Identifier
Created
Classification
Origin
01TUNIS325
2001-02-09 08:57:00
CONFIDENTIAL
Embassy Tunis
Cable title:  

GOVERNMENT SHAKE-UP: OBSERVERS SEE INCREASINGLY

Tags:  PGOV PREL ELAB KDEM PHUM TS 
pdf how-to read a cable
P 090857Z FEB 01
FM AMEMBASSY TUNIS
TO SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5754
INFO AMEMBASSY ALGIERS 
AMEMBASSY AMMAN 
AMEMBASSY CAIRO 
AMEMBASSY RABAT 
AMEMBASSY PARIS 
AMCONSUL CASABLANCA
C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TUNIS 000325 

FOR NEA/ENA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2005
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB KDEM PHUM TS
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT SHAKE-UP: OBSERVERS SEE INCREASINGLY
TECHNOCRATIC CABINET AS SIGN OF BEN ALI'S TIGHT GRIP ON
DECISION-MAKING.

REF: TUNIS 191

(U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

-------
SUMMARY
-------

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 03 TUNIS 000325

FOR NEA/ENA

E.O. 12958: DECL: 08/29/2005
TAGS: PGOV PREL ELAB KDEM PHUM TS
SUBJECT: GOVERNMENT SHAKE-UP: OBSERVERS SEE INCREASINGLY
TECHNOCRATIC CABINET AS SIGN OF BEN ALI'S TIGHT GRIP ON
DECISION-MAKING.

REF: TUNIS 191

(U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR FOR REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (C) IN NUMEROUS CONVERSATIONS SINCE THE JANUARY 23
GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLING (REFTEL),TUNISIAN AND DIPLOMATIC
OBSERVERS HAVE ALMOST INVARIABLY DESCRIBED THE SHAKE-UP AS
SOMETHING OF A GAME OF MUSICAL CHAIRS AND A SIGN OF PRESIDENT
BEN ALI'S FIRM PERSONAL CONTROL OVER THE POLITICAL SITUATION
IN THE COUNTRY. SEVERAL HAVE DESCRIBED THE SHIFTS AS
INDICATING THAT THE CABINET IS BECOMING INCREASINGLY
TECHNOCRATIC, BUT ARE OF TWO MINDS ABOUT THE IMPLICATION OF
THIS. ON ONE HAND, MINISTERS AND, ESPECIALLY, SECRETARIES OF
STATE (JUNIOR MINISTERS) ARE INCREASINGLY INDIVIDUALS WHO
HAVE COME UP THROUGH THE BUREAUCRACY AND ARE SEEN AS
COMPETENT IN THEIR FIELD, A PLUS FOR EFFECTIVE IMPLEMENTATION
OF PROGRAMS. ON THE OTHER HAND, THAT MEANS, ACCORDING TO
SOME OBSERVERS, THAT THEY ARE ONLY IMPLEMENTERS OF POLICY
DECISIONS MADE BY THE PRESIDENT, NOT DECISION-MAKERS OR
POLITICAL FIGURES THEMSELVES, MEANING A GREATER CONSOLIDATION
OF POLITICAL DECISIONS IN BEN ALI'S HANDS. WE SHARE THE
ASSESSMENT OF MANY THAT THE MOST INFLUENTIAL FIGURES IN THE
TUNISIAN LEADERSHIP ARE OUTSIDE THE CABINET. END SUMMARY.

--------------
INCREASINGLY TECHNOCRATIC
CABINET--FOR BETTER OR WORSE
--------------


2. (C) THERE HAS BEEN CONSIDERABLE SPECULATION ABOUT
PRESIDENT BEN ALI'S JANUARY 23 GOVERNMENT RESHUFFLING, IN
WHICH THREE SENIOR MINISTERS LEFT GOVERNMENT, NINE MOVED
LATERALLY TO OTHER POSITIONS, AND 11 NEW JUNIOR MINISTER
POSITIONS WERE CREATED (FOR A TOTAL OF 30 FULL MINISTERS AND
24 JUNIOR MINISTERS). SOME OBSERVERS, BOTH TUNISIAN AND
FOREIGN DIPLOMATS, DESCRIBED THE CHANGES AS LITTLE MORE THAN
MUSICAL CHAIRS, BUT MANY SAW A PURPOSE BEHIND THE JUGGLING.
AN EGYPTIAN EMBASSY OFFICER AND FRENCH EMBASSY POLITICAL
COUNSELOR EACH OPINED THAT BEN ALI ENGAGED IN SUCH JUGGLING
BOTH IN ORDER TO DEMONSTRATE THAT HE REMAINS FULLY IN CHARGE
AND, ON A MORE POSITIVE NOTE, TO GIVE BROADER EXPERIENCE IN
GOVERNMENT TO SEASONED MINISTERS. WHILE BOTH COLLEAGUES

PRAISED THE COMPETENCE AND EXPERTISE OF THE INCREASINGLY
TECHNOCRATIC CABINET, THEY SAW IT AS A CLEAR SIGN THAT ALL
POLICY DECISIONS ARE MADE BY THE PRESIDENT IN CONSULTATION
WITH A CLOSE CIRCLE OF ADVISERS, MANY OF WHOM ARE NOT
MINISTERS. THE MINISTERS ARE THERE TO IMPLEMENT DECISIONS
MADE ELSEWHERE.


3. (C) ALONG THE SAME LINES, TAIEB ZAHAR, PUBLISHER OF THE
WEEKLY INDEPENDENT MAGAZINE, "REALITES," TOLD LABATT THAT HE
SEES THE LATEST RESHUFFLING AS THE CONSOLIDATION OF BEN ALI'S
GRADUAL MOVE TO FILL THE CABINET WITH TECHNOCRATS WHO ARE
GOOD AT IMPLEMENTING DECISIONS BUT PLAY NO REAL POLITICAL
ROLE. HE SAID THAT WITH THE DEPARTURE FROM THE CABINET OF
MINISTER OF SOCIAL AFFAIRS, CHADLI NEFFATI, THERE WAS
VIRTUALLY NO ONE LEFT (EXCEPT MINISTER OF DEFENSE DALY JAZI
AND MINISTER OF EDUCATION, MONDER ROUISSI) WHO CAME INTO THE
CABINET FROM OUTSIDE THE BUREAUCRACY. THERE IS NO ONE, HE
ARGUED, WHO ROSE THROUGH A PRIVATE ASSOCIATION (COMMENT: THE
TWO WOMEN MINISTERS ARE AN EXCEPTION, AS THEY ROSE THROUGH
THE RCD-AFFILIATED NATIONAL UNION OF TUNISIAN WOMEN. END
COMMENT),THE LABOR UNION MOVEMENT, OR EVEN BUSINESS. ZAHAR
ARGUED THAT, EVEN IN OTHER NON-DEMOCRATIC COUNTRIES, ONE CAN
SEE WITHIN A CABINET EVIDENCE OF POLITICAL TENDENCIES OR
"FIEFDOMS," WHETHER REGIONAL OR PERSONAL, BUT THAT BEN ALI
HAS VIRTUALLY ELIMINATED ANYONE'S ABILITY TO BUILD ANY
INDEPENDENT POLITICAL OR EVEN REGIONAL LOYALTIES. ZAHAR
ARGUED THAT TECHNOCRATS ARE IMPORTANT TO IMPLEMENT THE
POLICY, BUT THAT POLITICAL AND SOCIAL CONSIDERATIONS SHOULD
BE IN THE MINISTERIAL MIX AS WELL.

--------------
OUT IS NEVER OUT
--------------


4. (C) WHILE MANY FOREIGN PRESS REPORTS ON THE SHAKE-UP
FOCUSED ON THE DEPARTURE OF FORMER MINISTER OF INTERIOR
ABDULLAH KALLEL OR THE MOVEMENT OF DALY JAZI FROM
PRESIDENTIAL COUNSELOR TO THE MINISTRY OF DEFENSE (NOT
CONSIDERED BY SOME A KEY PORTFOLIO BECAUSE, IN THIS VIEW,
PROFESSIONAL, APOLITICAL MILITARY OFFICERS IN SENIOR
POSITIONS ACTUALLY RUN THE MINISTRY),TUNISIAN OBSERVERS
GENERALLY DISMISS EFFORTS TO INTERPRET THESE MOVES AS
INDICATIVE OF AN INDIVIDUAL'S RISE OR FALL IN FAVOR. MANY
CURRENT AND FORMER GOVERNMENT MINISTERS HAVE MOVED IN AND OUT
OF THE CABINET OVER THE YEARS. OBSERVERS HAVE NOTED THAT
THIS FOLLOWS BEN ALI'S DESIRE TO KEEP PEOPLE MOVING. ZAHAR
AND MONDER KALAI, A PRESS OFFICER AT THE MINISTRY OF
EDUCATION, IN A SEPARATE CONVERSATION, EACH SAID HE BELIEVED
THAT BEN ALI WAS IN FACT MOVING SOME OF HIS CLOSEST
COUNSELORS OUT OF MINISTERIAL POSITIONS SO THAT THEY COULD
FOCUS ON ADVISING HIM WITHOUT BEING BURDENED BY THE
DAY-TO-DAY OPERATIONS OF A MINISTRY. ZAHAR CITED KALLEL AS
AN EXAMPLE: HE REMAINS A CLOSE SECURITY ADVISER TO BEN ALI,
BUT AS MINISTER OF INTERIOR WAS ALSO RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
ADMINISTRATION OF THE COUNTRY THROUGH THE GOVERNORS AND
DISTRICT COMMISSIONERS, ALL OF WHOM REPORT UP TO THE
MINISTER. KALAI WENT FURTHER, REFERRING TO BEN ALI'S
ADVISORS AS HIS "SHADOW CABINET," AND NAMED KALLEL, JAZY,
PRESIDENTIAL MINISTER/COUNSELOR ABDELAZIZ BEN DHIA, AND
PRESIDENTIAL SPOKESMAN ABDELWAHAB ABDULLAH AS AMONG THOSE WHO
PLAY KEY ROLES IN ASSISTING BEN ALI IN ARRIVING AT DECISIONS.
THIS WOULD TRACK WITH THE NOVEMBER 1999 DECISION TO MOVE
FORMER PRIME MINISTER HAMED KAROUI TO THE NON-SUBSTANTIVE
(BUT VERY SENIOR) POSITION OF VICE PRESIDENT OF THE RCD,
APPOINTING ECONOMIC TECHNOCRAT MOHAMED GHANNOUCHI (WHO ONLY
RECENTLY JOINED THE POLITBURO OF THE RCD) TO RUN THE
GOVERNMENT AS PRIME MINISTER.

--------------
SPECULATION ABOUT
PLANNING FOR 2004
--------------


5. (C) ZAHAR CITED ANOTHER FACTOR IN THE GOVERNMENT
RESHUFFLING AND THE SHAKE-UP IN LEADERSHIP AT THE RULING
PARTY THAT OCCURRED THE SAME WEEK: PLANNING FOR THE 2004
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS. IN THE LAST MONTH OR TWO SEVERAL
OPPOSITION LEADERS, RANGING FROM ISMAIL BOULAHIA OF THE
SOCIAL DEMOCRATIC MOVEMENT (MDS) AND MOHAMED BOUCHIHA OF THE
POPULAR UNITY PARTY (BOTH SEEN AS CLOSE TO THE GOVERNMENT) TO
RACHID KHACHANA OF THE PROGRESSIVE SOCIALIST RALLY (RSP) HAVE
TOLD LABATT THAT THEY BELIEVE BEN ALI IS PREPARING THE GROUND
WORK FOR A POPULAR REFERENDUM EXEMPTING HIM FROM THE
CONSTITUTIONAL THREE-TERM LIMIT AND "DEMANDING" THAT HE RUN
FOR A FOURTH (ELECTED) TERM IN 2004. UNDER THIS ANALYSIS,
ACCORDING TO BOTH ZAHAR AND KELAI (AND THE OPPOSITION
LEADERS) BEN ALI IS GATHERING AROUND HIMSELF THE PEOPLE WHO
WOULD ORGANIZE THIS MOVE POLITICALLY AND JURIDICALLY. ZAHAR
CITED BEN DHIA (WHOSE RESPONSIBILITIES AS CHIEF OF STAFF WERE
SPLIT OFF TO AHMED IYADH OEDERNI) AS THE "LAWYER" WHO WOULD
MAKE SURE ALL WAS DONE IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE LAW, WHILE
KALLEL PLAYS HIS TRADITIONAL ROLE OF "ENFORCER" (ASSISTED BY
SECRETARY OF STATE GHANZOUI, WHO REMAINS NUMBER TWO AT THE
MINISTRY) TO PREVENT DISSENT WITHIN THE PARTY OR OTHER RANKS.

--------------
RUMORS ABOUT PERSONAL/
REGIONAL TIES TO BEN ALI
--------------


6. (C) AS WITH ALL DEVELOPMENTS IN TUNISIA, THERE HAS BEEN A
WEALTH OF SPECULATION AND RUMOR ABOUT ALLEGED TIES CERTAIN
INDIVIDUALS HAVE TO THE PRESIDENT, HIS WIFE, OR HIS HOME
REGION OF SOUSSE. CONTACTS RANGING FROM EMBASSY FSN'S TO
EUROPEAN AMBASSADORS HAVE ATTRIBUTED ABDERAHIM ZOUARI'S
STICKING POWER (JUST NAMED AS MINISTER OF YOUTH AND SPORTS,
HE HAS BEEN SHIFTED FROM MINISTRY TO MINISTRY AND WAS
SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE RCD UNTIL DECEMBER 2000),DESPITE
LESS THAN STELLAR PERFORMANCES, TO THE FACT THAT HE SERVED AS
AMBASSADOR TO MOROCCO WHEN BEN ALI WAS MILITARY ATTACHE THERE
IN THE 1970'S. THE GENERAL ASSUMPTION (USUALLY STATED AS
"FACT") IS THAT ZOUARI MUST HAVE INFORMATION ABOUT BEN ALI'S
PERSONAL LIFE. TUNISIAN AND DIPLOMATIC OBSERVERS HAVE
REFERRED ALSO TO A POSSIBLE FAMILY RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN BEN
ALI AND THE NEW GOVERNOR OF THE CENTRAL BANK, AND BETWEEN
MRS. BEN ALI AND THE NEW DIRECTOR OF TUNISIE TELECOM.
SEVERAL INTERLOCUTORS SAID THAT THE NEW MINISTER OF INTERIOR
ROSE RAPIDLY THROUGH THE SERVICE BECAUSE OF TIME SPENT IN BEN
ALI'S HOME TOWN OF HAMMAM SOUSSE, ON THE CENTRAL COAST,
DURING WHICH HE WAS REPORTEDLY ATTENTIVE TO BEN ALI'S MOTHER.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


7. (C) APART FROM THE SPECULATION ABOUT PERSONAL TIES AND
RELATIONSHIPS, WHICH WE CANNOT VERIFY, MUCH OF THE ANALYSIS
MAKES SENSE. THERE IS A POSITIVE SIDE TO THE INCREASINGLY
TECHNOCRATIC ADMINISTRATION--TUNISIA HAS A GREAT DEAL OF WORK
TO DO IF IT IS TO MODERNIZE ITS GOVERNMENT, ECONOMY, AND
EDUCATIONAL SYSTEM AND COMPETE IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY. ON THE
POLITICAL SIDE, IT IS CLEAR THAT SOME OF BEN ALI'S CLOSEST
ADVISORS DO NOT HAVE CABINET POSITIONS. SPOKESMAN ABDULLAH
IS WIDELY SEEN AS THE HARD-LINER ON FREEDOM OF PRESS ISSUES;
FORMER PRIME MINISTER KAROUI, WHO CURRENTLY HOLDS NO
GOVERNMENT POSITION, HAS FREQUENTLY REPRESENTED BEN ALI AT
INTERNATIONAL FUNCTIONS; PRESIDENTIAL COUNSELOR BEN DHIA, WHO
RAN BEN ALI'S 1999 CAMPAIGN, AND WAS SEEN AS FADING, IS STILL
ACTIVE IN THE POLITICAL DOMAIN. WE BELIEVE IT IS TOO EARLY
TO PREDICT WHAT BEN ALI WILL DO IN 2004, BUT HE IS FIRMLY IN
CONTROL OF HIS GOVERNMENT AND HIS POLITICAL PARTY, AND THERE
IS NO SIGN THAT HE IS EITHER GROOMING A SUCCESSOR OR
PREPARING THE PUBLIC FOR HIS DEPARTURE IN 2004. END COMMENT.

DEMING