AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE

C O N F I D E N T I A L STATE 176853

E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/10/11
TAGS: PREL AF PK
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S POLITICAL FUTURE

REF: (A)STATE 175414 (NOTAL),(B)ISLAMABAD 5601

(U) CLASSIFIED BY: CHRISTINA B. ROCCA, ASSISTANT SECRETARY
FOR SOUTH ASIAN AFFAIRS; REASON: 1.5 (B AND D).


1. (C) ACTION ADDRESSEES SHOULD DRAW FROM POINTS BELOW IN
DISCUSSIONS WITH HOST GOVERNMENTS REGARDING U.S. VIEWS ON
THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. NOTING SPECIFICALLY
THAT THESE ARE PRELIMINARY THOUGHTS, ACTION ADDRESSEES
SHOULD REQUEST HOST COUNTRY INPUT. EMBASSY ISLAMABAD HAS
MADE A SIMILAR APPROACH (REF A) TO THE GOP BUT MAY USE THESE
EXPANDED POINTS TO AMPLIFY ITS DISCUSSION.


2. (C) BACKGROUND:

-- AFGHANISTAN'S STABILITY IS PREDICATED UPON HAVING A
GOVERNMENT WITHOUT TERRORIST TIES, FRIENDLY TO ITS
NEIGHBORS, AND ENGAGED IN OVERLL REGIONAL COOPERATION AND
ECONOMIC REHABILITATION. A FUTURE GOVERNMENT WILL LIKELY
EMERGE FROM THE "SUPREME COUNCIL" UNDER FORMER KING ZAHIR
SHAH'S SYMBOLIC LEADERSHIP WITH NORTHERN ALLIANCE, MAJOR
ETHNIC, PARTICULARLY PASHTUN, AND SECTARIAN GROUPS.

AFGHANISTAN WILL NEED INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE WITH A
SECURITY ARRANGEMENT THAT WOULD PROVIDE STABILITY FOR
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC RECOVERY, INCLUDING HOLDING KABUL AND
OTHER URBAN AREAS, AND PROTECT THE GOVERNMENT AND
INTERNATIONAL ASSISTANCE WORKERS FROM THOSE THAT SEEK TO
CONTINUE THE CONFLICT.

-- AFGHANS WILL NEED HELP TO FORM A GOVERNMENT THAT IN
COOPERATION WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY CAN CLOSE DOWN
TERRORISTS OPERATIONS, ADHERES TO INTERNATIONAL NORMS AND
PRACTICES, PARTICULARLY HUMAN RIGHTS, ISSUES CONCERNING
WOMEN, AND FACILITATES SAFE DELIVERY OF HUMANITARIAN AND
ECONOMIC ASSISTANCE. CONSULTATIONS WITH COALITION PARTNERS,
PARTICULARLY ISLAMIC COUNTRIES AND REGIONAL STATES, WILL BE
IMPORTANT IN DETERMINING AND IMPLEMENTING A SECURITY
ARRANGMENT THAT WOULD BE WELCOMED BY THE "SUPREME COUNCIL"
AND A FUTURE AFGHAN GOVERNMENT.


3. (C) TALKING POINTS:

-- WITH EVENTS MOVING RAPIDLY, WE BELIEVE IT IMPERATIVE TO
DISCUSS THE POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN. WE ANTICIPATE
MANY FUTURE, DETAILED EXCHANGES OF VIEWS ON THIS IMPORTANT
TOPIC AS EVENTS PROCEED.

-- WE WOULD LIKE TO MAKE IT VERY CLEAR THAT WE DO NOT
INTEND TO, NOR DO WE BELIEVE WE COULD, DETERMINE THIS
FUTURE.

-- AS YOU KNOW WE ARE PROVIDING HUMANITARIAN AID TO COMBAT
THE PRESENT CRISIS. WE AND OTHER COUNTRIES MADE GENEROUS
CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE UNSYG'S EMERGENCY APPEAL, BUT THERE IS
STILL MORE TO BE DONE. WE ARE ALSO LOOKING AT HOW THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, COULD WORK TO REBUILD THE ECONOMY
IN A FUTURE AFGHANISTAN.

-- USG WELCOMES APPOINTMENT OF AMBASSADOR LAKHDAR BRAHIMI
AS SECRETARY GENERAL'S SPECIAL ENVOY FOR AFGHANISTAN AND
LOOKS FORWARD TO WORKING WITH HIM. WE EXPECT TO ENGAGE IN
DISCUSSIONS WITH HIM IN THE NEAR FUTURE REGARDING UN
ROLE IN BRINGING PEACE AND STABILITY TO AFGHANISTAN. WE
ENCOURAGE PAKISTANI CONTACTS WITH HIM AS WELL.

-- WE BELIEVE YOUR GOVERNMENT HAS A ROLE TO PLAY IN SOLVING
THE PROBLEMS OF AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME INCREASED DIALOGUE
WITH THE FORMER KING AND BROADENED CONTACTS WITH
AFGHANS TO ENCOURAGE ANTI-TALEBAN UNITY.

-- WE HAVE ALSO BEEN IN CONTACT WITH THE FORMER KING AT A
HIGH LEVEL AND EXPECT TO BE ENGAGING IN SIMILAR DISCUSSIONS
WITH BOTH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND OTHER
INDEPENDENTAFGHANS, PARTICULARLY PASHTUNS, INSIDE AND
OUTSIDE AFGHANISTAN. WE WELCOME THE FORMATION OF A SUPREME
COUNCIL FOR NATIONAL UNITY OF AFGHANISTAN COMBINING THE ROME
GROUP WITH THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE AND OTHER AFGHAN GROUPS.

-- WE ARE LOOKING AT PROVIDING FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE TO THE
ROME GROUP TO DEFRAY IMMEDIATE ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES.

-- ULTIMATELY, IT IS UP TO THE PEOPLE OF AFGHANISTAN TO
DETERMINE THEIR OWN FUTURE. THAT SAID, WE BELIEVE THAT
THERE ARE CERTAIN GENERALLY ACCEPTED INTERNATIONAL
PRINCIPLES WHICH ANY GOVERNMENT WILL NEED TO ADHERE TO. IT
WILL NEED TO BE BROAD-BASED, MULTI-ETHNIC,AND GENERALLY
REPRESENTATIVE, RESPECT HUMAN RIGHTS, END
ALL SUPPORT FOR TERRORISM, AND FOLLOW ACCEPTED STANDARDS
OF INTERNATIONAL BEHAVIOR.

-- BY DEFINITION, ANY TRANSITION OR FUTURE GOVERNMENT
COULD NOT BE COMPOSED OF JUST ONE AFGHAN FACTION. TO BE
SPECIFIC, WE DO NOT BELIEVE THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE ALONE
COULD OR SHOULD RULE AFGHANISTAN GIVEN ITS LIMITED ETHNIC
COMPOSITION. THE NA WILL, OF COURSE, HAVE A ROLE IN ANY
FUTURE GOVERNMENT, AS SHOULD OTHER SIGNIFICANT ELEMENTS OF
AFGHAN SOCIETY.

-- WE ALSO UNDERSTAND THAT AFGHANISTAN'S NEIGHBORS HAVE
LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS IN AFGHANISTAN. WE BELIEVE
THAT ANY FUTURE GOVERNMENT SHOULD TAKE THOSE INTERESTS INTO
ACCOUNT. PAKISTAN DOES NOT WANT TO BE FACED WITH A HOSTILE
AFGHANISTAN WITH TERRITORIAL CLAIMS. IRAN WANTS THE SHI'A
PROTECTED AND NO DRUGS. PAKISTAN AND IRAN WANT REFUGEES TO
RETURN HOME. UZBEKISTAN, TURKMENISTAN,AND TAJIKISTAN WANT
PEACEFUL BORDERS.

-- WE WOULD NOTE, HOWEVER, THAT OTHER NEIGHBORING
COUNTRIES ALSO HAVE LEGITIMATE INTERESTS IN THE FUTURE
POLITICAL SETUP IN AFGHANISTAN. WE DO NOT SEE ANY
IRRECONCILABLE CONFLICT AMONG THESE INTERESTS AS LONG AS
AFGHANS AND OUTSIDE INTERESTS ARE FLEXIBLE.

-- WE HAVE MADE THESE POINTS TO OUR AFGHAN CONTACTS.

-- YOUR COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED ON ALL
FRONTS. WE EXPECT TO BE IN FREQUENT CONTACT WITH YOU ON
THIS TOPIC AND WELCOME YOUR VIEWS.


4. (C) BELOW ADDRESSEES SHOULD ADD THE FOLLOWING POINTS:

FOR SIX PLUS TWO MEMBERS:

-- YOUR COUNTRY, ALONG WITH AFGHANISTAN'S OTHER NEIGHBORS,
HAS LEGITIMATE NATIONAL INTERESTS IN AFGHANISTAN THAT NEED
TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. YOUR COOPERATION IS VITAL TO THE
EMERGENCE OF A FUTURE PEACEFUL, STABLE AFGHANISTAN.
-- WE ARE CONSIDERING WHEN AND AT WHAT LEVEL THE SIX PLUS
TWO MIGHT MEET TO DISCUSS THESE ISSUES.

FOR EMBASSY NEW DELHI:

-- INDIA HAS A LONG HISTORY WITH AFGHANISTAN AS WELL AS KEY
INTERESTS THAT NEED TO BE TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT. INDIA, LIKE
PAKISTAN, SHOULD NOT BE FACED WITH A HOSTILE AFGHANISTAN.

-- INDIA'S COOPERATION IS VITAL AND WELCOMED. WE ANTICIPATE
A DIALOGUE WITH INDIA ON REGIONAL IMPLICATIONS OF THIS
TOPIC AS THE SITUATION DEVELOPS.

FOR EMBASSY TOKYO:

-- VERY MUCH APPRECIATE YOUR STRONG INTEREST IN THE
ECONOMICA AND POLITICAL FUTURE OF AFGHANISTAN.

-- WE VALUE OUR BILATERAL EXCHANGES ON THIS ISSUE, BOTH IN
TOKYO AND IN WASHINGTON, AS WELL AS ON THE MARGINS OF RECENT
MEETINGS IN BERLIN AND GENEVA.

-- WE ALSO THINK YOUR SUPPORT FOR PAKISTAN AS IT GRAPPLES
WITH ITS ECONOMIC NEEDS IS VERY HELPFUL, ESPECIALLY AS
PRESIDENT MUSHARRAF HAS BEEN TAKING RISKS DOMESTICALLY BY
JOINING OUR INTERNATIONAL COALITION AGAINST TERRORISM.

-- WE VIEW YOU AS AN INTEGRAL PARTNER AS WE FOCUS ON AN
ASSISTANCE AND POLITICAL/ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN FOR A FUTURE
AFGHANISTAN.

MINIMIZE CONSIDERED.


POWELL