HOW JOSEPH KABILA BECAME PRESIDENT; CONVERSATIONS

S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 02 KINSHASA 001610

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/26/2011
TAGS: PGOV PREL CG
SUBJECT: HOW JOSEPH KABILA BECAME PRESIDENT; CONVERSATIONS
WITH A "KING MAKER"

REF: A. KINSHASA 1594

B. KINSHASA 1253

CLASSIFIED BY POLOFF JONATHAN PRATT FOR REASONS 1.5 (B/D)

--------------
SUMMARY
--------------


1. (S) WHEN IT BECAME CLEAR THAT LAURENT KABILA'S GUNSHOT
WOUNDS WERE FATAL, CHIEF OF STAFF GEORGES BUSE AND DEPUTY
CHIEF OF STAFF JEAN MBUYU, IN CONSULTATION WITH SEVERAL OTHER
MEMBERS OF THE PRESIDENTIAL CABINET, MET TO DECIDE ON A
SUCCESSOR. THEY SETTLED ON HIS SON JOSEPH AS THE ONLY PERSON
WHO COULD HOLD TOGETHER VARIOUS GOVERNMENT AND MILITARY
FACTIONS. THE TASK OF SELLING THEIR CHOICE TO OTHER POWER
BROKERS WAS NOT EASY. OLD GUARD HARD-LINERS KAKUDJI, MWENZE,
AND YERODIA RESISTED. KAKUDJI REPORTEDLY WANTED TO BE
PRESIDENT HIMSELF. MILITARY COMMANDERS ALSO HAD TO BE
CONVINCED, BUT THIS WASN'T AS DIFFICULT SINCE JOSEPH WAS WELL
KNOWN AND GENERALLY RESPECTED WITHIN THE MILITARY. AN
UNEXPECTED OBSTACLE WAS JOSEPH'S INITIAL RELUCTANCE TO ACCEPT
THE OFFER. ONCE THIS WAS OVERCOME, BUSE AND MBUYU PRESENTED
JOSEPH KABILA TO THE REST OF THE GOVERNMENT AS THE NEW
PRESIDENT.


2. (C) BIOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION FOR JEAN MBUYU IS INCLUDED IN
THIS CABLE. BIO DATA FOR OTHER KEY PLAYERS IN JOSEPH
KABILA'S GOVERNMENT WILL FOLLOW SEPTEL ONCE THE NEW CABINET
IS SELECTED (ANNOUNCEMENT IS REPORTED TO BE IMMINENT.)


--------------
CHOOSING A SUCCESSOR
--------------


3. (S) A HIGHLY RELIABLE EMBASSY CONTACT RELATED TO POLOFF
MARCH 25 A RECENT CONVERSATION HE HAD WITH PRESIDENTIAL
ADVISOR JEAN MBUYU. MBUYU, CURRENTLY SERVING AS JOSEPH
KABILA'S SPECIAL ADVISOR FOR SECURITY, WAS LAURENT KABILA'S
DEPUTY CHIEF OF STAFF WHEN THE PRESIDENT WAS ASSASSINATED.
ACCORDING TO MBUYU, HE AND CHIEF OF STAFF GEORGES BUSE WERE
THE PRIMARY PLAYERS IN SELECTING LAURENT KABILA'S SUCCESSOR.


4. (S) MBUYU TOLD CONTACT THAT IT WAS CLEAR WITHIN HOURS
AFTER HE HAD BEEN SHOT THAT LAURENT KABILA WAS NOT GOING TO
SURVIVE. MBUYU SAID THAT HE AND CHIEF OF STAFF GEORGES BUSE,
IN CONSULTATION WITH SEVERAL OTHER UNSPECIFIED MEMBERS OF
LAURENT KABILA'S PRESIDENTIAL CABINET, SAT DOWN THE EVENING
OF JANUARY 16 TO DECIDE ON A SUCCESSOR. JOSEPH WAS THEIR
IMMEDIATE AND OBVIOUS CHOICE. IN THEIR VIEW, HE WAS HE ONLY
PERSON WHO COULD UNIFY THE VARIOUS FACTIONS WITHIN THE
GOVERNMENT AND COMMAND THE RESPECT OF THE MILITARY.


5. (S) BUSE AND MBUYU WERE PARTICULARLY CONCERNED ABOUT
MAINTAINING THE LOYALTY OF THE VARIOUS MILITARY FACTIONS,
SINCE THE FAC HAD BEEN PIECED TOGETHER FROM UNITS THAT WERE
RECRUITED AND TRAINED IN DIFFERENT REGIONS. MOST WERE
RECRUITED IN KATANGA AND THE KIVUS; SOME HAD BEEN TRAINED IN
ANGOLA AND ZIMBABWE. BUSE AND MBUYU BELIEVED THAT JOSEPH WAS
THE ONLY FIGURE WHO WOULD BE PERCEIVED TO HAVE LEGITIMACY IN
THE EYES OF THE DIVERSE MILITARY COALITIONS. HE HAD VISITED
ALL OF THE CAMPS DURING HIS TENURE AS COMMANDER OF GROUND
FORCES, AND HAD MARCHED ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH THEM IN
1996-97. IN THEIR VIEW, KABILA WAS WELL REGARDED BY THE
ARMED FORCES.


6. (S) MBUYU SAID THAT HE AND BUSE INSTRUCTED MILITARY AIDE
DE CAMP EDDY KAPEND TO GO ON TELEVISION THE NIGHT OF JANUARY
16TH TO APPEAL FOR CALM AND ORDER. AS A MEMBER OF THE
PRESIDENTIAL CABINET, KAPEND WAS THE MOST ACCESSIBLE MILITARY
OFFICER. PERHAPS MORE CRUCIAL, BUSE AND MBUYU JUDGED THAT
KAPEND HAD THE SUPPORT OF GENERAL YAV NAWEJ, WHO DESPITE HIS
ARREST "REMAINS A POWERFUL MILITARY FIGURE, RESPECTED AND
FEARED BY THE FAC IN KINSHASA."


--------------
MAKING THE HARD SELL
--------------


7. (S) BUSE AND MBUYU WERE REPORTEDLY CONVINCED THEY WOULD
HAVE A HARD TIME PERSUADING HARD-LINERS KAKUDJI, MWENZE, AND
YERODIA TO ACCEPT JOSEPH. INTERIOR MINISTER KAKUDJI PROVED
TO BE THE TOUGHEST SELL, AS HE HIMSELF HAD PRESIDENTIAL
ASPIRATIONS. MBUYU DID NOT INDICATE WHAT DEALS MIGHT HAVE
BEEN STRUCK TO OBTAIN KAKUDJI'S APPROVAL, BUT DID SAY THAT
AFTER MUCH ARM TWISTING AND INTERNAL "SHUTTLE DIPLOMACY"
KAKUDJI EVENTUALLY RELENTED. JUSTICE MINISTER MWENZE KONGOLO
AND ABDOULAYE YERODIA (FORMERLY MINISTER OF FOREIGN AFFAIRS,
NOW MINISTER OF EDUCATION) WERE RESISTANT AT FIRST BUT GAVE
IN MORE EASILY THAN KAKUDJI.


8. (S) MBUYU SAID THAT HE AND BUSE NEXT APPROACHED THE KEY
MILITARY COMMANDERS (CONTACT REPORTED MBUYU SPECIFICALLY
MENTIONED GENERAL LWETCHA) TO GET THEIR APPROVAL. THIS
WASN'T A PROBLEM, ACCORDING TO MBUYU, SINCE JOSEPH IS WELL
REGARDED IN THE MILITARY, AND THE COMMANDERS WERE PLEASED
THAT SOMEONE WITH AN ARMY BACKGROUND WOULD ASSUME CONTROL.


9. (S) THE FINAL HURDLE WAS CONVINCING JOSEPH HIMSELF OF THE
PLAN. THIS PROVED TO BE MORE DIFFICULT THAN EXPECTED AS
JOSEPH WAS INITIALLY "VERY RESISTANT" TO THE IDEA. MBUYU DID
NOT CONVEY JOSEPH'S REASONS FOR BALKING AT THE PROPOSAL
(JOSEPH MAY NOT HAVE PROVIDED AN EXPLANATION) BUT MBUYU
SPECULATED THAT PERSONAL SECURITY WAS PROBABLY CHIEF AMONG
HIS CONCERNS.


10. (S) ONCE THEY HAD SECURED JOSEPH'S AGREEMENT, BUSE AND
MBUYU CONVOKED ALL GOVERNMENT MINISTERS AND PRESENTED JOSEPH
KABILA AS THE SUCCESSOR TO HIS FATHER. "HERE IS YOUR NEW
PRESIDENT," IS HOW MBUYU DESCRIBED THE ANNOUNCEMENT. "THERE
WAS LITTLE DISCUSSION," REPORTED MBUYU. THE TWENTY THREE
OTHER MINISTERS LOOKED TO KAKUDJI, MWENZE, AND YERODIA TO
GAUGE WHETHER OR NOT JOSEPH HAD THEIR SUPPORT. "THE DEAL WAS
SEALED" WHEN THESE THREE KEY FIGURES EXPRESSED THEIR SUPPORT
(OR AT LEAST DIDN'T EXPRESS OPPOSITION). ACCORDING TO MBUYU,
ALL THAT REMAINED WERE THE "DETAILS" OF ANNOUNCING THE
SUCCESSION AND FIGURING OUT UNDER WHAT LEGAL AUTHORITY JOSEPH
COULD BE NAMED PRESIDENT.

--------------
BIO INFORMATION: JEAN MBUYU
--------------


11. (C) SAID TO BE IN HIS MID-FORTIES, "MBUYU" IS A MULUBA
FROM NORTH KATANGA (OTHERWISE KNOWN AS A "MULUBAKAT.") HIS
MOTHER IS RUMORED TO BE RWANDAN, A CLAIM THAT HAS ALSO BEEN
MADE OF JOSEPH KABILA. MBUYU ATTENDED LAW SCHOOL AND
PRACTICED LAW IN LUBUMBASHI, EVENTUALLY BECOMING HEAD OF THE
LUBUMBASHI BAR ASSOCIATION IN 1991. MBUYU CREATED A HUMAN
RIGHTS ORGANIZATION IN LUBUMBASHI CALLED "THE COMMITTEE FOR
THE DEFENSE OF HUMAN RIGHTS" (CDH),WHICH STILL EXISTS TODAY.
MBUYU GAINED A MEASURE OF PROMINENCE IN 1990 WHEN HE WAS
JAILED FOR DENOUNCING THE STUDENT MASSACRE OF MAY 12, 1990 IN
LUBUMBASHI. JESUIT MISSIONARIES PRESSURED THE GOVERNMENT TO
RELEASE HIM. MBUYU PARTICIPATED IN THE NATIONAL SOVEREIGN
CONFERENCE OF 1991-2 AS A REPRESENTATIVE OF KATANGAN CIVIL
SOCIETY AND BECAME A MEMBER OF THE TRANSITIONAL PARLIAMENT
UNDER MOBUTU. MBUYU WAS AN EMBASSY IV PARTICIPANT IN 1991
AND LATER A "FELLOW" AT THE INTERNATIONAL HUMAN RIGHTS LAW
GROUP IN WASHINGTON, DC FROM 1994-96. MBUYU SUBSEQUENTLY
ATTENDED THE UNIVERSITY OF NOTRE DAME LAW SCHOOL AND RECEIVED
HIS L.L.M. IN 1997. HIS WIFE, A NURSE, REPORTEDLY STILL
LIVES IN INDIANA. PROBABLY DUE IN PART TO FAMILY TIES (MBUYU
IS SAID TO BE LAURENT KABILA'S COUSIN),KABILA CHOSE MBUYU TO
BE HIS LEGAL ADVISOR. KABILA THEN PROMOTED MBUYU TO DEPUTY
CHIEF OF STAFF. FOLLOWING THE PRESIDENT'S ASSASSINATION,
MBUYU CONTINUED TO SERVE AS POLITICAL ADVISOR TO JOSEPH
KABILA AND ALSO ACTED AS HIS LIAISON WITH THE POLITICAL
OPPOSITION (REF A). JOSEPH KABILA APPOINTED MBUYU SPECIAL
ADVISOR FOR SECURITY ON MARCH 8. MBUYU SPEAKS ENGLISH BUT
PREFERS FRENCH.

--------------
COMMENT
--------------


12. (C) THE REPLACEMENT OF CHIEF OF STAFF GEORGES BUSE WITH
THEOPHILE MBEMBA (THE FORMER GOVERNOR OF KINSHASA) LEAVES
JEAN MBUYU AS THE ONLY "KING MAKER" IN JOSEPH'S GOVERNMENT.
THIS APPEARS TO AFFORD HIM CONSIDERABLE CLOUT IN THE NEW
ADMINISTRATION. THAT SEVERAL OF MBUYU'S CLOSE COLLEAGUES
WERE TAPPED TO OTHER POSITIONS IN THE PRESIDENTIAL CABINET
(REF B),AND THAT JOSEPH HAS RELIED ON MBUYU FOR SEVERAL KEY
TASKS (SUCH AS LIAISON WITH THE OPPOSITION) APPEAR TO CONFIRM
HIS GROWING INFLUENCE.


13. (C) IF THE SCENARIO DESCRIBED ABOVE IS ACCURATE, IT IS
SURPRISING THAT MBUYU HIMSELF WAS NOT CHOSEN TO BE CHIEF OF
STAFF. JOSEPH MAY PREFER TO RELY ON MBUYU AS A TRUSTED
ADVISOR RATHER THAN PLACING HIM DIRECTLY IN CHARGE OF HIS
STAFF. OR, CONSCIOUS OF MBUYU'S KEY ROLE IN HIS OWN
SELECTION, JOSEPH MAY BE LEERY OF GIVING HIM TOO MUCH POWER.

SWING