CHINESE QUIETLY SUPPORT REFORM?

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 RANGOON 001171

SIPDIS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 RANGOO 01171 01 OF 02 282145Z
CINCPAC FOR AMBASSADOR TWINING
USUN FOR PIPER CAMPBELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/11
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV CH PHUM PGOV CH BM BM PREL
SUBJECT: CHINESE QUIETLY SUPPORT REFORM?

REF: A) RANGOON 00617 B) KUALA LUMPUR 01573

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES PRISCILLA A. CLAPP,
REASON: 1.5(D)


1. (C) SUMMARY. THE CHINESE DCM TOLD US THE PRC
CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE ONGOING POLITICAL DIALOGUE,
AND BELIEVES THE MILITARY REGIME IS SINCERE IN ITS
DEALINGS WITH AUNG SAN SUU KYI (ASSK). WHILE HE
STATED HIS BELIEF THAT OUTSIDE PRESSURE IS COUNTER-
PRODUCTIVE, HE GAVE SOME REASON TO BELIEVE BEIJING
MIGHT PROVIDE DISCREET SUPPORT FOR RAZALI'S
INITIATIVE. END SUMMARY.

THE DIALOGUE
--------------


2. (C) CHINESE DCM TANG YING TOLD DCM ON 26 JULY
THAT CHINA CLOSELY FOLLOWS POLITICAL DEVELOPMENTS IN
BURMA AND HAS BEEN CONCERNED FOR SOME TIME ABOUT
POLITICAL AND ECONOMIC STABILITY IN THIS COUNTRY (REF
A). ACCORDING TO TANG, THE PRC SEES BURMA'S
FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM AS POLITICAL.

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3. (C) TANG NOTED THAT BEIJING WELCOMES THE
DIALOGUE BETWEEN ASSK AND THE RULING STATE PEACE AND
DEVELOPMENT COUNCIL (SPDC) AND HOPES THAT IT WILL,
OVER TIME, LEAD TO A MORE STABLE POLITICAL
ENVIRONMENT WHICH WILL PERMIT BURMA TO DEVELOP MORE
RAPIDLY ECONOMICALLY. HIS GOVERNMENT WAS PLEASED TO
SEE THE RELEASE OF POLITICAL PRISONERS AND REOPENING
OF A HANDFUL OF NATIONAL LEAGUE FOR DEMOCRACY (NLD)
LOCAL OFFICES.


4. (C) TANG BELIEVES THAT THE SENIOR SPDC
LEADERSHIP IS QUITE SERIOUS AND SINCERE ABOUT TRYING
TO REACH AN AGREEMENT WITH THE NLD THAT WOULD RESOLVE
THE POLITICAL IMPASSE. HE BELIEVES THE SPDC IS
TAKING A LARGE RISK IN ENGAGING IN TALKS, BOTH
BECAUSE IT MAY CAUSE DISSENTION WITHIN THE MILITARY
ABOUT HOW TO PROCEED, AND BECAUSE IT RISKS FURTHER
PRESSURE AND CONDEMNATION FROM THE INTERNATIONAL
COMMUNITY IF THE TALKS FAIL.


5. (C) TANG ASSERTED THAT THE RESOLUTION OF BURMA'S
POLITICAL PROBLEMS IS PRIMARILY A DOMESTIC ISSUE,
WHICH MUST BE RESOLVED BY THE VARIOUS BURMESE
PARTIES. HE STRESSED THAT FROM BEIJING'S
PERSPECTIVE, OUTSIDE PRESSURE OR INTERFERENCE COULD
IN FACT COMPLICATE BURMESE RESOLUTION OF THE
POLITICAL STALEMATE IN THE COUNTRY. HE SUGGESTED
THAT THE BEST THING THE USG COULD DO AT THIS STAGE
WAS TO PUBLICLY SUPPORT THE PROCESS. HE BELIEVED
THIS WAS THE BEST WAY TO ENCOURAGE THE SPDC TO TAKE
FURTHER STEPS.
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6. (C) TANG NOTED THAT CHINA WAS INTERESTED IN THE
RAZALI PROCESS, BUT DID NOT OFFER A STRONG STATEMENT
OF SUPPORT FOR IT, EVEN AFTER OUR BEING TOLD OF THE
IMPORTANCE THE USG ATTACHES TO THIS INITIATIVE. HE
DID SAY THAT THE CHINESE AMBASSADOR HAD TRIED TO
ATTEND RAZALI'S BRIEFING DURING HIS JUNE VISIT, BUT
MISSED IT WHEN HE DID NOT RECEIVE WORD ON THE CHANGED
TIME AND LOCATION OF THE BRIEFING.

RECENT CHINESE OFFICIAL VISITS
--------------


7. (C) TANG EXPLAINED THAT THE RECENT TRAVEL OF
YUNNAN PROVINCIAL VICE GOVERNOR SHAO QIWEI TO BURMA
WAS TO INSPECT THE PAUNGLAUNG HYDROPOWER PLANT. TANG
DECLINED TO ESTIMATE WHEN THIS PLANT (WHICH IS BEHIND
SCHEDULE) MIGHT BE PUT INTO SERVICE. HE NOTED THAT
THE RECENT VISIT OF THE MINISTER FOR RURAL PLANNING
AND LAND USE HAD RESULTED IN AN MOU TO COOPERATE IN
MINING. TANG SAID THERE WERE A NUMBER OF SPECIFIC

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CONFIDENTIAL PTQ3939

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ACTION EAP-00

INFO LOG-00 AID-00 CIAE-00 DODE-00 SRPP-00 EB-00 EUR-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 L-00 AC-01
NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OIC-02 OMB-01 PA-00 PM-00 PRS-00
ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SS-00 STR-00 TRSE-00 T-00
USIE-00 PMB-00 PRM-01 DRL-02 G-00 SAS-00 /008W
-------------- 0B3FDC 282146Z /69
R 271103Z JUL 01
FM AMEMBASSY RANGOON
TO SECSTATE WASHDC 6637
INFO ASSOCIATION OF SOUTHEAST ASIAN NATIONS
AMEMBASSY BEIJING
AMEMBASSY CANBERRA
AMEMBASSY DHAKA
AMEMBASSY NEW DELHI
AMEMBASSY OSLO
AMEMBASSY OTTAWA
AMEMBASSY SEOUL
AMEMBASSY TOKYO
AMEMBASSY WELLINGTON
AMCONSUL CHIANG MAI
USCINCPAC HONOLULU HI//FPA
USMISSION USUN NEW YORK
USMISSION GENEVA
ALL EUROPEAN UNION POST COLLECTIVE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 RANGOON 001171

SIPDIS

CONFIDENTIAL

PAGE 02 RANGOO 01171 02 OF 02 282146Z
CINCPAC FOR AMBASSADOR TWINING
USUN FOR PIPER CAMPBELL

E.O. 12958: DECL: 07/26/11
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV CH PHUM PGOV CH BM BM PREL
SUBJECT: CHINESE QUIETLY SUPPORT REFORM?

PROJECTS IN THIS AREA, BUT COULD PROVIDE NO DETAILS.


8. (C) REGARDING THE PLANNED KUNMING ANTI-NARCOTICS
SUMMIT INVOLVING CHINA, BURMA, LAOS, AND THAILAND,
TANG SAID PREPARATIONS ARE PROCEEDING. WHILE NOT YET
SCHEDULED, THERE WILL BE A SENIOR OFFICIALS MEETING,
FOLLOWED BY A MINISTERIAL, AND THEN THE ACTUAL
MEETING INVOLVING HEADS OF GOVERNMENT.


9. (C) COMMENT: AS NOTED IN REF B, RAZALI MAY BE
INTERESTED IN PURSUING CHINESE SUPPORT FOR HIS
INITIATIVE. OUR DISCUSSIONS WITH TANG LEAD US TO
BELIEVE THAT, WHILE THERE WILL BE DISTINCT LIMITS TO
CHINESE WILLINGNESS TO PUSH FOR CHANGE PUBLICLY, THE
CHINESE EMBASSY HERE MAY BE WILLING TO QUIETLY
SUPPORT THE PROCESS. TANG HAS TOLD US PREVIOUSLY
THAT HE AND OTHER EMBASSY OFFICERS HAVE ADVOCATED FOR
BASIC REFORM IN INFORMAL CONTACTS WITH BURMESE
COUNTERPARTS. AS A MAJOR SUPPORTER OF THE SPDC,
CHINESE VIEWS, HOWEVER DISCREETLY THEY MAY BE
TRANSMITTED, ARE LIKELY TO HAVE AN IMPACT. FROM THE
CHINESE STANDPOINT, A MORE STABLE AND ECONOMICALLY
VIBRANT BURMA WOULD MAKE A BETTER NEIGHBOR.

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CLAPP

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