OMAR BONGO AND THE GABONESE POLITICAL SCENE

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 05 LIBREVILLE 000603

SIPDIS

PARIS FOR WILLIAMS
TREASURY FOR OASIA - T. WRAY
KINSHASA ALSO FOR BRAZZAVILLE OFFICE

E.O. 12958: DECL: 04/11/05
TAGS: PGOV PINR PREL ECON GB
SUBJECT: OMAR BONGO AND THE GABONESE POLITICAL SCENE

REFS: (A) STATE 56003 (NOTAL)
(B) LIBREVILLE 75 (NOTAL)


1. (U) CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR REASONS 1.5 (B, D).


2. (C) SUMMARY: AFTER NEARLY 34 YEARS IN OFFICE, GABONESE
PRESIDENT OMAR BONGO IS A WILY POLITICIAN WHO STILL HAS A
FIRM GRIP ON POWER. HE IS UNQUESTIONABLY "THE BOSS" AND
MAINTAINS AN EXTENSIVE CIRCLE OF FAITHFUL AND PANDERING
ALLIES. MANY REMAIN LOYAL LARGELY BECAUSE THEIR LOYALTY IS
RICHLY REWARDED WITH FINANCIAL AND JOB SECURITY. PRESIDENT
BONGO'S CURRENT TERM ENDS IN 2005, AND SPECULATION SURFACES
FREQUENTLY AS TO WHETHER HE IS GROOMING SOMEONE TO SUCCEED
HIM. ALTHOUGH HE CLEARLY WATCHES THOSE CLOSEST TO HIM TO
EVALUATE THEIR POTENTIAL, BONGO DOES NOT APPEAR AS YET TO
HAVE CHOSEN ANYONE IN PARTICULAR, AND IS LIKELY BIDING HIS
TIME TO SEE WHO EMERGES AS A CAPABLE CANDIDATE WORTHY OF
HIS SUPPORT. INEVITABLY, BONGO'S OWN FATE WILL BE TIED TO
GABON'S FALLING OIL REVENUES, VITAL TO HIS ABILITY TO KEEP
PEACE IN A COUNTRY WITH STAGGERING DISPARITIES IN WEALTH
AND SIMMERING ETHNIC PRESSURES. THE DECEMBER LEGISLATIVE
ELECTIONS WILL BE AN INDICATOR OF BONGO'S (AND HIS RULING
PARTY'S) FUTURE, BUT MORE, OF HIS INCLINATION TO ALLOW
GABON'S SLOW DEMOCRATIZATION PROCESS TO CONTINUE. END
SUMMARY.

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BONGO: HE JUST KEEPS GOING AND GOING...
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3. (C) PRESIDENT EL HADJ OMAR BONGO IS FIRMLY IN CONTROL
IN GABON. WHILE HE IS DEPENDENT ON THE ADVICE AND SUPPORT
HE RECEIVES FROM HIS INNER CIRCLE, THERE IS NO QUESTION OF
WHO CALLS THE SHOTS. THOSE CLOSE TO HIM REFER TO HIM
UNSELFCONSCIOUSLY AS "LE PATRON" ("THE BOSS") AND REGARD
HIM WITH A COMBINATION OF AFFECTION AND RESPECT FOR HIS
POLITICAL WILES, HIS MASTERY OF DETAIL AND HIS PRODIGIOUS
MEMORY. AFTER NEARLY 34 YEARS IN POWER, AND WITH THE HELP
OF GENEROUS OIL REVENUES, BONGO HAS ESTABLISHED A MASTERY
OF THE LEVERS OF INFLUENCE THAT NONE CAN CHALLENGE.
GABON'S MINERAL WEALTH HAS MADE IT POSSIBLE FOR HIM TO
REWARD THOSE CLOSE TO HIM, ENSURING A STRONG SENSE OF
LOYALTY, AND TO PURCHASE THE COOPERATION OF THOSE IN
OPPOSITION. INDEED, HE IS KNOWN AS A "SOFT TOUCH" FOR HIS
WILLINGNESS TO FINANCE ALMOST ANYONE WITH A PERSUASIVE
PROPOSAL. AN EMBASSY CONTACT WHO KNOWS BONGO WELL SAYS
THAT HE IS PERENNIALLY SURPRISED AT THE NUMBER OF
INDIVIDUALS WHO ARE GRANTED SMALL FORTUNES BECAUSE OF THEIR
ABILITY TO CONVINCE THE PRESIDENT THAT THEIR SERVICES ARE
INDISPENSABLE TO HIS SURVIVAL IN OFFICE. WHETHER THIS IS A
REFLECTION OF BONGO'S NAIVETE OR HIS OWN WAY OF ACQUIRING



4. (C) BONGO IS ALSO A CUNNING LEADER WHO ENJOYS
THOROUGHLY THE GAME OF POLITICS. HE IS WELL INFORMED AND
BENEFITS FROM NETWORKS HE HAS PUT IN PLACE BOTH INSIDE AND
OUTSIDE GABON, INCLUDING AN ARRAY OF FEMALE "FRIENDS" WITH
WHOM HE MAINTAINS CLOSE RELATIONS. BONGO PLACES GREAT
STOCK IN KNOWING PERSONALLY THE PLAYERS IN ANY ISSUE OF
IMPORTANCE. AT THE SAME TIME, HE IS CAREFUL NOT TO
INITIATE ANY UNDERTAKING -- PARTICULARLY OUTSIDE GABON --
WITHOUT A GOOD DEGREE OF CERTAINTY ABOUT THE OUTCOME. FOR
EXAMPLE, ALTHOUGH HE CRAVES THE POSITIVE REFLECTION THAT
COMES FROM HIS SUCCESSFUL MEDIATION OF REGIONAL CONFLICTS,
BONGO ENGAGES IN SUCH EFFORTS ONLY AFTER CAREFUL
CONSIDERATION. IN MEDIATING THE CIVIL WAR IN CONGO/B, FOR
EXAMPLE, HE MOVED CAUTIOUSLY, MAKING CERTAIN THAT EACH
INITIATIVE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY A THOROUGH ROUND OF MEETINGS
OF THE KEY PARTIES. HIS HESITATION TO BECOME INVOLVED IN
THE CONGO/K DELIBERATIONS SHOWS SIMILAR CAUTION: UNTIL ALL
OF THE PARTIES ASK HIM TO BE INVOLVED, AND HE CAN BE
RELATIVELY CONFIDENT OF SOME POSITIVE OUTCOME, BONGO IS
LIKELY TO LIMIT HIS INVOLVEMENT. WHEN HE DOES CHOOSE TO
ACT, HIS YEARS IN OFFICE, AND THE NOT INCONSIDERABLE
INFLUENCE AS ELDER STATESMAN THAT HE ENJOYS AMONG AFRICANS,
ALLOW BONGO A WIDE MARGIN OF MANEUVER. THE MANTLE OF
AUTHORITY -- BUTTRESSED BY A PERSONABLE AND EVEN CHARMING
EXTERIOR -- PROVIDES HIM WITH THE ABILITY TO SPEAK FRANKLY
TO PEOPLE, SOMETIMES TELLING THEM TRUTHS THAT OTHERS MIGHT
NOT BE ABLE TO SAY.

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BONGO'S INNER CIRCLE
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5. (C) BONGO RELIES ON A RELATIVELY SMALL CIRCLE FOR
ADVICE. NONETHELESS, AS DEMONSTRATED BY THE JANUARY
OUSTING OF EQUIPMENT MINISTER ZACHARIE MYBOTO (REF B),THE
LONGEST SERVING MEMBER OF THE PRESIDENT'S CABINET, NO ONE
IN BONGO'S INNER CIRCLE IS UNTOUCHABLE. MINISTER OF
INTERIOR ANTOINE MBOUMBOU MIYAKOU IS ONE OF THE PRESIDENT'S
MOST LOYAL FOLLOWERS AND TRUSTED ADVISORS. BACKED BY THE
POLICE AND CONSIDERED BY SOME TO BE UNSCRUPULOUS IN HIS
ZEAL, MIYAKOU'S LOYALTY KNOWS NO LIMITS. HE PROVIDES BONGO
WITH POLITICAL ADVICE AND UNFAILING SUPPORT. MIYAKOU IS
ALSO WELL-PLACED TO ASSIST "LE PATRON" BECAUSE OF HIS
RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE CONDUCT OF ELECTIONS.


6. (C) PRIME MINISTER JEAN-FRANCOIS NTOUTOUME-EMANE IS
ALSO A CLOSE ADVISOR, TO SOME DEGREE BY DEFAULT GIVEN HIS
POSITION. BONGO AND THE PRIME MINISTER HAVE AT TIMES HAD
HEATED PUBLIC DISAGREEMENTS, AND BONGO MAY NOT TRUST (OR
EVEN LIKE) HIM. THE PRESIDENT NONETHELESS RESPECTS
NTOUTOUME-EMANE'S INTELLECT, CONSIDERED BY MANY TO BE THE
STRONGEST IN THE GOVERNMENT (ONE POPULAR NICKNAME FOR THE
PM IS "JACKY THOUSAND-ENCYCLOPEDIAS"). FOREIGN MINISTER
JEAN PING (WHO IN THE PAST ALSO HAD A RELATIONSHIP,
RESULTING IN A CHILD, WITH PRESIDENTIAL DAUGHTER AND
ADVISER PASCALINE BONGO) IS UNDOUBTEDLY THE GABONESE EXPERT
ON FOREIGN AFFAIRS, AND ADVISES BONGO ACCORDINGLY. HE HAS
LITTLE INFLUENCE ON DOMESTIC AFFAIRS, HOWEVER, AND DOES NOT
APPEAR TO BE PERSONALLY CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENT. REFORM-
MINDED FINANCE MINISTER EMILE DOUMBA IS BONGO'S PRIMARY
RESOURCE FOR ECONOMIC ADVICE, BUT IS SIMILARLY OUTSIDE THE
CIRCLE OF "PRESIDENTIAL INTIMATES."


7. (C) OTHER INDIVIDUALS UPON WHOM THE PRESIDENT RELIES
INCLUDE AGING SENATE PRESIDENT GEORGES RAWIRI, WHO IS SEEN
BY MANY AS THE MAN MOST LIKELY TO REPLACE BONGO IN THE
SHORT TERM IF THE PRESIDENT WERE SUDDENLY TO EXIT THE
SCENE. EDUCATION MINISTER AND GOVERNMENT SPOKESMAN ANDRE
MBA OBAME AND PRESIDENTIAL SON AND DEFENSE MINISTER ALI-BEN
BONGO ALSO PLAY BOTH POLITICAL AND POLICY ADVISING ROLES,
AND FREQUENTLY WORK TOGETHER TO ACHIEVE COMMON GOALS (SEE
REF B). MINISTER OF MINES, ENERGY, AND PETROLEUM PAUL
TOUNGUI IS AN ADVISOR OF APPARENTLY GROWING INFLUENCE. HE
IS INTELLIGENT, TECHNICALLY COMPETENT, AND HEADS THE MOST
POWERFUL MINISTRY IN THE GOVERNMENT. OTHER BONGO
CONFIDANTS INCLUDE FORMER CAMPAIGN ASSISTANT NGOYOU
MOUSSAVOU, VICE PRESIDENT DIDJOB DIVUNGI DI NDINGE, AND
ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL COUNCIL CHAIRMAN LOUIS GASTON MAYILA.

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RELATIONSHIPS
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8. (C) RELATIONSHIPS ARE EVERYTHING IN THIS SMALL
COUNTRY, WHERE VIRTUALLY ALL OF THE PROMINENT FAMILIES ARE
RELATED IN SOME WAY TO PRESIDENT BONGO AND TO EACH OTHER.
AT TIMES GABON CAN SEEM LIKE AN AFRICAN PEYTON PLACE. IN
ADDITION TO PERSONAL RELATIONSHIPS, ETHNICITY PLAYS A VITAL
ROLE IN ALLIANCES. BONGO HAS BEEN VERY CAREFUL TO APPEASE
DIFFERENT ETHNIC GROUPS BY PARCELING OUT CHOICE POSITIONS
AMONG THEM. SOME CONSIDER THE SECRET TO BONGO'S LONGEVITY
TO BE HIS ABILITY TO BALANCE THE DESIRES OF THE LARGER
GABONESE ETHNIC GROUPS. AS A MEMBER OF ONE OF THE
COUNTRY'S SMALLER GROUPS (BATEKE),HE HAS SUCCESSFULLY
POSITIONED HIMSELF ABOVE THE ETHNIC FRAY WHILE KEEPING THE
LARGER GROUPS (E.G., THE FANG AND BAPOUNOU) QUIESCENT. ONE
RESULT OF BONGO'S CONSTANT EFFORTS TO APPEASE DIFFERENT
ETHNIC GROUPS HAS BEEN TO CREATE MINISTRIES HEADED AND
STAFFED BY ONE ETHNIC GROUP OR ANOTHER. THOUGH POLITICALLY
EFFECTIVE, THE PRACTICE HAS NOT LED TO COOPERATIVE OR
EFFICIENT INTERMINISTERIAL OPERATIONS. AT THE CABINET
LEVEL, ETHNIC CONSIDERATIONS CREATE SHIFTING ALLIANCES
AMONG BONGO ADVISORS. CURRENTLY, FOR EXAMPLE, ALI-BEN
BONGO IS CLOSE TO GENERAL NGUETSARA, THE CANTANKEROUS HEAD
OF THE GENERAL OFFICE FOR DOCUMENTATION AND IMMIGRATION.
AT THE SAME TIME, ALI-BEN AND EDUCATION MINISTER MBA OBAME
ARE PERCEIVED AS GOOD (PERHAPS "VERY GOOD," ACCORDING TO
SALACIOUS RUMORS) FRIENDS, AND ALI-BEN MAINTAINS CLOSE TIES
TO TRANSPORTATION MINISTER IDRISS NGARI.

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SUCCESSION
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9. (C) OMAR BONGO HAS GIVEN NO INDICATION YET THAT HE IS
GROOMING SOMEONE PARTICULAR TO SUCCEED HIM IN 2005.
INDEED, WHETHER BONGO, WHO IS 67, WILL SEEK RE-ELECTION IN
2005 REMAINS AMBIGUOUS, THOUGH MANY ASSUME HE WILL NOT.
BONGO IS EXTREMELY CAUTIOUS WHEN IT COMES TO PROTECTING HIS
OWN IMAGE; HE WOULD NOT WANT TO BE CAUGHT BACKING ANYONE
BUT THE EVENTUAL WINNER. BONGO WILL NOT THROW HIS SUPPORT
BEHIND ANYONE WHO HAS A CHANCE OF LOSING, THEREBY
TARNISHING THE PRESIDENT'S LEGACY. AT THE SAME TIME, HE
APPEARS TO HAVE NO INTEREST YET IN ENDOWING ANY OF HIS
FOLLOWERS WITH "HEIR APPARENT" CREDENTIALS. MOST BELIEVE
BONGO IS BIDING HIS TIME, WATCHING FOR A CANDIDATE TO PROVE
HIMSELF, BUILD A (NON-THREATENING) CONSTITUENCY,
DEMONSTRATE HIS CAPABILITIES, AND THEREBY EARN THE
PRESIDENT'S SUPPORT. BONGO IS BOTH VERY CAUTIOUS AND A
REALIST. ONE OF THE CHARACTERISTICS HE WILL BE LOOKING FOR
IN A SUCCESSOR WILL BE THAT INDIVIDUAL'S ABILITY TO PROMOTE
STABILITY IN THE MIRE OF TURMOIL THAT IS CENTRAL AFRICA.
BONGO TAKES HIS ROLE AS THE REGION'S "DOYEN " -- A MEDIATOR
AND PEACEMAKER -- SERIOUSLY. HE WILL SUPPORT SOMEONE
WORTHY OF CARRYING ON THAT ROLE.


10. (C) DEFENSE MINISTER ALI-BEN BONGO IS ONE PERSON
PRESIDENT BONGO MAY BE WATCHING AS A POSSIBLE SUCCESSOR.
IF THIS IS THE CASE, BEING THE PRESIDENT'S SON WILL NOT
NECESSARILY GIVE HIM AN ADVANTAGE OVER OTHERS. HE WILL
NEED TO PROVE HIMSELF LIKE THE REST. A FORMER FOREIGN
MINISTER, THE YOUNGER BONGO HAS INCREASED HIS VISIBILITY IN
RECENT MONTHS. IN FEBRUARY HE ORGANIZED A "NATIONAL
MILITARY DAY," CELEBRATED BY PARADES TO SHOW OFF NEW
UNIFORMS HE PURCHASED FOR THE ARMED FORCES. DURING A
FEBRUARY TRIP TO GERMANY HE ARRANGED FOR THE GABONESE
MILITARY TO PURCHASE 600 MERCEDES TRUCKS OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL YEARS. THE YOUNGER BONGO IS EAGER TO INCREASE THE
MILITARY'S CAPABILITIES AND PROFESSIONALISM,
ENTHUSIASTICALLY SUPPORTING PARTICIPATION IN U.S. IMET
TRAINING PROGRAMS AND HOSTING A VARIETY OF MILITARY
EXERCISES AND CONFERENCES. ALI-BEN BONGO, WHO CONVERTED TO
ISLAM WITH HIS FATHER IN THE 1970S, ALSO STYLES HIMSELF A
LEADER OF GABON'S MUSLIMS AND, IN THAT ROLE, IS A USEFUL
EAR FOR THE ELDER BONGO IN THAT SMALL (ABOUT 5 PERCENT OF
THE GABONESE) BUT INFLUENTIAL COMMUNITY.


11. (C) MINES, ENERGY, AND PETROLEUM MINISTER PAUL TOUNGUI
ALSO GIVES SIGNS OF RECEIVING GROWING SUPPORT FROM
PRESIDENT BONGO. RECENTLY PROMOTED TO THE RANK OF MINISTER
OF STATE (REF B),TOUNGUI IS A LONGTIME ADVISOR TO THE
PRESIDENT WITH A REPUTATION AS A CLEVER ADMINISTRATOR AND
POLITICAL MANEUVERER. MANY TOOK TOUNGUI'S RECENT PROMOTION
AS A SIGN THAT PRESIDENT BONGO IS DRAWING HIM CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF POWER. TOUNGUI'S RELATIONSHIP WITH THE PRESIDENT
IS FURTHER REINFORCED BY HIS LONG-TERM AMOROUS RELATIONSHIP
(OR "MARRIAGE", AS IT IS DESCRIBED HERE) WITH BONGO'S
DAUGHTER AND NOMINAL CHIEF OF STAFF, PASCALINE.

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ECONOMICS AND CORRUPTION
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12. (C) THE MOST SERIOUS THREAT TO GABON'S LONG-TERM
STABILITY (AND TO BONGO'S REGIME) IS THE EXPECTED DECREASE
IN OIL REVENUES. BONGO'S ABILITY TO USE THIS CONSIDERABLE
WEALTH TO REWARD AND ENRICH POWERFUL INDIVIDUALS AND GROUPS
WITHIN THE COUNTRY HAS BEEN THE KEY TO HIS MAINTAINING
STABILITY AND PRESERVING POWER FOR THE PAST THREE DECADES.
AFTER REACHING A HIGH OF 18.5 MILLION TONS IN 1998, OIL
PRODUCTION DECREASED TO 13.5 MILLION TONS IN 2000 AND MAY
FALL TO AS LITTLE AS 6.5 MILLION TONS IN 2005. WHILE DEEP-
WATER EXPLORATION CONTINUES OFFSHORE, THERE IS VIRTUALLY NO
HOPE THAT GABON WILL BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT
DEPENDENCE ON OIL REVENUES IN THE MEDIUM AND LONG TERMS.


13. (C) BEFORE THE ARRIVAL OF FINANCE MINISTER EMILE
DOUMBA IN 1999, THE SYSTEM OF DISPENSING GOVERNMENT REVENUE
WAS COMPLETELY ARBITRARY AND UNDISCIPLINED. DESPITE
DOUMBA'S PROGRESS IN REIGNING IN OFF-BUDGET EXPENDITURES,
PRESIDENT BONGO CONTINUES TO EXERCISE PERSONAL CONTROL OVER
A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF GOVERNMENT REVENUE. BONGO
UNDOUBTEDLY SETS THE TONE AND IS AWARE OF THE WORST
EXAMPLES OF CORRUPTION WITHIN HIS ADMINISTRATION, BUT
RARELY TAKES ANY ACTION TO CONTROL IT. BOWING TO PRESSURE
FROM THE IMF, AN ANTI-CORRUPTION BILL WAS RECENTLY AND
BELATEDLY INTRODUCED TO THE NATIONAL ASSEMBLY. THE
LEGISLATION IS CURRENTLY UNDERGOING "SOFTENING", HOWEVER,
AND SEEMS UNLIKELY TO HAVE AS MUCH AFFECT ON BONGO'S WAY OF
OPERATING AS THE LOSS OF OIL REVENUE. BONGO ALSO
ENGINEERED PASSAGE OF A CONSTITUTIONAL AMENDMENT IN LATE
2000 THAT PROVIDES THE PRESIDENT ABSOLUTE IMMUNITY FOR
ACTIONS TAKEN WHILE IN OFFICE. MANY READ THE MOVE AT THE
TIME AS A SIGN OF BONGO LAYING THE GROUNDWORK FOR AN
EVENTUAL "GRACEFUL" DEPARTURE FROM POWER.


14. (C) GABON DOES NOT HAVE A GREAT DEAL TO SHOW FOR OVER
TWO DECADES OF WINDFALL OIL REVENUES, ASIDE FROM THE
PRIVATE WEALTH ACCUMULATED BY A RELATIVELY FEW INDIVIDUALS
CLOSE TO THE PRESIDENT. THE LARGE MAJORITY OF THE
COUNTRY'S WEALTH IS ESTIMATED TO BE HELD BY LESS THAN
50,000 OF ITS 1.2 MILLION CITIZENS, ALTHOUGH THE GOVERNMENT
IS CAREFUL NOT TO COLLECT OR PUBLISH STATISTICS THAT WOULD
ALLOW A RELIABLE ASSESSMENT. DESPITE THE LACK OF DATA,
WORLD BANK ANALYSTS PRIVATELY ESTIMATE THAT GABON MAY HAVE
ONE OF THE HIGHEST INCOME DISPARITIES OF ANY COUNTRY IN THE
WORLD. ONE THING THAT IS CLEAR IS THAT ONCE THERE IS NO
LONGER A STEADY FLOW OF CASH TO CALM THOSE WHO MIGHT
PROTEST SUCH INEQUALITY, BONGO (OR WHOEVER REPLACES HIM)
WILL BE LEFT TO RELY ON HIS CONSIDERABLE OTHER SKILLS OF
PERSUASION TO PREVENT DISSATISFACTION FROM GETTING OUT OF
CONTROL.

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UPCOMING LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS
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15. (C) THE UPCOMING DECEMBER LEGISLATIVE ELECTIONS, AND
THE SUCCESS OR FAILURE OF THE OPPOSITION, WILL PROVIDE SOME
MEASURE OF THE GABONESE PEOPLE'S SATISFACTION WITH THE
STATUS QUO. THE ELECTIONS WILL UNDOUBTEDLY TEST PRESIDENT
BONGO'S SKILLS OF PERSUASION AND DEMONSTRATE THE EXTENT OF
HIS POLITICAL INFLUENCE. THE ELECTIONS WILL BE THE FIRST
TO OCCUR SINCE BONGO WAS RETURNED FOR A FIFTH TERM IN 1998.
THOSE ELECTIONS, THOUGH UNQUESTIONABLY MORE OPEN THAN THEIR
PREDECESSORS, WERE MARRED BY IRREGULARITIES THAT GENERALLY
FAVORED THE INCUMBENT, INCLUDING INCOMPLETE AND INACCURATE
ELECTORAL LISTS AND THE USE OF FALSE DOCUMENTS TO CAST
VOTES. DESPITE THE FLAWS, MOST INTERNATIONAL OBSERVERS
CONCLUDED AT THE TIME THAT THE RESULT GENERALLY REFLECTED
THE POPULAR WILL. THE OPPOSITION BELIEVES THE RULING PARTY
(PARTI DEMOCRATIQUE GABONAIS -- PDG) FIXED THE 1998
ELECTIONS, AND MANY GABONESE ANTICIPATE SIMILAR BEHAVIOR
THIS YEAR. THE ACCUSATION TENDS, HOWEVER, TO GLOSS OVER
THE FACT THAT THE OPPOSITION RAN A FRAGMENTED AND FECKLESS
CAMPAIGN. BONGO HIMSELF IS CLEARLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE
UPCOMING ELECTIONS, BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL WHETHER HIS
PARTY FACES ANY REAL DANGER OF LOSING ITS MAJORITY IN
PARLIAMENT. THE CAMPAIGN WILL ALSO BE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR
THE OPPOSITION TO DEMONSTRATE WHETHER IT LEARNED FROM ITS
1998 MISTAKES.

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OPPOSITION LEADERS IN GABON
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16. (C) BONGO'S WIN IN 1998 WEAKENED AND DISHEARTENED THE
ALREADY FRAGMENTED GABONESE OPPOSITION. AFTER 34 YEARS OF
THE SAME PARTY IN POWER, THE POPULATION HAS GROWN
APATHETIC, WITH MANY YOUNGER PEOPLE REFUSING TO GO TO THE
TROUBLE TO VOTE. BONGO'S APPROACH IN DEALING WITH THE
OPPOSITION HAS MIRRORED HIS MANAGEMENT OF THE GOVERNMENT:
PAYOFFS AND CO-OPTATION. FEW OPPOSITION LEADERS HAVE
RESISTED HIS TEMPTATIONS, FURTHER REDUCING THEIR INFLUENCE
WITH A CYNICAL ELECTORATE. IN THE NEAR TERM, WE EXPECT THE
OPPOSITION TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK UNLESS RADICAL EVENTS
SHAKE BONGO'S GRIP ON POWER.


17. (C) FORMER FINANCE MINISTER AND BONGO ALLY-TURNED-
OPPONENT JEAN-PIERRE LEMBOUMBA IS NOT PARTICULARLY VISIBLE
IN THE GABONESE POLITICAL SCENE TODAY. KNOWN TO HAVE
AMASSED CONSIDERABLE WEALTH AS A RESULT OF CROOKED DEALINGS
DURING HIS FINANCE MINISTRY DAYS, LEMBOUMBA NOW LIMITS HIS
POLITICAL ACTIVITY TO FINANCING OPPOSITION PARTIES AND
NEWSPAPERS. RUMORS CONTEND THAT HE MAY HAVE RECONCILED
WITH BONGO AND MADE A DEAL, PROMISING TO TONE DOWN HIS
OPPOSITION RHETORIC.


18. (C) PIERRE MAMBOUNDOU, PRESIDENT OF THE GABONESE
PEOPLE'S UNION (UPG),IS KNOWN AS THE LEADER OF THE "REAL"
OPPOSITION. THE SECOND-PLACE FINISHER IN THE 1998
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTIONS, MAMBOUNDOU HEADS THE HIGH COUNCIL
OF THE RESISTANCE, A GROUP OF TEN OPPOSITION PARTIES THAT
MEETS WEEKLY TO STRATEGIZE. A REPUTEDLY HONEST MAN WHO
SUPPORTS HIS CLAIMS WITH FACTS, HE MAY BE THE ONLY MAJOR
OPPOSITION FIGURE WHO HAS NOT TAKEN MONEY FROM BONGO.


19. (C) MANY CONTEND THAT LONG-TIME OPPOSITION LEADER AND
LIBREVILLE MAYOR PAUL MBA-ABESSOLE IS NO LONGER A SERIOUS
THREAT TO THE PRESIDENT. FATHER MBA-ABESSOLE (HE IS ALSO A
CATHOLIC PRIEST),WHO LEADS GABON'S OLDEST AND LARGEST
OPPOSITION PARTY, IS WIDELY VIEWED TO HAVE BEEN CO-OPTED BY
BONGO. HIS PARTY, LONG CALLED THE NATIONAL RALLY OF
LUMBERJACKS, RECENTLY CHANGED ITS NAME TO THE LESS COLORFUL
"RALLY FOR GABON". THE NAME CHANGE WAS ACCOMPANIED BY AN
AIRING OF THE PARTY'S DIRTY LAUNDRY, WITH THE MORE VOCAL
CRITICS OF THE REGIME LEAVING TO CHART THEIR OWN POLITICAL
COURSE. DURING THIS STRIFE THE PARTY NEWSPAPER "LE
RASSEMBLEUR" (FORMERLY "LE BUCHERON" -- "THE LUMBERJACK"),
WHICH FOR YEARS PUBLISHED SCATHING ALLEGATIONS OF
PRESIDENTIAL CORRUPTION, HAS CONSIDERABLY TONED DOWN ITS
ATTACKS.

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CONCLUSION
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20. (C) OMAR BONGO HAS BECOME ONE OF AFRICA'S (AND THE
WORLD'S) LONGEST-SERVING HEADS OF STATE BY BUILDING A
CAREFUL BALANCE OF COMPETING ETHNIC INTERESTS AND OILING IT
GENEROUSLY WITH PETROLEUM REVENUES. AS THE OIL MONEY DRIES
UP, BONGO -- OR HIS SUCCESSOR -- WILL FIND THE MACHINE
INCREASINGLY DIFFICULT TO KEEP RUNNING. FOR NOW, HOWEVER,
SATISFACTION WITH THE STATUS QUO ON THE PART OF THOSE WHO
BENEFIT FROM IT, AND FEAR OF THE STRIFE THAT MIGHT REPLACE
IT ON THE PART OF THOSE WHO DON'T, KEEP BONGO FIRMLY IN
CONTROL. FOR THAT REASON THE DECEMBER LEGISLATIVE
ELECTIONS WILL LIKELY SAY MORE ABOUT THE REGIME'S
WILLINGNESS TO CONTINUE TO RELAX ITS CONTROLS ON GABON'S
VERSION OF DEMOCRACY THAN THEY WILL ABOUT HOW GABON WILL BE
GOVERNED IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS.

LEDESMA