MEETING WITH LEADERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 01 OF 02 HARARE 000969

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TPFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI SA MDC
SUBJECT: MEETING WITH LEADERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE


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PAGE 02 HARARE 00969 01 OF 02 091557Z
REFTEL: HARARE 919

CLASSIFIED BY CHARGE D'AFFAIRES EARL M. IRVING FOR
REASONS 1.5 (B) AND (D).


1. (C) SUMMARY: ON MARCH 9, ACTING PRINCIPAL DEPUTY
ASSISTANT SECRETARY MARK BELLAMY HELD DISCUSSIONS WITH
MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC) PRESIDENT MORGAN
TSVANGIRAI ON THE STATE OF ZIMBABWE'S POLITICAL CRISIS

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AND WHAT CONSTRUCTIVE ROLE THE U.S. COULD PLAY, IF ANY,
TO HELP RESOLVE THE SITUATION. THE MDC LEADERSHIP
CALLED FOR AN EMINENT PERSON TO CONVINCE MUGABE TO ALTER
HIS BEHAVIOR AND STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF HAVING
FOREIGN ELECTION MONITORS IN ADVANCE OF THE EARLY 2002
PRESIDENTIAL POLL. THE MDC'S MEETING WITH THE RULING
ANC OF SOUTH AFRICA, ZANU-PF'S INTIMIDATION CAMPAIGN,
PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION DYNAMICS WERE ALSO DISCUSSED. ON
MARCH 8, BELLAMY MET WITH MDC MP DAVID COLTART, WHO
ARGUED THAT MOST OF THE POLITICAL KILLINGS AND
INTIMIDATION CAN BE TIED DIRECTLY TO 10 OR 12 ZANU-PF
LEADERS. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY SHOULD CONDEMN THE
CULTURE OF IMPUNITY THAT PERMEATES THE COUNTRY AND HOLD
ACCOUNTABLE THOSE LEADERS WHO BENEFIT FROM IT. END
SUMMARY.


2. (C) ON MARCH 9, ACTING PRINCIPAL DEPUTY ASSISTANT
SECRETARY MARK BELLAMY, ACCOMPANIED BY CHARGE AND POLOFF

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(NOTETAKER) MET MOVEMENT FOR DEMOCRATIC CHANGE (MDC)
PRESIDENT MORGAN TSVANGIRAI FOR AN HOUR-LONG BREAKFAST
MEETING AT THE CHARGE'S RESIDENCE. TSVANGIRAI WAS
ACCOMPANIED BY MDC SECRETARY-GENERAL WELSHMAN NCUBE AND
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MDC DIRECTOR OF ELECTIONS AND GWANDA NORTH MP PAUL
NYATHI. THE DISCUSSION WAS VERY OPEN AND CORDIAL.

ANC NOT ENCOURAGING
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3. (C) NCUBE ELUCIDATED ON THE MDC'S RECENT TALKS WITH
THE AFRICAN NATIONAL CONGRESS (ANC) IN SOUTH AFRICA.
ALL THE MDC LEADERS PRESENT SEEMED DISMAYED WITH THE
ANC'S POSITION AT THESE MEETINGS. NCUBE REPORTED THAT
THE ANC'S MAIN MESSAGE TO THE MDC WAS THAT IT SHOULD
ENGAGE IN DIALOGUE WITH THE RULING ZIMBABWE AFRICAN
NATIONAL UNION-PATRIOTIC FRONT (ZANU-PF),AND THAT IT
COULD NEGOTIATE A RETURN TO THE RULE OF LAW WITH THE
GOVERNMENT OF ZIMBABWE. TSVANGIRAI REMARKED
RHETORICALLY "WHY SHOULD WE NEGOTIATE SOMETHING THAT THE
GOZ SHOULD BE DOING ALREADY?" HE ADDED THAT THE ANC
SUGGESTED THAT, IF THE MDC AND GOZ WERE SEEN NEGOTIATING
A RETURN TO NORMALCY, SOUTH AFRICA COULD THEN PUSH THE
IFIS AND INTERNATIONAL DONORS TO RESUME LENDING AND AID
PROGRAMS. BELLAMY SAID THE ANC POSITION WAS
INCOMPREHENSIBLE AND UNHELPFUL. NCUBE BELIEVED THE ANC
TOOK THIS POSITION BECAUSE IT WANTS TO GET OFF THE HOT
SEAT SO IT CAN TELL THE WORLD THAT ZIMBABWEANS ARE
WORKING OUT THEIR OWN PROBLEMS.

ZANU-PF VIOLENCE CONTINUES
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4. (C) THE MDC LEADERS WENT ON TO DESCRIBE ZANU-PF'S
LATEST INTIMIDATION TACTICS. NCUBE REPORTED THAT THE
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PARTY HAS SET UP WAR VETERAN CAMPS THROUGHOUT
MASHONALAND CENTRAL AND EAST PROVINCES, AND THAT THESE
WAR VETERANS AND YOUTHS IN THE LAST TWO WEEKS HAVE
EMBARKED ON A CAMPAIGN OF VIOLENCE AND TERROR. LOCAL
MDC LEADERS AND YOUTH ARE BEING SINGLED OUT FOR SEVERE
BEATINGS, NCUBE CLAIMED. GURUVE AND SHAMVA DISTRICTS
HAVE BECOME "NO-GO" AREAS FOR THE MDC. MANY LOCAL MDC
SUPPORTERS, NOT JUST IN MASHONALAND, ARE NOT ORGANIZING
FOR THE PARTY OUT OF FEAR FOR THEIR SAFETY. MANY WILL
NOT EVEN SHOW UP A RALLIES WHERE MDC LEADERS SPEAK. IN
RELATION TO THE RECENT DEATH OF WHITE FARMER GLORIA OLDS
(REFTEL),NYATHI STATED THAT IN BULAWAYO HE OVERHEARD
VICE-PRESIDENT MSIKA TALKING ABOUT OLDS' DEATH TO A
COLLEAGUE IN NDEBELE. MSIKA REPORTEDLY SAID "WE FIXED
HER" AND "THEY THOUGHT WE WERE JOKING."

ELECTION DYNAMICS
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5. (C) IN REGARD TO THE UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION,
TSVANGIRAI STATED THAT HE NO LONGER BELIEVES MUGABE WILL

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HOLD AN EARLY ELECTION. A FREE AND FAIR ELECTION IS NOT
POSSIBLE IN THE MASHONALAND PROVINCES BECAUSE OF THE
HIGH LEVEL OF INTIMIDATION THEY HAVE SUFFERED SINCE

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ACTION AF-00

INFO LOG-00 NP-00 ACQ-00 CIAE-00 USNW-00 DINT-00 DODE-00
DOTE-00 SRPP-00 DS-00 EB-00 EUR-00 FAAE-00 FBIE-00
VC-00 H-01 TEDE-00 INR-00 IO-00 LAB-01 L-00
VCE-00 AC-01 NSAE-00 NSCE-00 OMB-01 OPIC-01 PA-00
PM-00 PRS-00 ACE-00 P-00 SP-00 SSO-00 TRSE-00
USIE-00 R-00 PMB-00 DSCC-00 DRL-02 G-00 NFAT-00
SAS-00 SWCI-00 /007W
-------------- CFC1A8 091557Z /38
O 091555Z MAR 01
FM AMEMBASSY HARARE
TO SECSTATE WASHDC IMMEDIATE 8388
INFO SOUTHERN AFRICAN DEVELOPMENT COMMUNITY
AMEMBASSY NAIROBI

C O N F I D E N T I A L SECTION 02 OF 02 HARARE 000969

SIPDIS

LONDON FOR CHARLES GURNEY

PARIS FOR BISA WILLIAMS

NAIROBI FOR TPFLAUMER

E.O. 12958: DECL: 03/09/11
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR ZI SA MDC
SUBJECT: MEETING WITH LEADERS OF THE MOVEMENT FOR
DEMOCRATIC CHANGE

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PAGE 02 HARARE 00969 02 OF 02 091557Z
EARLY LAST YEAR. NONETHELESS, THE MDC COULD STILL
GARNER 40 PERCENT OF THE VOTES THERE, TSVANGIRAI
BELIEVES. THE KEY BATTLEGROUND WILL BE ZIMBABWE'S MOST
POPULOUS PROVINCES, MIDLANDS AND MASVINGO, WHERE A
CANDIDATE NEEDS TO WIN ONLY 60 PERCENT OF THE VOTE TO
WIN THE ENTIRE ELECTION, NCUBE OFFERED. ZANU-PF HAS
ANTAGONIZED THESE PROVINCES AND OTHERS TO SUCH AN
EXTENT, THAT IT IS DIFFICULT TO SEE THEIR CANDIDATE
WINNING A MAJORITY OF VOTES THERE.

WHAT CAN THE U.S. DO?
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6. (C) BELLAMY ASKED THE MDC LEADERS WHAT ROLE THE U.S.
COULD PLAY IN THESE TRYING TIMES. NCUBE SUGGESTED A
VISIT BY ANDREW YOUNG WITH PRESIDENT MUGABE MIGHT
ENCOURAGE THE PRESIDENT TO MODERATE HIS POLICIES. THE
OTHER LEADERS SAID THERE IS REALLY NO INTERNATIONAL
FIGURE (OTHER THAN THE QUEEN OF ENGLAND, THEY QUIPPED,
AND THAT WAS NOT GOING TO HAPPEN) WHO COULD INFLUENCE
MUGABE IN ANY MEANINGFUL WAY. ALL THREE EMPHASIZED THAT
THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST "HAMMER HOME" THE
MESSAGE THAT VIOLENCE IS NOT A LEGITIMATE CAMPAIGN TOOL,
AND IT MUST REPEAT IT OVER AND OVER AGAIN IF IT IS TO
HAVE ANY IMPACT. NCUBE STRESSED THE IMPORTANCE OF
HAVING FOREIGN ELECTION MONITORS, AND SUPPORTING AND
TRAINING A LARGE POOL OF DOMESTIC MONITORS DURING, AND
WELL BEFORE, THE ELECTION.

ZANU-PF LEADERS MUST BE BROUGHT TO BOOK
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7. (C) IN A MARCH 8 MEETING WITH BELLAMY, MDC MP DAVID
COLTART ARGUED THAT MOST OF THE KILLINGS OF WHITE
FARMERS, MDC SUPPORTERS, AND GOVERNMENT OPPONENTS CAN BE
TRACED DIRECTLY TO CONSTITUENCIES AND LOCAL
ORGANIZATIONS CONTROLLED BY 10 OR 12 ZANU-PF LEADERS,
MOST NOTABLY SPEAKER OF PARLIAMENT EMMERSON MNANGAGWA
AND MINES AND ENERGY MINISTER SYDNEY SEKERAMAYI. THE
INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY MUST CONDEMN THE CULTURE OF
IMPUNITY THAT PREVAILS IN THE COUNTRY, AND PUT
POLITICIANS WHO USE VIOLENCE ON NOTICE AND HOLD THEM
ACCOUNTABLE, HE SAID. UNLESS THIS MESSAGE IS FORCEFULLY
CONVEYED TO THE GOZ, THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE THAT THE
UPCOMING PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION WILL BE EVEN REMOTELY
FREE AND FAIR, COLTART INSISTED. AN ALL-OUT EFFORT MUST
BE MADE STARTING NOW TO ENSURE A LEVEL PLAYING FIELD
WITH TRANSPARENT PROCESSES AND CAREFUL MONITORING.

IRVING

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