NIGERIA: ETHNICITY DRIVING LOCAL POLITICS IN KOGI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 ABUJA 001033

SIPDIS


E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/08/2012
TAGS: PGOV PINS EFIN NI
SUBJECT: NIGERIA: ETHNICITY DRIVING LOCAL POLITICS IN KOGI

REF: ABUJA 829


Classified by Ambassador Howard F. Jeter. Reason: 1.5(b)



1. (U) Communal conflict and electoral politics are
inextricably inter-linked in much of Nigeria. Paras 13-15 of
reftel offer a brief general analysis of this insidious
danger to the country's nascent democracy. There follows a
specific illustrative case-in-point.



2. (U) Nigeria's Constitution establishes a formula for
dividing the money flowing into the Federation Account among
the three tiers of government -- federal, state and local.
When one state is divided into two (for example, the division
of old Bauchi into new Bauchi and Gombe),the two descendant
states together get more federal revenue than did their
common ancestor, even though total landmass and population
are unchanged. While many factors influence revenue
allocation (population, land area, tax base, etc.),one key
criterion has always been "equality of states." This means a
significant share of the revenue available for distribution
to the states (historically 25-30 percent) is divided equally
among them. The result is a tendency to divide Nigeria into
ever more numerous, ever-smaller states. Since independence,
Nigeria has gone from three regions, to four, to 12 states,
to 19, 21, 30, and, most recently, 36.



3. (C) The common citizens of the new states get little or
no benefit from creation of new states. In fact, they
usually lose. Although the two new states together have more
federally-allocated revenue than their predecessor, demands
against that revenue are higher still. Elites come first,
and that means schools, roads and clinics take a back seat to
foreign travel, governor's mansions, offices, cars and an
entirely new state-level civil service.



4. (U) The growth of government in the past decade has been
greatest at the local level, however. While the number of
states has not quite doubled, local government authorities
(LGAs) have almost tripled (from 272 to 774). The same logic
that drives state creation impels minting new LGAs.
Moreover, ethnicity concerns, often veiled in state-creation
debates, are right out in the open. LGAs get some revenue
from their states and some from Abuja. A few LGAs generate
significant revenue internally, but most would wither and die
without state and federal money.



5. (U) Kogi State Governor Prince Abubakar Audu, an Igala,
recently decided to create 25 new LGAs (bringing Kogi's total
to 46). However, the majority of the new LGAs (14) were
carved out of Igala-land. Areas dominated by Ibiris and
Kabbas (the other two major Kogi tribes) together with 11 new
LGAs, bringing their collective total to 23. The Igala also
now have 23, even though they comprise just over one-third of
the population. Moreover, Audu put the Ajaokuta steelworks
in an Igala-dominated LGA, even though Ajaokuta itself is
traditional Ibiri territory.



6. (U) Because resources and patronage flow to LGAs, Kogi's
non-Igala inhabitants were upset. Okenne, the largest
Ibiri-dominated town, erupted in violence during the week of
March 11. Townspeople ordered the Ibiri Commissioners
(members of Audu's cabinet) to resign. When they refused,
their houses were torched. The Army records unit based at
Lokoja was called in to restore order and reportedly did so
without incident.



7. (C) Unrest has, unfortunately, continued. There are now
reports of between four and ten deaths associated with LGA
creation in Kogi. Kogi did not follow constitutional
requirements for creation of new LGAs (see below),but Audu's
Igala kinsmen are unlikely to take kindly to the near-certain
court ruling against their new patronage vehicles. More
unrest is nearly certain. Meanwhile, Kogi local governance,
already in disarray because of funding shortfalls and
corruption, is said now to be in a shambles, with no funds
for the "take-off" of the new LGAs and the existing ones
uncertain about the extent of their authority and
responsibilities.



8. (U) A number of other states have also created new LGAs,
among them Ebonyi, Ogun, Niger and Kebbi. Governor Bola
Tinubu of Lagos has vowed to do the same. While the GON had
refused to acknowledge the new entities, it had heretofore
trod gently. Conflict over the creation of new LGAs, or
control over existing ones, has been a driving force behind
communal conflict in the Niger Delta. In the wake of the
Kogi violence, however, Attorney General Godwin Kanu Agabi
March 14 declared all new LGAs illegal, claiming that no
state government had followed proper procedures when
establishing them. Whether Agabi's declaration will have any
force of law remains to be seen. A court in Ebonyi ruled
against the state government March 21 because it, like Kogi,
manifestly failed to meet the constitution's requirements.
However, Niger appears to have taken the proper
constitutional course, and Agabi's rejection of its new LGAs
would appear more difficult to justify. Continued resort to
the courts is certain, though broad and authoritative
decisions are doubtless many months away. Meanwhile,
governors who see their political futures enhanced by LGA
creation will likely ignore Agabi and blame any resource
shortfalls on the federal government.
Jeter