NIGERIA: ELECTIONEERING IN NIGERIA; PERCEPTIONS

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001159

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 1.6X6
TAGS: PGOV NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ELECTIONEERING IN NIGERIA; PERCEPTIONS
BEGIN TO SOUR

REF: A. ABUJA 829

B. ABUJA 979

C. ABUJA 886

D. ABUJA 680

E. ABUJA 1029


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter; Reason 1.6X6.



1. (C) SUMMARY: The Electoral Law, Electoral Commissioners,
and funding for the Electoral Commission all have one thing
in common: The actions taken by the Obasanjo Administration
on these key electoral issues, however innocent, raise the
perception of possible early election rigging in Nigeria. END
SUMMARY.



2. (C) The election season has already begun in Nigeria.
Some candidates for the Presidency have already declared, and
President Obasanjo is expected to announce his plans for 2003
soon. Tensions have started to rise as potential candidates
and their supporters begin to harshly and vociferously
criticize the Administration. History and reality dictate
that the 2003 elections are likely to include some
less-than-democratic practices, such as vote-buying (packets
of rice and 200 Naira notes). However, we have already begun
to see some troubling decisions by the Administration that,
even if made for the most innocent reasons, give rise to the
perception that the President is stacking the deck.



3. (C) The paradigm was begun with the controversial
Electoral Act. Since the same Act placed local polls after
state and national polls in 2003, it prohibited new parties
from participating in state and national elections until

2007. Such an action could be defended as limiting the
elections to a manageable number of parties. However, the
Governors reacted strongly and brought a case before the
Supreme Court, as it is in their interest to pack new Local
Government Councils with members who can turn the local
governments into electoral machines that are supportive of
the Governors. National Assembly members seeking more
financially lucrative gubernatorial posts and an
Administration seeking to replace certain governors to
improve reelection prospects, of course, sought a different
outcome. The Supreme Court ruled on March 28 that the
timetable in the Electoral Law was unconstitutional (Ref E).
Thus, the Governors won round one, and the Supreme Court
affirmed it constitutional role. (However, it is entirely
unclear that the Independent National Electoral Commission
and the state electoral commissions are prepared to carry out
local government elections as early as May 18.)


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WELCOME TO THE MACHINE
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4. (C) President Obasanjo's decision to fire 34 Resident
Electoral Commissioners (RECs) of the INEC was equally
disturbing for many. While the President has the legal
prerogative to change RECs, this action implies a desire to
exert greater control over state elections (since most of the
released officers were appointed before his Administration).
Lame claims from the PDP that there was no ulterior motive to
this action have not resonated. Count the APP among those
who suspect the Obasanjo Administration's electoral
preparations are less than even-handed.



5. (C) APP National Chairman Yusuf Ali told reporters that
his party would sue the Federal Government over the hiring of
34 new Commissioners to replace the 34 Obasanjo fired several
weeks ago. (Note: Obasanjo fired all but three of 37 INEC
State Commissioners resident in the 36 States and the Federal
Capitol Territory. The Commissioners are the top INEC
officials in their jurisdiction and are responsible for the
preparation of the national election in their locales. End
Note.) The APP head claimed that the suit was necessary
because the new Commissioners were PDP partisans who could
not be trusted to run impartial elections.



6. (C) Many of the new Commissioners are PDP loyalists and,
in at least one state, a member of the PDP state executive
was appointed to fill the INEC post. But more importantly,
according to one source, the President has taken steps to
make sure PDP party officials in the states and at the
national level are Obasanjo supporters to prevent threats
from within his own party. Commenting to PolMilOff, a PDP
insider who worked on the 1999 Obasanjo campaign said, "We
may have to pay someone to challenge the President. Any real
opponent would consider the chances of winning and decide not
to run. After all, it is hard to lose when you control both
the players and the referees."


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INEC: NO MONEY; NO VOTE
=======================



7. (C) The Administration has yet to release the 8-billion
Naira (USD 75m) promised by President Obasanjo for INEC to
begin voter registration and other election preparations.
(NOTE: NSA Aliyu Mohammed told the Ambassador that the
Administration is aware of N119 billion that has been
allocated by the President but is "stuck" in the Central
Bank, inferring that this was an effort to sabotage the
Obasanjo Administration. It is possible that the INEC monies
are part of these delayed/missing funds. END NOTE). INEC
has blamed the lack of funding for the delays in its work,
and has begun to solicit funds from donors. As tight as the
Nigerian budget is, it is hard to ignore the fact that
incomplete registration of voters, particularly in the rural
north, will serve the reelection efforts of the
Administration. Unless new rolls are completed, an important
percentage of the voting population, those who have turned 18
since the last elections, will be disenfranchised from the
polls. Moreover, the names of those who have died since the
last registration exercise will be fair game for those who
might choose to vote more than once.


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COMMENT
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8. (C) The validity and outcome of an election is often
decided long before voting day. The Obasanjo Administration
is racking up a series of decisions that give rise to the
perception of possible early rigging. As sensitive as
election issues are likely to be, early discussion with the
GON about the importance of transparent procedures and the
importance of how GON actions are perceived is critical. We
plan to do just that (See septel on the Mission's Elections
Working Group).
Jeter