AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE - AND UBL SPEECH

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KUWAIT 003338

E.O. 12958: DECL: 11/04/21
TAGS: PREL PTER AF KU
SUBJECT: AFGHANISTAN'S FUTURE - AND UBL SPEECH

REF: A. STATE 192153 B. STATE 190913

CLASSIFIED BY AMBASSADOR RICHARD H. JONES,
REASON: 1.5 (B) AND (D).

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SUMMARY
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1. (S) USAMA BIN LADEN'S NOVEMBER 3 STATEMENT WAS
THE SPEECH OF A DESPERATE MAN DISAPPOINTED THAT
HIS PREVIOUS STATEMENTS HAD NOT GENERATED GREATER
SUPPORT IN THE MUSLIM WORLD, KUWAIT MFA
UNDERSECRETARY AL-JARALLAH TOLD THE AMBASSADOR
NOVEMBER 4. AL-JARALLAH DID NOT EXPRESS CONCERN
ABOUT THE PROSPECTS OF MILITARY OPERATIONS
CONTINUING DURING RAMADAN, NOTING THAT THE
AFGHANIS THEMSELVES HAD NOT RESPECTED RAMADAN
WHEN FIGHTING AMONG THEMSELVES. HE REAFFIRMED
KUWAITI - AND GCC - SUPPORT FOR REACHING OUR
COMMON GOAL -- THE END FOR THE TALABAN, UBL, AND
AL-QAIDA.

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AFGHANISTAN: GCC COUNTRIES STAND WITH US
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2. (S) THE AMBASSADOR DREW EXTENSIVELY FROM REF A
IN A DISCUSSION ON AFGHANISTAN NOVEMBER 4 WITH
MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS UNDERSECRETARY KHALID
AL-JARALLAH. AL-JARALLAH, EXPRESSING
APPRECIATION FOR THE BRIEFING, AGREED THAT THE
SITUATION IN AFGHANISTAN PRESENTED DIFFICULT
CHALLENGES. IT POSED A THREAT NOT ONLY FOR
WESTERN COUNTRIES, HE SAID, BUT ALSO COUNTRIES IN
THIS REGION. THE COUNTRIES OF THE GCC, HE ADDED,
ARE READY TO WORK TOGETHER WITH THE U.S., THE
U.K., AND THE COALITION TO REACH OUR COMMON GOAL
- THE END FOR THE TALABAN, USAMA BIN LADEN, AND
AL-QAIDA.

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UBL SPEECH: SIGN OF DESPERATION
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3. (S) AL-JARALLAH RAISED THE SPEECH BY USAMA BIN
LADEN BROADCAST THE EVENING BEFORE. IT WAS A VERY
STRANGE SPEECH, HE SAID. IN HIS ASSESSMENT, IT
WAS A SPEECH OF A DESPERATE MAN. WHEN UBL USED
THE EXPRESSION "WA ISLAMA" (AN EXPRESSION USED BY
MUSLIMS NEEDING HELP IN TOUGH CIRCUMSTANCES),IT
INDICATED THAT HE WAS FEELING DEEPLY DEPRESSED.


4. (S) ELABORATING, AL-JARALLAH SAID THAT HE
THOUGHT UBL HAD EXPECTED THAT HIS FIRST SPEECH
AFTER THE BOMBING BEGAN (WITH AL-QAIDA SPOKESMAN
BU GAITH AT HIS SIDE) WOULD CREATE A STRONG
SPIRIT OF SUPPORT IN THE ISLAMIC WORLD. IN FACT,
THERE HAS BEEN VERY LITTLE REACTION. THERE HAVE
BEEN SOME DEMONSTRATIONS IN PAKISTAN, BUT THEY
HAVE BEEN SMALLER THAN EXPECTED AND APPARENTLY
DECREASING, AND THERE HAVE BEEN SOME POPULAR
EXPRESSIONS OF SUPPORT IN PLACES LIKE INDONESIA.
OVERALL, HOWEVER, THE REACTION HAS BEEN MINIMAL.
BECAUSE OF THIS, UBL IS DISAPPOINTED AND
DESPERATE, AL-JARALLAH SAID.


5. (S) THE AMBASSADOR THANKED AL-JARALLAH FOR HIS
INSIGHT AND NOTED THAT PUBLIC STATEMENTS BY
PROMINENT KUWAITIS -- EITHER FROM INSIDE THE
GOVERNMENT, THE EDUCATION AND RELIGIOUS
ESTABLISHMENTS, OR THE PRIVATE SECTOR -- REFUTING
UBL'S ALLEGATIONS WOULD BE EXTREMELY HELPFUL IN
OUR EFFORTS TO REFUTE UBL PROPAGANDA.

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RAMADAN OPERATIONS: KUWAIT NOT CONCERNED
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5. (S) AL-JARALLAH RESPONDED CALMLY TO THE POINT
REGARDING THE HIGH PROBABILITY THAT THE MILITARY
CAMPAIGN WOULD CONTINUE THROUGH RAMADAN. HE DID
NOT THINK THIS SHOULD BE A SOURCE OF UNDUE
CONCERN. OBSERVING THAT SOME 30,000 AFGHANIS HAD
DIED IN AFGHAN INTERNAL FIGHTING, HE NOTED THAT
THE AFGHANIS HAD NOT RESPECTED RAMADAN WHEN THEY
WERE FIGHTING AMONG THEMSELVES.

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NORTHERN ALLIANCE READY TO MOVE?
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6. (S) AL-JARALLAH NOTED NEWS REPORTS OF B-52
BOMBING NEAR NORTHERN ALLIANCE FRONT LINES OVER
THE PAST TWO-THREE DAYS, AND THOUGHT THERE MIGHT
BE A GOOD CHANCE THAT THE NORTHERN ALLIANCE WOULD
BE ABLE TO MOVE FORWARD SOON AND "ACHIEVE
SOMETHING." THE AMBASSADOR AGREED RECENT NEWS
REPORTS WERE MORE ENCOURAGING BUT STRESSED IT WAS
TOO SOON TO MAKE PREDICTIONS.

JONES