
support for their return has been wanting in many
instances. More importantly, "peace agreements" with
the other ethnic groups have not been reached in some
communities, causing the welcome home to be less than
warm. Newspapers report several returnees being killed
in Taraba by ethnic Jukuns. Over 50 families returned
to Agasha camp in Benue after being turn away from
their homes in Wukari, Taraba. (Wukari is the
cultural home of the Jukun). Hundreds of IDPs returned
to Daudu and Ukpain refugee camps from their homes in
Nasarawa after an angry welcome from the other ethnic
groups there. Reportedly, seven people were killed in
the Awe local government area. (Comment: These reports
are discomforting and will deter others from
attempting to return home. For this mostly rural
population, the inability to return home means they
will miss an important planting cycle, the
consequences of which will not only be felt now but
also when these people come up empty-handed at harvest
time. We will continue to monitor the situation.
Emboffs plan to visit the area in the near future.
End Comment.)
ANDREWS