AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE - NEXT STEPS

S E C R E T STATE 192153

BUDAPEST PASS BELGRADE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/02/21
TAGS: PREL AF PTER
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE - NEXT STEPS

REF: (A)STATE 175414 (NOTAL) AND PREVIOUS, (B)ISLAMABAD
5601

(U) CLASSIFIED BY DONALD CAMP DEPUTY ASSISTANT SECRETARY
FOR SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS; REASON: 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (U) THIS TELEGRAM HAS BEEN CLEARED BY M/P (SEP).


2. (S) POSTS SHOULD DRAW FROM POINTS BELOW IN DISCUSSIONS
WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS REGARDING U.S. VIEWS ON THE FUTURE
OF AFGHANISTAN. THE SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN IS FLUID.
WITH EVENTS MOVING RAPIDLY, WE ASK POSTS TO REFRAIN FROM
MAKING UNEQUIVOCAL STATEMENTS ABOUT OUR POLICIES WITH
REGARD TO AFGHANISTAN. DEPARTMENT WILL PROVIDE ALDAC
UPDATES AS THE SITUATION EVOLVES. PLEASE DO NOT LEAVE
TALKING POINTS AS NON-PAPERS WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS. POSTS
SHOULD REFER QUESTIONS REGARDING CONTACTS WITH
REPRESENTATIVES OF AFGHAN FACTIONS, INCLUDING THE NORTHERN
ALLIANCE (NA-UNITED FRONT) TO SA/PAB. DEALING WITH THESE
GROUPS IS BEING HANDLED VERY CAREFULLY BY WASHINGTON TO
AVOID SENDING SIGNALS WHICH MIGHT BE MISINTERPRETED OR
CONVEYING MIXED MESSAGES. WE WOULD ALSO APPRECIATE
REPORTING ON SUBSTANTIVE RESPONSES FROM HOST GOVERNMENTS.
NOTE: THIS CABLE DOES NOT ADDRESS ON-GOING INTELLIGENCE
OR MILITARY OPERATIONS.


3. (SBU) TALKING POINTS

FIGHTING TERRORISM
--------------

--OUR GOAL IS TO ROOT OUT AND DESTROY THE AL-QAIDA NETWORK
AND ENSURE THAT AFGHANISTAN WILL NEVER AGAIN BE A BASE FOR
TERRORIST OPERATIONS. NOR DO WE WANT TO SEE AN
AFGHANISTAN THAT PRODUCES DRUGS, CREATES MILLIONS OF
REFUGEES, OR CONTRIBUTES TO REGIONAL INSTABILITY.

--WE ARE NOT TARGETING ISLAM OR THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN,
BUT WE ARE TARGETING THE AL-QAIDA NETWORK AND THE TALIBAN
LEADERSHIP. (NOTE: POSTS MAY ELABORATE ON THIS IMPORTANT
POINT FROM PUBLIC DIPLOMACY TALKING POINTS.)

--OUR MILITARY CAMPAIGN IS GEARED AT DESTROYING TALIBAN
MILITARY CAPABILITY AND AL-QAIDA OPERATIONS THROUGH AN AIR
AND TARGETED GROUND CAMPAIGN. WE ARE COMMITTED FOR AS
LONG AS IS NECESSARY TO ACCOMPLISH OUR OBJECTIVES.

--THE PRESIDENT HAS MADE CLEAR THAT THE CAMPAIGN AGAINST
TERRORISM IS A SUSTAINED CAMPAIGN THAT WILL OUTLAST THE
IMMEDIATE EFFORTS IN AFGHANISTAN, BUT OUR IMMEDIATE FOCUS
IS THE AL-QAIDA NETWORK AND ITS BASE IN AFGHANISTAN.

--THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY THAT OUR MILITARY CAMPAIGN
WILL HAVE TO BE CONDUCTED DURING THE MONTH OF RAMADAN IN
ORDER TO ENSURE THAT USAMA BIN LADEN AND HIS SUPPORTERS DO
NOT STRENGTHEN THEIR POSITIONS. WE ASK YOUR UNDERSTANDING
IN THIS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO GO TO GREAT LENGTHS TO
ENSURE THAT MILITARY ACTIONS DO NOT IMPACT INNOCENT
CIVILIANS.

POST-TALIBAN AFGHANISTAN
--------------

--U.S. POLICY REGARDING AFGHANISTAN HAS FOUR BASIC
ELEMENTS: ERADICATION OF TERRORISM, HUMANITARIAN
ASSISTANCE AND RECONSTRUCTION, REGIONAL STABILITY, AND A
PEACEFUL AFGHANISTAN.

--ELIMINATING BIN LADEN AND HIS ASSOCIATES FROM
AFGHANISTAN IS ONLY THE FIRST STEP OF THE PROCESS.
OUSTING THE TALIBAN LEADERSHIP AND HELPING A BROAD-BASED,
REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT TO FORM IS ALSO A HIGH PRIORITY.
NEITHER OF THESE TASKS WILL BE EASY, PARTICULARLY GIVEN
THE ETHNIC AND REGIONAL DIVISIONS WITHIN AFGHANISTAN AND
THE DIFFICULTIES OF COALITION-BUILDING.

--WE DO NOT WANT TO CHOOSE WHO RULES AFGHANISTAN, BUT WE
WILL ASSIST THOSE WHO SEEK A PEACEFUL AFGHANISTAN FREE OF
TERRORISM AND ADDRESSING THE SOCIO-ECONOMIC NEEDS OF ITS
PEOPLE.

--WE BELIEVE THAT ALL LEGITIMATE AFGHAN GROUPS, INCLUDING
THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE, ROME GROUP BASED AROUND EX-KING
ZAHIR SHAH, AND SOUTHERN PASHTUNS, MUST PLAY A ROLE IN A
BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT. IN THE FUTURE AFGHANISTAN,
TALIBAN RANK AND FILE BELOW THE LEADERSHIP LEVEL NEED TO
INTEGRATE PEACEFULLY IN A CIVIL SOCIETY.

--WE ARE IN REGULAR CONTACT WITH THE FORMER KING IN ROME
AND OTHER INDEPENDENT AFGHANS AROUND THE WORLD. WE
WELCOME THE FORMER KINGS INITIATIVE TO UNITE THE ROME
GROUP, OTHER AFGHAN GROUPS AND THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE UNDER
ONE UMBRELLA -- THE SUPREME NATIONAL COUNCIL (SNC) -
COMMITTED TO PROVIDING A POLITICAL ALTERNATIVE TO THE
TALIBAN.

--THIS EFFORT IS AIMED AT LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR A
BROAD-BASED GOVERNMENT THAT REPRESENTS THE INTERESTS OF
ALL ETHNIC AND REGIONAL GROUPS AND REFLECTS THE WISHES OF
THE AFGHAN PEOPLE. THE GOVERNMENT ENVISIONED BY THE
SUPREME NATIONAL COUNCIL WILL RESPECT HUMAN RIGHTS, END
TERRORISM, AND FOLLOW INTERNATIONALLY ACCEPTED NORMS OF
BEHAVIOR.

--WE HAVE URGED PLAYERS IN ROME AND ELSEWHERE TO
ACCELERATE THE PLAN TO CONVENE A SUPREME NATIONAL COUNCIL,
WHILE APPEALING TO OTHER AFGHAN PARTIES TO SUPPORT THE
PROCESS.

--WE WELCOME THE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE FORMER KING AND THE
NORTHERN ALLIANCE TO WORK WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THE
SUPREME COUNCIL.

--WE ARE AWARE OF THE PAST HISTORY ABUSE IN AFGHANISTAN
INCLUDING DURING THE EARLY 1990'S. WE CANNOT CONDONE A
REPETITION OF THESE ABUSES OR ATTEMPTS TO RULE AFGHANISTAN
THAT EXCLUDES ANY ETHNIC GROUPS. WE WANT AN AFGHANISTAN
THAT DOES NOT THREATEN OR IS THREATENED BY ITS NEIGHBORS.

--PUTTING TOGETHER A POLITICAL EQUATION IS TIME-CONSUMING,
BUT SPEED IS OF THE ESSENCE. A POWER VACUUM COULD DEVELOP
IN KABUL AND CITIES THROUGHOUT THE COUNTRY AT ANY TIME.
ALTHOUGH MILITARY ACTIVITY IS STILL UNDERWAY, PLANNING AND
INITIAL STEPS MUST BEGIN NOW TO COMPLEMENT OUR MILITARY
AND HUMANITARIAN OBJECTIVES. A VIABLE ALTERNATIVE TO THE
TALIBAN COULD HELP ENCOURAGE SUPPORTERS OF THE TALIBAN TO
DISTANCE THEMSELVES FROM THE REGIME.

--SECURITY OF LIBERATED AREAS WILL BE A MAJOR CONCERN.
WHILE IT IS DESIRABLE THAT THE AFGHANS DEVELOP THEIR OWN
SECURITY INFRASTRUCTURE, ONE ALTERNATIVE THAT WE ARE
WEIGHING IS AN INTERNATIONAL ARMED FORCE TO PROVIDE
SECURITY, PARTICULARLY IN KABUL.

--WE ARE WORKING CLOSELY WITH THE UN AND OTHER INTERESTED
NATIONS TO EXPLORE OPTIONS FOR AN EFFECTIVE SECURITY
ARRANGEMENT IN AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME YOUR VIEWS ON THIS
QUESTION.

ROLE OF INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY
--------------

--A SUSTAINED EFFORT BY THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY WILL
BE NEEDED TO ENSURE AFGHANISTANS REHABILITATION AND
FORWARD MOMENTUM. WE WILL WORK TO REDOUBLE THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITYS PAST EFFORTS TO STABILIZE
AFGHANISTAN, BUT ULTIMATELY THE AFGHAN PEOPLE THEMSELVES
MUST MAKE THE IMPORTANT DECISIONS CONCERNING THEIR FUTURE.

--WE WELCOME UN SRSG LAKHDAR BRAHIMIS LEAD ROLE IN THIS
EFFORT AND URGE ALL UN MEMBERS TO ACTIVELY SUPPORT HIS
MISSION.

HUMANITARIAN ASSISTANCE AND ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION
-------------- --------------

--WE ARE VERY CONCERNED ABOUT THE PLIGHT OF THE AFGHAN
PEOPLE. DECADES OF CONFLICT, THREE YEARS OF DROUGHT, AND
TALIBAN ABUSE AND MISMANAGEMENT, INCLUDING THEIR
PROFITEERING FROM ILLICIT OPIUM CULTIVATION AND
TRAFFICKING, HAVE BROUGHT AFGHANISTAN TO HUMANITARIAN
DISASTER.

--WE WILL WORK WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY TO DEVELOP
A LONG-TERM ECONOMIC RECONSTRUCTION PLAN FOR A POST-
CONFLICT AFGHANISTAN. WE ANTICIPATE A HUMANITARIAN
ASSISTANCE DONORS CONFERENCE. THE FOCUS OF THESE EFFORTS
WILL BE QUICK-IMPACT PROJECTS TO ACHIEVE IMMEDIATE
IMPROVEMENTS IN SOCIO-ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, INCLUDING
RESETTLEMENT OF REFUGEES AND DISPLACED PERSONS.

--OUR HIGHEST IMMEDIATE PRIORITY IS TO SUPPORT EFFORTS TO
DELIVER FOOD AND OTHER RELIEF INSIDE AFGHANISTAN, EVEN AS
MILITARY OPERATIONS ARE TAKING PLACE.

--DELIVERIES CONTINUE INTO AFGHANISTAN DESPITE THE
DIFFICULT CONDITIONS AND INCREASING TALIBAN
INTERFERENCE/LOOTING. IT IS ESPECIALLY IMPORTANT THAT THE
ASSISTANCE REACH NEEDY AFGHANS BEFORE THE ONSET OF WINTER
IN A FEW WEEKS.

--THE U.S. HAS BEEN THE LARGEST DONOR OF HUMANITARIAN
RELIEF FOR AFGHANISTAN, HAVING PROVIDED CLOSE TO $1
BILLION IN ASSISTANCE OVER RECENT YEARS. THE PRESIDENT
RECENTLY ANNOUNCED AN ADDITIONAL $320 MILLION. AT THE
OCTOBER 5 DONORS CONFERENCE IN GENEVA, THERE WERE PLEDGES
MADE BY ALL COUNTRIES FOR $736 MILLION. ADDITIONAL
PLEDGES CONTINUE TO COME IN ON A DAILY BASIS. UN AGENCIES
NEED CASH NOW. IT IS IMPORTANT FOR COUNTRIES TO MAKE GOOD
ON PLEDGES WITH QUICK DISBURSEMENTS.

--DOD AIRDROPS ARE ONLY ONE PART OF OUR ASSISTANCE AND ARE
TARGETED AT HARD-TO-REACH AREAS. WITH WINTER APPROACHING,
WE ARE ALSO LOOKING INTO THE POSSIBILITY OF AIRLIFTS (NOT
AIRDROPS) TO REACH THESE AREAS.

CONCLUSION
--------------

--WE WOULD WELCOME YOUR VIEWS ON THESE ISSUES, AND LOOK
FORWARD TO A CONTINUING DIALOGUE WITH YOU.


4. MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.


POWELL